Jessy89
Member
It’s early December would anyone be surprised if this doesn’t happen for most people
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Secondary low is looking great on 18z GFS.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Let's all say it in unison: "Its the 18Z GFS, TOSS IT!"
Round Oak Weather
Member
I thought the CAD looked stronger until I looked at teams and all but idk
ATLwxfan
Member
For Georgia cold rain lovers, this was an ideal run. Given the run to run variability no body has a clue how this turns out. Granted climo isn’t in our favor.
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MichaelJ
Member
If the ensembles move towards the OP's, most of us can stick a fork in this one barring major changes once the sampling comes in. Hopefully it is just a case of the CAD being under modeled which it is quite often
snowlover91
Member
The 850 low went well north this time due to the storm strengthening more as it moved inland. Notice the 850 low is well into Tennessee hence the warm air. That was a big jump north with the 850 low. Let’s see if the ensembles agree or not.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
While I can certainly see areas that are below freezing and under heavy precip possibly warming up to freezing due to intense latent heating, it's gonna be really hard to warm the CAD favored areas of NC, SC, and even far NE GA much beyond that given the northeasterly winds at the surface invoking cold air advection. Knowing how the GFS is in handling CAD, I probably won't take its evolution of the CAD dome seriously unless higher resolution CAMs which have proven their worth in storms like this, such as the RGEM & 3km NAM, support it even then I would proceed w/ caution.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It actually looks like garbage to me. Barely anything for NC and flurries at best for the rest of the upper SE.
Snowflowxxl
Member
18z FV3 crackhead will save us
Storm5
Member
A Deeeee Teeee special Aleet aleet !!!!
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Round Oak Weather
Member
Could argue that’s all snow
At least the FV-3 clown map should look pretty good, since it counts all rain below 45F as snow.
Honestly if Raleigh managed to get an inch of snow I'd be thrilled.
pcbjr
Member
... sounds like the Gainesville, FL, NWS ... LOL ...
1035mb high to the NE with a cold rain for most on the 18z GFS? Yeah right! The FV3 will be more accurate.
It looks better on the 18z run verses previous runs though.
It’s the 18z. We toss.
Jessy89
Member
As strong as the high is. Why isn’t it not at least freezing rain? I really don’t understand this setup