Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Webberweather53]

Keep in mind this GFS run is well within the inter-member variability and spread of both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble suites from this afternoon, which featured both NC and mid-Atlantic hits. We'll need to see a consistent trend in the ensembles for a few days and beyond the time in which this s/w actually gets sampled by RAOBs over the US before feeling any confidence on whether or not to stick a fork in this storm. In CAD favored areas of NC, SC, & NE GA it's probably not wise to do that until the storm is actually happening given the pattern at hand & how poorly NWP often handles CAD. The last few significant CAD events w/ weaker highs in a less favorable position mind you were a few degrees colder than forecast at verification and arguably close shaves for areas like GSP. If it wasn't for the fact we were in November, they could have been big headaches.

 

[Storm5]

Look at the confluence in the NE . The 12z run was more pronounced and further to the SW . The 18z run wasnt as pronounced and further NE

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[Webberweather53]

Look at the confluence in the NE . The 12z run was more pronounced and further to the SW . The 18z run wasnt as pronounced and further NE

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Good luck trying to predict these very fast & fickle northern stream waves 5-6 days in advance

 

[Storm5]

Good luck trying to predict these very fast & fickle northern stream waves 5-6 days in advance

Haha yep that’s evident by the big variations we are seeing each run . Though frustrating , it’s really fascinating to watch


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

FV3 wave stronger and further north in Mexico at 90..ruh roh

 

[MichaelJ]

Actually the EPS 51 member still looked much better than the OP and shows several members with good hits for parts of the area. Can't see much movement towards the EURO at all on the 3:45 run

 

[Sandstorm94]

FV3 wave stronger and further north in Mexico at 90..ruh roh

Slower too, look how much further west it is

 

[Tarheel1]

FV3 wave stronger and further north in Mexico at 90..ruh roh

If we lose that, it’s game over! That’s the best model in the world!

 

[Mitch West]

If we lose that, it’s game over! That’s the best model in the world!

Even if we lose it, it’ll still show 3 feet of something in the NC.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Slower too, look how much further west it is

Not sure but it’s a good bit NW of 12z

 

[Tarheel1]

1037 high, good press, it’s not gonna cut!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If we lose that, it’s game over! That’s the best model in the world!

unfortunately, besides ensembles (for the time being), it’s all we’ve got at this point Mack

 

[Jessy89]

I think we are about to lose the storm outside the mountains

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Some have said it’s better to have the ensembles than the OPs

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs look noice

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is exactly why I'm not trusting op models atm, gefs looked better this run for my area north of clt

 

[Ethan80963]

Can someone post the GEFS?

 

[Snownut]

Gefs this run was good for upstate, but the OP Sux! Dont put all your trust in the OPs.

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[dsaur]

HP will be able to move in a bit faster. Storm itself is a tad slower vs 12z.

One of these days your old house is going to get to ride out an ice storm, and I bet you are still not looking forward to it, lol. If we get super cads this year, look out The worst storm of any kind I ever endured was a cad storm. And so was the second worst. Beware the cad.....

 

[Nick_boynton]

Wow GEFS are outstanding. They do some weird stuff with that secondary system that forms. This could be a prolonged long winter storm for whoever gets hit