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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Forevertothee said:
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Brad P. from Charlotte


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Lmao at Columbia. We can’t win
 
Chris J said if you live north if 85 you have a 60% chance and up but if you live even 3 miles south of 85 you will only get rain 80% of the time.
 
Bsud said:
That red high impact is not far enough south, the likelyhood of winter weather will be down to I85 in the upstate

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The red area simply indicates where a "high impact" event is likely. It doesnt mean areas south of that dont have a high likelihood of winter weather.
 
There should be a cone for winter storms like hurricanes because a shift a few miles this way or that way makes a huge difference in these type setups. Its wild enough this far out, wait until the hi res short range models start to come into range
 
Can we keep Brad’s silly conservative stuff off here? Anyone could have viewed that at the WPC for the past few days. At this range he is not going to post anything meaningful to add to a higher discussion. It would confuse the public .
 
Ethan80963 said:
Chris J said if you live north if 85 you have a 60% chance and up but if you live even 3 miles south of 85 you will only get rain 80% of the time.
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Pretty amazing how consistent the R/S lines are across our areas. Weather is unpredictable but it is cconsistent in this case haha
 
SD said:
I still don't feel very comfortable with the setup. Like I said this morning we are walking a thin line between a decent event and getting nothing at all

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I'm with you, I'm sure if we searched hard enough we could find examples of being on the southeast side of the frozen precip 4 days out and scoring but it's rare extremely rare. Plus as you mentioned thin line for us, I know you've looked at soundings... I mean razor thin

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Brick Tamland said:
Why is that? The model runs look great to me.
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I guess it’s dependent on what makes each of us happy. For me 2-6 of snow with a high chance all of it melting in rain isn’t really “great.”

Models are more encouraging than yesterday for sure. If they continue shifting maybe we can cash in!
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I guess it’s dependent on what makes each of us happy. For me 2-6 of snow with a high chance all of it melting in rain isn’t really “great.”

Models are more encouraging than yesterday for sure. If they continue shifting maybe we can cash in!
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If you get to see 2 to 6 inches of snow fall here the first week of December, you should consider yourself very fortunate.
 
Brick Tamland said:
If you get to see 2 to 6 inches of snow fall here the first week of December, you should consider yourself very fortunate.
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Most Decembers have nothing at all here. If I got 1-2 inches to stick to the ground that would be a big win for me. I'd love to see major totals but I just don't think it is going to be cold enough at the surface for us. West of I-85 is likely to have a major event
 
Quick reminder. Let’s keep the banter in the other thread. We want to keep this one focused on the storm analysis and discussion. With the high volume of folks on here, it can get cluttered up with posts quickly. This makes it difficult for folks to catch up with the analysis when they have to be away for longer periods.

Thanks!
 
DadOfJax said:
Thoughts on Gatlinburg/Cosby TN areas? Thinking about taking the kiddos....
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Yes! Do not take them somewhere dangerous and where it will likely be against the law for non-emergency vehicles to drive (western NC). East TN should be better for travel and offer snow in favored areas for kids.
 
packfan98 said:
Quick reminder. Let’s keep the banter in the other thread. We want to keep this one focused on the storm analysis and discussion. With the high volume of folks on here, it can get cluttered up with posts quickly. This makes it difficult for folks to catch up with the analysis when they have to be away for longer periods.

Thanks!
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:):):):):):cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::p:p:p:p:p:D:D:D:D:D
 
IF the CAD high is in the right place all of upstate SC and most of north GA would get ice, maybe even a bunch of sleet. Both sides of I-85. If it is not then this probably becomes an elevation event. Areas that got hit hard in Dec 2009 would be again while the rest of us see rain. I can not count the number of times we have had rain in our forecast only to get ice or sleet with cad events. The best example is Feb 1987 when we were supposed to only have rain here with a high near 40. Well we got around 2 inches of sleet with temps in the low 20's.
 
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