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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Rain Cold said:
Yeah, at this time, there aren't really any trends. There are oscillations. There are several key features that have the potential to interact in various ways. We've seen some favorable interactions (depending on where you are), and we've seen some unfavorable scenarios (also depending on where you are). Observe output over the next 3 days to determine legitimate trends. We'll be getting into the window where data is better sampled, model skill goes up, and trends will show themselves more reliably.

My guess, based on time of year, availability of cold air, and complexity of the setup is that the best chance for snow will be over the mountains and foothills into western VA and down into NW SC. I favor more of a mixy, icy scenario into the upstate of SC through the Triad of NC and potentially into central VA. The Triangle and down into north-central SC are in the game for some snow/mix before changing to rain cold. That is my favored scenario, but of course it is not set in stone.

We will need to see models lock into a strong high building in ahead of or in tandem with the storm (and not hauling arse OTS), the storm not getting too amped (we don't want early Miller B-ing or Apps Rubbering), and the storm not moving up the coast (at least not along the immediate coastline), if we want the more wintry scenarios farther south and east to pan out. This will be the harder road, but it is doable. Pay attention to how the models and ensembles trend over the next 3 days -- not 2 runs in a row, but over the longer period.
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I like your assessment very well and most likely scenario imo, I just think some have been seeing these insane absurd clown maps and will be let down if we don't get anything close to that
 
Need more ns confluence. It’s imperative we avoid amplification with our southern wave in order to keep it suppressed. If this trend continues at 12z, abandon ship. I sure hope the 06z FV3 is the correct solution

00z GEFS72D36425-24F1-4EC4-942E-3C728A96B4ED.png

06z GEFS
B25CA8D3-D3BF-4228-98BC-C79C664AD122.png
 
WPC probabilities for exceeding 0.25" of liquid equivalent snow & sleet are fairly realistic imo particularly for CAD favored areas of the Carolinas and far NE GA.
Anywhere at least in the deeper green & blue (>30%) can feel some solace in that it's probable some form of wintry precipitation (whether that be snow, sleet, or freezing rain and/or a combination of these) will at least fall from the sky during this storm. Anywhere within and near the light green is still easily in the hunt and should continue monitoring esp considering we still have several days to go.

Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 10.04.07 AM.png
 
FFC:
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
The main concern in the long term is some potential for a winter
mix over far n GA Friday night into Sunday.

Models are rather consistent with developing a Gulf Coast low
pressure system that will spread deep moisture over the area
with a wet period in store starting Friday night and continuing
into Sunday.

The overall question will be is how cold is the airmass as surface
high pressure noses down the eastern Appalachians and the low pressure
system passes to the south. The lowest forecast temperatures are in
the critical range where a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow
can not be ruled out over mainly portions of the GA mountains,
where otherwise a cold rain can be expected. This will be a watch and
monitor to see how the entire system develops or is forecast to develop
with future model runs.
 
Dec 2002 sure looks similar to this potential. Upper low ejects from the south west, miller b, cad, snow/ice.
2002120418.gif

GZ_PN_144_0000.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
WPC probabilities for exceeding 0.25" of liquid equivalent snow & sleet are fairly realistic imo particularly for CAD favored areas of the Carolinas and far NE GA.
Anywhere at least in the deeper green & blue (>30%) can feel some solace in that it's probable some form of wintry precipitation (whether that be snow, sleet, or freezing rain and/or a combination of these) will at least fall from the sky during this storm. Anywhere within and near the light green is still easily in the hunt and should continue monitoring esp considering we still have several days to go.

View attachment 8089
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Yeh I am a little surprised they moved the light green more South into SC considering the overnight models.
 
This things gonna be a thread the needle no matter where u are the low comes to far north your screwed the high to fast your screwed.
 
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Icon is too amp’d. It was looking squashed and then boom it blew up over south Alabama. Not going to cut it
 
I've laughed at the ICON before temp wise, but looking at them, it's a flat out "no" outside of far North NC for anything wintry (and Arkansas on the back end).
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Icon is too amp’d. It was looking squashed and then boom it blew up over south Alabama. Not going to cut it
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I thought it looked better than previous runs, track along southern gulf and over SAV. Probably a big ice storm with that track even though it's showing rain. Does give snow with the 2nd wave that comes through.
 
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