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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

ICON handling the NS different than most modeling, less cold air to work with.... seems the ICON has struggled with temps in the past though so we shall see
 
From a met on another board: “ I would though, not hang my hat on the fact that this CAD high will be there. The 00z GFS, while an outlier, was also completely plausible, with an arctic trough/front creating warm air advection ahead of it in the NE and completely sabotaging the cold air supply. “

Something to ponder on. There are more ways to screw up a southern snow threat than to sew one up..
 
Brick Tamland said:
People jumping over the ICON, even though it is further south and colder than the previous run. That is a good step.
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Yes. Calm down. The snow map is much further south than the 0z on the ICON:
icon_asnow_seus_61.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
People jumping over the ICON, even though it is further south and colder than the previous run. That is a good step.
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Exactly, the wave was actually a little weaker over the Baja by 96 HR which is what areas outside the heavily favored CAD regions of NC, upstate NC, and far NE GA need to see a lot more of in the coming few days. Still probably about 48 hours away from figuring out if this will cut towards the TN valley, remain suppressed well to the south, or something in between.

icon_z500_vort_us_fh96_trend.gif
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
From a met on another board: “ I would though, not hang my hat on the fact that this CAD high will be there. The 00z GFS, while an outlier, was also completely plausible, with an arctic trough/front creating warm air advection ahead of it in the NE and completely sabotaging the cold air supply. “

Something to ponder on. There are more ways to screw up a southern snow threat than to sew one up..
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That met on the other board went to NC State and graduated a semester before me, and I can attest to the fact that it's not uncommon for him to say something like that which significantly divulges from consensus. I just have a hard time believing there won't be some sort of CAD high in place for this storm, even if that's just somehow in-situ
 
Please keep all banter in banter, one liners, cliff jumping, anything that does not add anything at all to the discussion..... especially during model runs. I'm just gonna delete to keep it crisp. C'mon y'all know during any other time we are extremely loose with the post but during the busy times help us out, thanks.
 
Webberweather53 said:
In the short range where trends are likely realistic and indicative of something physical, the GFS has been progressively weakening this s/w over the open NE Pacific. If this continues to carry forward a few more days that would be good news for the deep south.

View attachment 8094
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Do you suppose any of this is attributable to sampling? I've noticed that sometimes these waves tend to look weak out in the Pacific but actually "trend" stronger once they come onshore and get sampled better. That's just an observation and may only apply in specific instances (which may not be applicable here).
 
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