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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

6z GEFS is colder in the CAD regions and the snow maps are even better than 0z. These crazy maps are the best I've ever seen for my area. It's pretty remarkable the strong signal and relative consistency.
 
Clem282340 said:
Pictures please
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gefs_snow_mean_nc_30.png

Can you see this graphic? If not, I'll need to save it to my computer first. Please let me know.
 
DadOfJax said:
Good luck to the Mid Atlantic....Not happening in the Southeast.
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Is this because you consider NC, Tn, NE Ga, upstate SC the mid Atlantic or you have some reasoning as to why there will be absolutely no frozen precip in the SouthEast?

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I’m in Columbia. Will be driving home from Charlotte Saturday. In a cold rain I guess.
 
deltadog03 said:
So for my GA peeps this actually isn't as far off as it appears. 2m temps from 3PM SAT to 4PM SUN temps are around the mid 30's from ATL and N and near 40ish for Mid GA....here is the bad news though.....850's are like 1-3c from 3pm to like 9pm ish, then spike to around 5-7c for the north and like near 10c for mid ga (mid ga starts around 3-5c). they fall to near 0c by midnight Sunday near NGA and then by 4am or so around mid GA. problem is....no moisture by the time that happens though.

Points being, that the doc has been getting progressively colder, from what I can tell at 2m and 850 on each run. Sunday morning temps are nearly 5-8 degrees colder around here, and a good 4-6 degrees colder up in NGA.

Time will tell, but trends still are not total 0 for wintry across our state. lets see if the doc will continue to cool.
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Wanna repost this in case some didn't see it .
 
Two things. Cut the snow totals in at least half from the EURO, it almost always overestimates the amount of snow (as does the GFS and most modelling). Also don't even bother looking at the NAM right now as it is still on the far end of it's range
 
DadOfJax said:
Good luck to the Mid Atlantic....Not happening in the Southeast.
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metwannabe said:
Is this because you consider NC, Tn, NE Ga, upstate SC the mid Atlantic or you have some reasoning as to why there will be absolutely no frozen precip in the SouthEast?

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It's a magic 8-ball that only has no for an answer; comes from certain folks all the time.

On a weather related note there has been nothing to indicate 100% which way this is going to go; numerous options still on the table.
 
The models are still adjusting the dial back on this s/w over the NE Pacific in the short range, particularly the Fv3 & I wouldn't be shocked if this continues to trend in our favor. It's important for us to have a weaker/flatter wave to contend w/ as it favors more wintry precipitation for a larger section of the board. I really will feel much better when we can get a portion of this wave directly sampled by rawinsondes in the US.

fv3p_z500_vort_namer_fh48_trend.gif
 
Catching up on the runs overnight. Euro and GFS both look great for NC. This is why I was not fretting about the further north runs last night. We see this back and forth a lot this far out, and then comes back to the solution they had earlier. Looks like a solid snow storm for most of NC. Question is how much will it be.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The models are still adjusting the dial back on this s/w over the NE Pacific in the short range, particularly the Fv3 & I wouldn't be shocked if this continues to trend in our favor. It's important for us to have a weaker/flatter wave to contend w/ as it favors more wintry precipitation for a larger section of the board. I really will feel much better when we can get a portion of this wave directly sampled by rawinsondes in the US.

View attachment 8232
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It will be nice to get a good sample of that energy for sure . Good news is as it begins to shear out the energy should accelerate Eastward . What's really interesting is the jet looks very favorable for either slowing down the primary or development of a 2nd system once over the deep South . That's the kind of stuff we don't see often.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The models are still adjusting the dial back on this s/w over the NE Pacific in the short range, particularly the Fv3 & I wouldn't be shocked if this continues to trend in our favor. It's important for us to have a weaker/flatter wave to contend w/ as it favors more wintry precipitation for a larger section of the board. I really will feel much better when we can get a portion of this wave directly sampled by rawinsondes in the US.

View attachment 8232
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When will that be the case? I agree in regards to the sampling. By tomorrow nigh or 0z Thursday I should say
 
GFS & NAM already look worlds apart on their depiction of surface dews associated w/ this CAD event, obviously the NAM is way colder/drier, even though it's in the longer range of the NAM for now this is the stereotypical difference between the two models many in CAD favored regions see time & time again. Still would like to wait til at least Thu before being sold on a deep south, Carolinas, or mid-atlantic centric hit (or more than one of the above) when some of the convective allowing models like the RGEM & NAM to come in range and the wave is at least partially sampled.
 
I would be very careful in saying who is or who isn’t getting what if you live in GA, SC, or NC. The models have yet to get sample data of the actual wave we are looking at. With that being said I see that the models continue to trend colder.


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deltadog03 said:
It will be nice to get a good sample of that energy for sure . Good news is as it begins to shear out the energy should accelerate Eastward . What's really interesting is the jet looks very favorable for either slowing down the primary or development of a 2nd system once over the deep South . That's the kind of stuff we don't see often.
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Exactly, there could be a nice 1-2 punch here plus perhaps a little appetizer tomorrow with the clipper rolling thru, can't really complain.

NCSNOW said:
When will that be the case? I agree in regards to the sampling. By tomorrow nigh or 0z Thursday I should say
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Yeah looks like sometime on Thursday afternoon give or take, sometimes the sampling doesn't change the forecast at all but it leaves open the possibility that it certainly can and I've recalled many cases where it has.
 
Those ensemble preciptation mean products are ridiculous over such a large area. Regardless of what happens with this "threat", this may be a sign of things to come once we head into a more favorable time.
 
Shawn said:
Those ensemble preciptation mean products are ridiculous over such a large area. Regardless of what happens with this "threat", this may be a sign of things to come once we head into a more favorable time.
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Interestingly, I've seen & harped on many cases during overrunning and CAD events and similar setups to this where precipitation rates and totals are actually underrepresented by NWP models especially to the north of the primary low track, which as crazy as it sounds could potentially even wager for more QPF than we're already seeing on some of the ensemble guidance.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Interestingly, I've seen & harped on many cases during overrunning and CAD events and similar setups to this where precipitation rates and totals are actually underrepresented by NWP models especially to the north of the primary low track, which as crazy as it sounds could potentially even wager for more QPF than we're already seeing on some of the ensemble guidance.
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That being said, think some really high elevations might have a shot at 3'+?
 
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