• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

This run is looking like the goods coming again.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
GFS a touch south with the vort over the northern Baja area and heights pressing down a little more in the Eastern US. In theory it should be a better run. We will see.
gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png
 
There are enough changes at 500mb, that even though the HP is 2 mb weaker (so far) things may be slowed down in the North to maybe keep the HP anchored.
 
Looking good through 114. HP is more in line with the LP and the 500mb looks like it will result in a little further south surface depiction if it doesn't phase.
 
492dm in SE canada. This should in theory bring a bigger deal at least to NC this run vs previous couple runs.
 
Also watch the dew points before storm arrival .new GFS coming in lower over the CAD areas vs previous runs as well
 
Rain Cold said:
Do you suppose any of this is attributable to sampling? I've noticed that sometimes these waves tend to look weak out in the Pacific but actually "trend" stronger once they come onshore and get sampled better. That's just an observation and may only apply in specific instances (which may not be applicable here).
Click to expand...

Potentially but that seems like a very reasonable assumption. Definitely wouldn't hurt to have actual RAOBs instead of mostly remote sensing estimates from satellites to get a better sense of this s/w's true intensity but as time has gone on & better/more data is ingested into the model, it seems at least probable that the GFS is overdone on its strength which argues for a faster/flatter s/w in the long run all else considered equal. I wish NOAA would conduct an upper air mission over the NE Pacific, we could seriously use the data.
 
metwannabe said:
NC folks prepare for glory with this run.... and I'd say a good trend for others, unless it fails us in the next frame or two
Click to expand...

Im beginning to worry about the High being able to catch up at this very moment.. but eh.. it could be a worse run regardless. Nice so far.
 
This looks to be another long duration even for someone, lead low progressing nicely but another one dropping down. All with a nice 50/50.

Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 11.09.16 AM.png
 
Should still be good for a good chunk of NC. This wasn't a bad run.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top