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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Something of note from the 00z Euro, the 850 low was significantly south in a position favorable for snow in a good chunk of NC.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_7.png


The 00z run yesterday had it significantly further north.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_8.png


And the 6z GFS has it even further north up into Tennessee before transferring it to the coast.
gfs_z850_vort_seus_24.png


Personally I don't think the GFS is handling the thermal profile very well and pushing the 850 low too far to the north. IF the low tracks further south like the Euro shows then I would expect things to actually trend a bit colder as we get closer to go time, assuming the system doesn't trend north. The NAM and RGEM will be incredibly helpful in determining transition zones and I don't think globals are anywhere close to what we will actually see yet, especially with such varying 850 tracks.
 
It sure does seem like South Carolina mainly north of I-85 look to see some form of wintry mix to rain then ending as snow. Not so sure it would add up much as far as accumulation goes. Hopefully it continues to trend colder
 
I have never seen anything like this 6z GEFS run for my area in the 15 years I've been looking at weather models. I know there's a lot to sort out yet with track, surface temps, column profiles, etc..., but this potential is absolutely amazing. The closest I remember is the January 2017 storm with had a ton of precip. I ended up getting 5-6 inches of snow/sleet/slop on that one. As long as I avoid a Dec 4-5 2002 repeat with an ice storm of the century, I'm good. Take a look at this.
KGSO_2018120406_gefs_snow_384.png
 
Does anyone have the GEFS individual members? I'd be curious to see what they look like if anyone does... thanks!
 
packfan98 said:
I have never seen anything like this 6z GEFS run for my area in the 15 years I've been looking at weather models. I know there's a lot to sort out yet with track, surface temps, column profiles, etc..., but this potential is absolutely amazing. The closest I remember is the January 2017 storm with had a ton of precip. I ended up getting 5-6 inches of snow/sleet/slop on that one. As long as I avoid a Dec 4-5 2002 repeat with an ice storm of the century, I'm good. Take a look at this.
KGSO_2018120406_gefs_snow_384.png
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Yeah even if you turn this into absolute slop and nothing but sleet, you're still looking at a very solid storm in your neck of the woods.
 
packfan98 said:
I have never seen anything like this 6z GEFS run for my area in the 15 years I've been looking at weather models. I know there's a lot to sort out yet with track, surface temps, column profiles, etc..., but this potential is absolutely amazing. The closest I remember is the January 2017 storm with had a ton of precip. I ended up getting 5-6 inches of snow/sleet/slop on that one. As long as I avoid a Dec 4-5 2002 repeat with an ice storm of the century, I'm good. Take a look at this.
KGSO_2018120406_gefs_snow_384.png
Click to expand...

Id be saving them , regardless of what actually happens that’s amazing


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Someone posted this map on the "other" forum. If you live in my neck of the woods, I have a feeling that this is probably what we will see with this system. I hope I am wrong though.

17-01-08 Winter Storm.png
 
BHS1975 said:
I’m thinking the cad was weaker with that one.


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The cold high was considerably weaker and I don't think the two events are a terribly valid comparison in this regard, in fact for a good duration of the Jan 2017 storm there was a low over the Lakes lol.

namussfc2017010621.gif

The CAD forecasted in this event puts Jan 2017 to shame even after our high weakens some later in the event.
ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_6 (1).png
 
mrdaddyman said:
Someone posted this map on the "other" forum. If you live in my neck of the woods, I have a feeling that this is probably what we will see with this system. I hope I am wrong though.

View attachment 8235
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Yeah man that usual line that runs NE to SW from Roanoke Rapids thru Raleigh is going to be in play.... several of us, you that RC guy, snowlover, Shane going to be hurting our eyes staring at CC radar hoping it's sliding E/SE Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
The cold high was considerably weaker and I don't think the two events are a terribly valid comparison in this regard, in fact for a good duration of the Jan 2017 storm there was a low over the Lakes lol.

View attachment 8237

The CAD forecasted in this event puts Jan 2017 to shame even after our high weakens some later in the event.
View attachment 8238
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Dang good point, I haven't even noticed the fact that our persky GL low isn't there for our upcoming event...... that's a victory in and of itself Lol
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah man that usual line that runs NE to SW from Roanoke Rapids thru Raleigh is going to be in play.... several of us, you that RC guy, snowlover, Shane going to be hurting our eyes staring at CC radar hoping it's sliding E/SE Lol
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Me2


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Webberweather53 said:
The cold high was considerably weaker and I don't think the two events are a terribly valid comparison in this regard, in fact for a good duration of the Jan 2017 storm there was a low over the Lakes lol.

View attachment 8237

The CAD forecasted in this event puts Jan 2017 to shame even after our high weakens some later in the event.
View attachment 8238
Click to expand...

I still think January 1988 is one of the best analogs we have for this event, the high placement, intensity, and juxtaposition & track of the Gulf surface low are all ridiculously similar except out gulf low will be a bit stronger this time and it's gonna be a lot warmer in this storm w/ arguably a lot less snow from RDU-CLT & points SEward

ECMWF ERA-20C MSLPa Jan 7 1988 US.jpg
gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_18.png
 
I’m cautiously optimistic with this setup here because I sit in prime upstate CAD territory. We’re not waiting on cold to spill over the mountains. I’m ok with where my area sits at the moment. Even just south of 85
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah man that usual line that runs NE to SW from Roanoke Rapids thru Raleigh is going to be in play.... several of us, you that RC guy, snowlover, Shane going to be hurting our eyes staring at CC radar hoping it's sliding E/SE Lol
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Yeah I'll likely be on the outside looking in as a lot will unless we can get the 850 low to stay south like the Euro. Still an interesting storm to track and there is a lot of potential for this to trend colder rather than warmer as we get closer to the event... that 850 low is our key. It needs to track through Central AL to central GA or even south of there for the rest of NC to have a shot.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I still think January 1988 is one of the best analogs we have for this event, the high placement, intensity, and juxtaposition & track of the Gulf surface low are all ridiculously similar except out gulf low will be a bit stronger this time and it's gonna be a lot warmer in this storm w/ arguably a lot less snow from RDU-CLT & points SEward

View attachment 8239
View attachment 8240
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Track is similar but the strength of the cold must be way different. The 88 storm was super cold in the mid south/TN Valley. This one looks like mostly rain for us. In Nashville most of the snow fell at around 20 degrees in Jan 88.
 
Coach B said:
Track is similar but the strength of the cold must be way different. The 88 storm was super cold in the mid south/TN Valley. This one looks like mostly rain for us.
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Yeah you can easily have a winter storm analog but the outcome sensibly is much different, I expect this event to be a lot warmer overall, no way we're getting into the 10s during this storm here lol.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah I'll likely be on the outside looking in as a lot will unless we can get the 850 low to stay south like the Euro. Still an interesting storm to track and there is a lot of potential for this to trend colder rather than warmer as we get closer to the event... that 850 low is our key. It needs to track through Central AL to central GA or even south of there for the rest of NC to have a shot.
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I've already accepted all rain imby

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SD said:
I've already accepted all rain imby

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We'll get some sleet pellets at the onset probably. And if you squint real hard, you might see one or two of those fast falling wet snowflakes that make you wonder whether it was really a snowflake at all or just a really big raindrop. The writing's on the wall with this one. There's still a needle to be threaded, but it's getting smaller and smaller with the eroding eastern edge of each new clown map.
 
Rain Cold said:
We'll get some sleet pellets at the onset probably. And if you squint real hard, you might see one or two of those fast falling wet snowflakes that make you wonder whether it was really a snowflake at all or just a really big raindrop. The writing's on the wall with this one. There's still a needle to be threaded, but it's getting smaller and smaller with the eroding eastern edge of each new clown map.
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Thinking a 33 degree rain event for RDU like last December?
 
Shawn said:
Last 5 runs of the GFS including current for the same time-frame:
View attachment 8222

Going to take a huge change to keep the WAA away from the majority of SC. Like hundreds of miles or something South.
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It’s cool , because the high pressure has trended stronger every run. 1039 on latest run!
 
CyclonicFury said:
Thinking a 33 degree rain event for RDU like last December?
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We might do a bit better than that this year. Maybe 32.5 and rain? There should be at least a period of mix here, assuming the high is there and CAD develops as modeled. It's always underrepresented at this lead. However, with this thing wanting to stall just off of the NC coast, just onshore, or move northward along the coast, that is not a favorable track for RDU snow events most of the time, especially in marginally cold air situations. We need it to keep moving east and not take on a substantial north component.
 
Webberweather53 said:
6z EPS is virtually the same as we've seen most runs of late (minus yesterday's north runs).
Pretty ideal low track for the NC piedmont from the Gulf coast to just offshore Wilmington & Hatteras, just has to be cold enough...
View attachment 8241

View attachment 8242
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Just looking at those 2 maps I would argue for a definite colder trend with the temps especially in the beginning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We really won't have an idea on this yet for a while to come but I'd wager this could be quite a sleet fest for someone in the broad transition zone which climatologically tends to be Charlotte-RDU corridor
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The large-scale setup & QPF look impressive enough in general to even go insofar as to say that if the main precipitation type were to be sleet for the duration of the event (as we've seen many times before) there actually could be enough of it to trigger winter storm warnings based on IP alone and little-no snow accum, but I'd still like to get a few days closer to the event before delving into specifics, this is just where my head is on that atm.
 
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