Got to have a strong high built in early enough as well.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Round Oak Weather
Member
If the trends don’t look better tmrw or Wednesday then I’ll be worried. My gut tells me GA shouldn’t be worried
Yeah it's a fine line. Need a strong hp and low dewpoints to keep that cold air locked in.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I don't see anything slipping away on the models yet for NC. If anything, they have gotten better the last two days.
Storm5
Member
weatherfide
Member
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Georgia shouldn't be worried if they are expecting a cold rain in most places. Expecting freezing or frozen at this point is not realistic unless you are in the NE section (north of Gainesville). We may have some flooding issues to address. We've had close to 3" of rain widespread. This one looks like another shot at 2" or so.
snowlover91
Member
Just to give people an idea on how much things can change over the course of 2-3 days, the clipper moving through Wednesday is a good example.
Here's the GFS 138 hours out for the clipper system, notice the 528dm line is up in VA with a nice low off the coast.
Now 60 hours out here is the setup. Notice the 528dm line actually pushed into northern NC and overall things are a bit colder and there is no strong LP off the coast at this same time. This goes to show how much things can change in just a few days and why no one should be accepting one model solution or set of runs this far out.
Here's the GFS 138 hours out for the clipper system, notice the 528dm line is up in VA with a nice low off the coast.
Now 60 hours out here is the setup. Notice the 528dm line actually pushed into northern NC and overall things are a bit colder and there is no strong LP off the coast at this same time. This goes to show how much things can change in just a few days and why no one should be accepting one model solution or set of runs this far out.
Round Oak Weather
Member
I still don’t know about that the FV3 pushed frozen precip nicely into GA. The Euro 12z and last nights gefs theirs still to many cards in the table
cyclogent
Member
Our wave is verifying weaker than progged in the Pacific . Pretty good placement/position on the NAM but it's been constantly playing catch up with regards to strength.
snowlover91
Member
I know it's the NAM and pretty far out but it is worth noting that it has the energy entering California a bit weaker than the GFS and slightly further south as well. A weaker and further south system would be beneficial for snow across the SE. I always like to see them enter around the upper Baja and that's what the NAM is showing.
packfan98
Moderator
An interesting tidbit from one of the most respected posters on AW, donsutherland1:
The best match for the forecast 500 mb height anomalies is the December 2-3, 1896 snowstorm.
The following snowstorms dumped 6" or more snow at Raleigh prior to December 20:
December 2-3, 1896: 7.5"
December 12-13, 1917: 7.1"
December 17, 1930: 7.0"
December 11, 1958: 9.1"
Snowfall for select cities from those storms was as follows:
December 2-3, 1896:
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 10.5"
New York City: None
Philadelphia: None
Washington, DC: None
The best match for the forecast 500 mb height anomalies is the December 2-3, 1896 snowstorm.
The following snowstorms dumped 6" or more snow at Raleigh prior to December 20:
December 2-3, 1896: 7.5"
December 12-13, 1917: 7.1"
December 17, 1930: 7.0"
December 11, 1958: 9.1"
Snowfall for select cities from those storms was as follows:
December 2-3, 1896:
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 10.5"
New York City: None
Philadelphia: None
Washington, DC: None
It's a good look coming on-shore, but it needs to kick out in a timely matter as well
packfan98
Moderator
Let's keep the venting, banter, and cliff diving in the other thread please.
Yeah, at this time, there aren't really any trends. There are oscillations. There are several key features that have the potential to interact in various ways. We've seen some favorable interactions (depending on where you are), and we've seen some unfavorable scenarios (also depending on where you are). Observe output over the next 3 days to determine legitimate trends. We'll be getting into the window where data is better sampled, model skill goes up, and trends will show themselves more reliably.
My guess, based on time of year, availability of cold air, and complexity of the setup is that the best chance for snow will be over the mountains and foothills into western VA and down into NW SC. I favor more of a mixy, icy scenario into the upstate of SC through the Triad of NC and potentially into central VA. The Triangle and down into north-central SC are in the game for some snow/mix before changing to rain cold. That is my favored scenario, but of course it is not set in stone.
We will need to see models lock into a strong high building in ahead of or in tandem with the storm (and not hauling arse OTS), the storm not getting too amped (we don't want early Miller B-ing or Apps Rubbering), and the storm not moving up the coast (at least not along the immediate coastline), if we want the more wintry scenarios farther south and east to pan out. This will be the harder road, but it is doable. Pay attention to how the models and ensembles trend over the next 3 days -- not 2 runs in a row, but over the longer period.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Our wave is verifying weaker than progged in the Pacific . Pretty good placement/position on the NAM but it's been constantly playing catch up with regards to strength.
That's certainly good news in the long run if you're hoping for a weaker/flatter wave to traverse across the southern tier of the country, again worth re-iterating that the strength of the s/w and its forward movement are intrinsically linked, a less meridional extensive, and weaker wave will propagate more quickly towards the east
I don't think I'd say it's slipping away just yet, it is concerning to be in best possible position 5-6 days out and Grits comments don't help.... he knows his stuff and he even states it could change but right now some of the trends are in the wrong direction. Not jumping ship, not complaining just toss out the possibility
His write up? Or the models overnight? His words aren't doom and gloom necessarily but they do cause pause...
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snowlover91
Member
Ultimately what we want here in the SE is a bit of a weaker wave coming onshore that stays suppressed and keeps the 850 low south. We also want the confluence over the NE US to hold our HP in place. I wouldn't start taking model solutions, whether rain or wintry, seriously until 12z Wednesday.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, if you go back a few days, the GFS and FV3 have shown the big storm before that they are showing now for NC. So, it really isn't just the last two days. I think the Euro even showed it once or twice a few days back, too.
