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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Does anybody know where the energy to this storm is currently
 
At this range I don't think it's a good idea to lock on to a specific model solution/output for a few reasons. First of all, in these systems it's been my experience over the years that the northern stream will typically have surprises in it not well modeled that won't be picked up until 48-72 hours out at best. The northern stream is a critical part of how far south/north our low tracks and I doubt models are modeling this correctly right now. Second, cutoff lows tend to be a little stronger consistently than modeled. It's not clear how that will effect track yet but usually it leads to more of an amped solution. Last but not least, thermal profiles in this will depend significantly on the HP strength/position and the 850 low. If the 850 low goes to our south then I think the models will actually adjust colder as we draw closer. There won't be strong WAA and the HP, if in a prime position, can help keep things cold enough for a widespread snow.

The players are on the field right now but we need perfect timing/placement for a widespread event. Without that the best anyone in the SE will see is some snow/ice in the CAD regions and cold rain everywhere else. Give this another 2-3 days because there will be more changes ahead.
 
whatalife said:
Good news! JB says this system is going north. He says it’s doubtful that this system will be a southeast storm. So glad he is always right. ‍‍


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I kind of get why JB said that, as there are some members that show the mid-atlantic getting in on the action, but to say he's doubtful this is a southeast storm is premature at this point, so I guess we scratch this off as him catering to his MA customer base.
 
whatalife said:
Good news! JB says this system is going north. He says it’s doubtful that this system will be a southeast storm. So glad he is always right. ‍‍


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Probably accurate....most people consider NC the furthest extent of the Mid Atlantic. At this point, there are no really good indicators this effects the Southeast (AL, MS, GA, TN, etc)
 
Basically looking at these models in my GA for area West/North of ATL your hoping for... 1. Colder temps modeled in next day or so at start, 2. Stronger CAD pushing all the way into portions or area, 3. A slug of energy being whipped around on tail end for a few passing snow showers

PS... Most likely not our storm but we will keep look-out
 
DadOfJax said:
Probably accurate....most people consider NC the furthest extent of the Mid Atlantic. At this point, there are no really good indicators this effects the Southeast (AL, MS, GA, TN, etc)
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From a meteorological standpoint, that is likely accurate. The NC mountains seem to do well on mid-atlantic storms. December 09, Feb 2010, Jan 2016 come to mind.
 
Nomanslandva said:
When I go here:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/virginia/temperature-f/20181203-1400z.html
I can see the Master, Control, and individual members for the EURO. I do not think this was always there but who knows.

Edit when I go here:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

I do not see the master and members but only saw them after I zoomed in somewhere.
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They are there you have to use the drop down arrow under members, problem is you have to literally click each one individually to see it but it's there

DadOfJax said:
Probably accurate....most people consider NC the furthest extent of the Mid Atlantic. At this point, there are no really good indicators this effects the Southeast (AL, MS, GA, TN, etc)
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I should ban you for throwing NC in the Mid-Atlantic......
 
I see people talking about their chances slipping away but still 4-6 days out and they still haven’t put the real info into the models and changes can still take place. With that said everyone back away from the cliff and just give it a few days.
 
Yeah, if we see good model trends tommorow than that's good since the southern wave should be in Cali
 
metwannabe said:
They are there you have to use the drop down arrow under members, problem is you have to literally click each one individually to see it but it's there



I should ban you for throwing NC in the Mid-Atlantic......
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Down arrow key toggles through them pretty easily. And most don't even think southern VA is MA for weather so agree NC is definitely not.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
:p Lol! I never said culturally, socially or anything else for that matter. Just the mountains from a climate standpoint. We seem to do well.
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NC is in the middle so they can score both ways, WE in the “ Deep South” can’t so we are jealous. Still a few days to go, no cliff diving yet. I hold my judgment until Friday.
 
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