The upper level low is the biggest improvement this run.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
That look wintry for Midlands of SC too.. Tidbits model show mix along the border0z GFS simulated radar, indeed a long duration of frozen precip for NE GA and points northeast.
Snowflowxxl
Member
All hail Brick
Avalanche
Member
Sleet fest for Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, snow just to our west. We are so close!!!!
Kylo
Member
Would be nice for another model outside of this country that would show something like this.
Backside snows dont work out very well for Atlanta usually.
If it a chance...lmbo
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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This run will happen , Roxboro gets 38”, so book it!
Avalanche
Member
Roxboro is always a big winner here in NC
This is really not backside snow, if upper level low form and maybe secondary low.
Avalanche
Member
Triangle gets sleetfest and Triad gets snow. Shoulda never left Greensboro.
Shows pink more South on this.
o0z GFS simulated radar, indeed a long duration of frozen precip for NE GA, eastern GA, and points east and northeast.
Jessy89
Member
Would the pink be sleet or freezing rain
I've seen that story too many times. It would be nice too look at but likely not amount to much. The setup just isn't looking good for our area.
Snownut
Member
Pink is freezing rain or mix and the purple is sleet if I'm not mistaken.
Avalanche
Member
If you take radar colored map verbatim, most of what falls in the Triangle is sleet, the snow is more west towards Randolph/Alamance/Guilford. I'm caught in between in Chatham.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Even back-end snow showers would be a win for Atlanta in early December to be fair
I will say it does bother me a bit that the doc doesn't support this that much. It will change as well, but something to keep an eye on .to me this is almost a 2 system in 1 especially if that ULL slows a bit and pops a 2nd low
Most of the pink on that simulated radar I posted is freezing rain. Some area's in the pink will see a transition from freezing rain to snow/sleet as the 850mb fall to freezing or slightly below. It's a simulation, so it won't be exact when it comes to reality.
Hard to have a December thaw with 2 feet of
Snowpack 100 miles to my north. Thanks NC. You guys saved winter
Snowpack 100 miles to my north. Thanks NC. You guys saved winter
Jessy89
Member
Thanks that helps
Avalanche
Member
LOL!!!!! I'll buy you a cold one for that laugh buddy!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm sorry but the 0z GFS MSLPa pressure pattern & distribution in the US is virtually identical to the infamous January 1988 storm, only nitpick is a slightly stronger low over the Gulf coast.
I don’t see confluence in 88’. What prevented it from exploding?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The bottom image uses ECMWF-20th Century Reanalysis (ERA-20C)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh there's a ton of confluence it's just slightly off screen over the Canadian Maritimes
Avalanche
Member
1988 gave me a foot of snow here in Chatham. I could only wish for a repeat of that!!!
I can see the deep blue at the corner of my screen
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This one?
Yep lol. Even a repeat of that storm could be a bust for local sensible impacts but I don't how much closer you can get verbatim, 1040 highs are impressive even for ancient winter storms of years past around here.
0z ukmet 24 hour maps has a 1013 SLP near NOLA with 1035mb high to NE at 120 and a 1007 SLP of coast near NC/SC border. ***Bottom image is the same time stamp 0z Sunday from the 12z run.
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I don't know of any NC folks would complain about that, even cedar island on the coast picked up 1.7"
If the GFS is to be correct, the area's that may get the prolonged frozen precip may receive about a total of 48 hours of frozen precip. Some places are going to get a hammering from this system.
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Avalanche
Member
So, more fun to travel to Raleigh/Durham for sleet storm or Greensboro/High Point for snowstorm....
I really curious what the gefs will show
SimeonNC
Member
If you look at the pivotal maps for ZR, CLT apparently gets almost an inch of ice along with that foot of snow.
I wonder what the difference in temps is between the Jan 88 and this storm? Did Jan 88 storm have more cold air to work with ?
Avalanche
Member
The general placement of the Low has seemed more consistent than the HP up north. That high has danced every run, and the strength has been subject to a lot of the spectrum. Wonder what we wind up with??
Avalanche
Member
Living in Chatham Co at the time, is was basically a nowcast event. Most thought the warm air would move northward with the precipitation, but the rain/snow line stayed stationary and even drifted south. Never had any mixing issues with it at all.