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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The EPS continues to change wrt storm location and HP every run. I’d wait for the model to hone in on general LP cluster agreement and HP location before I’d toss for any area.

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deltadog03 said:
I don't like how things have slowed down just a bit .it's not huge time difference, but it could be enough . obviously I don't expect anything here, but I do think parts of GA is in play .Plenty of time, but I didn't like how the doc and EPS was a little warmer .now we will see the thermals change a lot between now and then as well. I DO like how the players are on the field and the sfc low is trending south each run, but that high needs to be anchored and a bit stronger. Need a bit more cold .
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THIS^^^^


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Kylo said:
Agree, all modeling looked good overnight. It’s going to be difficult to keep this completely suppressed. Just hope it doesn’t start tracking over us like the UK shows.
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And I need to look at it a little closer but oddly enough while it seems to have shifted slightly North it also seems to have trended colder for mby a little further East.

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This looking more and more like a NC special. Hopefully I can get some token flakes and or IP. Not going to be greedy, scored big time last December IMBY. Not seeing it for us GA/AL and most SC folks. Hope I'm wrong.
 
6z GFS was actually not too much different from the 6z V3-GFS here in N. GA (including ATL metro). It's Rain changeover to wintry mix, back to rain, back to a wintry mix (with snow in far NE GA), then snow extending SWard to Atlanta metro and even eastern AL, just to the east of Birmingham. Even Macon is on the borderline of the snow/mix around hr 180. (18z MON)

https://www.weathernerds.org/models...=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On
 
deltadog03 said:
I don't like how things have slowed down just a bit .it's not huge time difference, but it could be enough . obviously I don't expect anything here, but I do think parts of GA is in play .Plenty of time, but I didn't like how the doc and EPS was a little warmer .now we will see the thermals change a lot between now and then as well. I DO like how the players are on the field and the sfc low is trending south each run, but that high needs to be anchored and a bit stronger. Need a bit more cold .
Click to expand...
I think the models will trend colder starting today and I think ATL region is still in play.
 
If we can't pull out a good event here in northeast AL, hopefully this turns to an App cutter and we can get some up in Ohio....I will find a reason for a business trip up there!
 
Us upstate folks are still looking good with this. Anyone in the favored CAD areas are in the best place for this storm. Its gonna depend on how strong that high is. The more cold it can push in here the less mixing we will see.

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I'm sorry guys, but something is definitely wrong with the various FV3 map sources. Bad wrong.

I'd have to download the grib files and plot/look at the parameters myself, but something is not right when it comes to Wintry weather, especially the way it categorizes it on the type/accumulation maps.
 
Shawn said:
I'm sorry guys, but something is definitely wrong with the various FV3 map sources. Bad wrong.

I'd have to download the grib files and plot/look at the parameters myself, but something is not right when it comes to Wintry weather, especially the way it categorizes it on the type/accumulation maps.
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It would be nice if Pivotal ran the 6z and 18z of the FV3. Looks like only 12z an 0z. Their snow/ice maps are much more realistic.
 
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