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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The GFS seems too warm at the surface in ATL-AHN corridor when considering 850s of past storms. Typically 850s colder than +5C along with a strong wedge and widespread precip. has given them mainly ZR. Hmmm....warm bias problem here? I'm not buying temps nearly as warm as the GFS has it there.
 
Can this please happen, this is during the peak of the event for Rowan county nc
 

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The CMC is warm because it has more phasing sending the 850 low west of the apps with a transfer to NE NC hence all the warm air. This, while not a high possibility right now, is something that could definitely happen if our 5H wave slows down and/or phasing happens sooner.
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snowlover91 said:
Verbatim that would probably be a VERY heavy wet snow since the upper level temps are at or below 0C and only the last few hundred feet are above freezing. Realistically you'd probably be 33-34 at the surface IMO.
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Warm nose for RDU definitely there on the 12z GFS...sleet (aka my avatar)
 

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The GFS definitely seems off on the temps given the position of the high. Hoping the ZR scenario is not a bad one for CAD areas.
 
GFS/UK are fairly close with keeping the NS energy separated from southern low. It's up in the Dakota's. The Euro/CMC are phasing quicker. Still 4 days out, we might not know for atleast a couple of more days, wouldn't be surprised to see the 18z GFS flip back to a warmer solution.

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My gfs sounding at 18z sunday. Riding that fence between ripping snowstorm and miserable cold rain
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ATLwxfan said:
Good run for NC. Should just about do it for most of GA/AL with the ULL not panning out. Still it’s a good thing that we had to watch this up to a few days out. Plenty of winter for other opportunities.


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I agree. Unless some better trends for the ULL we march on to the next one.
 
Jon said:
Warm nose for RDU definitely there on the 12z GFS...sleet (aka my avatar)
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Yeah it changes to sleet at that point... but the sounding metwannabe posted would probably be a heavy wet snow sounding but very borderline. Going to be a tough dividing line that will bounce around a lot.
 
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