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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

SoutheastRidge said:
I would think that unless rates are extremely heavy, you are going to have to get well below freezing to have major sleet accumulations.
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The only visible winter precip type would be zr down here due to marginal temps. If we get sleet,
GaWx said:
Major ZR/IP/SN >2" ATL (since 1940 for ZR; since 1952 for SN and IP): 41 total


Resultant winds during precip.:


Avg Direction # storms

E 23 (most of these mainly ZR or IP)

NE 8 (all mainly SN)

N 3 (all mainly SN)

NW 6 (all mainly SN

W 1 (mainly SN)

- All 18 ZR's and 3 IP's had E winds. That is consistent with E winds generally being associated with efficient wintry precip. producers at ATL.
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Hey Larry, good to see you posting. What do you think about this particular situation in the Cumming area? Any ideas or too borderline to say?
 
Hey Larry, good to see you posting. What do you think about this particular situation in the Cumming area? Any ideas or too borderline to say?[/QUOTE]
 
The precip seems to be zipping along pretty nicely in AL and GA but in NC it seems like the precip is making little progress.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Latest HRRR seems to bring the sleet in here about 5 or 6 hours from now, so close to midnight. The rates then could really pile the sleet up or it could mostly melt in due to the rain. That is unless we go below freezing and get a block of ice in the ground.
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Are you in Forsyth County or Dawson County ?
 
NWCummingWx said:
The only visible winter precip type would be zr down here due to marginal temps. If we get sleet,

Hey Larry, good to see you posting. What do you think about this particular situation in the Cumming area? Any ideas or too borderline to say?
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Too borderline to say with high confidence but I think there will be some IP/ZR at Cumming. On the one hand, 850's of +1 to +2 C with a good wedge and many hours of precip strongly suggest sleet and then ZR when they rise to +3 to +5 per many decades of history. OTOH, where are the teen dewpoints that are normally seen upstream at least as far south as NC and often down into N GA prior to precip starting? They were way up in VA. And the GFS continues to insist it will stay 34-35 though I think that is due to warm bias.

I did find it interesting that all major ZR and IP in Atlanta had E not NE winds. NO exceptions! NE meant snow while IP or ZR always had E though sometimes E meant snow.
 
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I still think much of ATL proper, especially NE ATL, will have a decent shot at flirting with 32 with precip falling. The GFS still has Doraville getting down only to 37. That doesn't look right to me with 850's in the +2 to +4 range most of the storm along with good wedging. Something does not compute there assuming history is a good guide!

Wedging normally means colder at surface than at 850. With 850s near 37 F, the surface should be quite a bit colder.
 
Larry maybe you can chime in here but where the models show the highest zr amounts seems off to me. In general Rabun county is not the highlight for an ice storm. Most ice storms that materialize go from hall county over to hart and then up into the upstate. Doesn’t make since that higher elevations would have the most zr
 
WeatherLC said:
Larry maybe you can chime in here but where the models show the highest zr amounts seems off to me. In general Rabun county is not the highlight for an ice storm. Most ice storms that materialize go from hall county over to hart and then up into the upstate. Doesn’t make since that higher elevations would have the most zr
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Agreed. I think mainly snow there.
 
GaWx said:
Major ZR/IP/SN >2" ATL (since 1940 for ZR; since 1952 for SN and IP): 41 total


Resultant winds during precip.:


Avg Direction # storms

E 23 (most of these mainly ZR or IP)

NE 8 (all mainly SN)

N 3 (all mainly SN)

NW 6 (all mainly SN

W 1 (mainly SN)

- All 18 ZR's and 3 IP's had E winds. That is consistent with E winds generally being associated with efficient wintry precip. producers at ATL.
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It's a good cad down here, Larry, the gusts are whipping the tree tops around like crazy. Only dropped a degree though, with one this good I'm hoping for a good bit lower :)
 
Ok I've had a long day y'all, too tired, lazy to read back through all these post. Where are with regard to slp track, hp strength, etc compared to modeling.

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metwannabe said:
Ok I've had a long day y'all, too tired, lazy to read back through all these post. Where are with regard to slp track, hp strength, etc compared to modeling.

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Essentially it’s as bad as you think. BUT we have the hrrrrap which has lots of snow at the end of its run. Last run was crap. This run was better. Next run, well, you know how it goes. BUT, the 0zs are going to save our bacon at the last minute!
 
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Flirting with 2" so far in Maggie Valley at 3150' in elevation.
 
It looks like the snow line etc coming down into N GA is actually being pushed back up on radar. Lol Temps in Lavonia and Toccoa came up a degree. Wth???
 
GaWx said:
I still think much of ATL proper, especially NE ATL, will have a decent shot at flirting with 32 with precip falling. The GFS still has Doraville getting down only to 37. That doesn't look right to me with 850's in the +2 to +4 range most of the storm along with good wedging. Something does not compute there assuming history is a good guide!

Wedging normally means colder at surface than at 850. With 850s near 37 F, the surface should be quite a bit colder.
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One of the local mets here just did a FB live and his forecast model showed overnight the 32F line reaches all the way to atlanta and west toward the AL line down I-20 mainly... said light glazing of ice may be possible and mixing of snow by morning. Very interesting. That same forecast model he had also had the early arrival of precip yesterday morning. Interesting to watch tonight.
 
I don’t see the rain snow line making it below 85 here. It’s struggling to flip even up here at I85. It’s stymied right now. I bet we are still rain when I wake up in the a.m.

This is not based on model analysis. This is based on life experience in this part of the world
 
Avalanche said:
Ive been away the past several hours. What's the latest scoop on the Triad/Triangle areas?
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Likely progressing as expected. Snow not likely to begin until between 1 and 3 am, may begin as rain. Mixing with sleet possible. Still thinking 1-3" or so of snow/sleet mix but most mets are much more aggressive.
 
MBell said:
One of the local mets here just did a FB live and his forecast model showed overnight the 32F line reaches all the way to atlanta and west toward the AL line down I-20 mainly... said light glazing of ice may be possible and mixing of snow by morning. Very interesting. That same forecast model he had also had the early arrival of precip yesterday morning. Interesting to watch tonight.
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Which met ?
 
metwannabe said:
Ok I've had a long day y'all, too tired, lazy to read back through all these post. Where are with regard to slp track, hp strength, etc compared to modeling.

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I don't think things are much different from this morning

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CyclonicFury said:
Likely progressing as expected. Snow not likely to begin until between 1 and 3 am, may begin as rain. Mixing with sleet possible. Still thinking 1-3" or so of snow/sleet mix but most mets are much more aggressive.
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One thing I noticed on my home page NBC, they took out the mention of snow and just said rain for tonight and tomorrow, so fear set in. LOL
 
34° DP 33 with a rain/ snow mix it's trying to changeover here in Northern upstate

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