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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Fountainguy97 said:
doesn't the direction matter? I don't see any winds on soundings that look like they would be driving warmth into our area. no winds out of the south that I can find.
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The WPC discussion yesterday mentioned that the winds would be out of the east and the warming aloft would not be as strong as some of our prior storms.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The HRRR can be pretty bad beyond 10-12 hours, I'm gonna wait until later this evening before taking it too seriously, one only has to look upstream w/ how it did in Oklahoma (being the last of the models to cling onto a significant winter storm in OKC before finally caving) to see some red flags.
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Yes, the hrrr is horrible at those ranges. I’m all for it showing snow, but I don’t expect it is right.
 
It looks like the NWS for Middle Tennessee and especially north Middle Tennessee think we could see more snow then initially forecasted. They were calling for a dusting to an inch north of Nashville but I’m now seeing up to 2 inches possibly.

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NWCummingWx said:
I don't see anybody reporting from Forsyth Co, GA, which looks to be a possible demarcation zone between little to no zr and possibly a good bit. Here 5 miles NW of Cumming it's currently a rainy mess at 38.4. Winds gusting to near 20mph from the NE. Bring on the wedge!
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I was in dawson county earlier and it was all rain just as it is here now. This was an hour ago.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yes, the hrrr is horrible at those ranges. I’m all for it showing snow, but I don’t expect it is right.
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yeah. I’m getting more and more confident in 1” of sleet and a glaze on trees by tomorrow night for me and Mack
 
ForsythSnow said:
At least for now. Later in the event there could be if there is some here as well. Could definitely as the cold is coming down slowly.
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Sorry, yeah that's what I meant. For now, till the wedge starts to do its dirty work and hopefully brings us to AOB freezing.
 
Jimmy, why do we always fall for this crap! Cold rain special coming, it’s a mind numbing 39.4 degrees now! Just screams record setting snow and sleet storm! :(
 
My freezing line prediction is somewhere from Cherokee (perhaps very near or east of Canton) down to Alpharetta to Norcross to possibly as far south as Snellville and on eastward from there. That is usually the "wedge zone" that does best. Anyone else have their own prediction or does mine sound solid?
 
RAH has me right on the 4 to 8 line.

Only a slight change in forecast snow amounts with the heavy wet snowfall axis of 8 to 12 inches expected to along and north of I-85, with the predominate p-type expected to fall as mainly, with diabatic and strong dynamic lift/cooling supporting a deep near
freezing isothermal layer. Lift and saturation will begin to wane 21 to 00z, with p-type changing over to a light freezing rain/drizzle
overnight. Ice amounts are expected to be less than a 0.10".

Just south of this heavy snow area and west of US 1, snow amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with the bulk of the snow occurring
through mid to late morning. Then as the warm air aloft spreads into the area from the southeast, p-type is expected to change-over to freezing rain, with a 0.10 to 0.25" of freezing rain/ice possible through the afternoon.
If the change-over to freezing rain occurs quicker than forecast, snow amounts will be less, but ice amounts could easily exceed a
0.25" of an ice. Ice/freezing rain amounts combined with wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will cause widespread damage from downed trees and power-lines.

Finally, east of US-1 and south of I-85, warm nose spreading into the area during the mid to late morning will result in a sharp NW to
SE reduction in snow and ice amounts. After a quick morning burst of snow and/or snow-sleet mix, which could bring 1 to 4 inches of
snow to the area, a brief period of freezing rain can be expected before changing over to rain. Little to no ice is expected.
 
NWCummingWx said:
My freezing line prediction is somewhere from Cherokee (perhaps very near or east of Canton) down to Alpharetta to Norcross to possibly as far south as Snellville and on eastward from there. That is usually the "wedge zone" that does best. Anyone else have their own prediction or does mine sound solid?
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As far as ZR/IP line, maybe a bit west/south of that/.. Canton/Stone Mountain/Conyers/Madison/Washington line.. I m basing on where precip increased all day long, so something is forcing right through there.
 
If the temp can drop a little more maybe we can get snow perhaps a hour or 2 early than current forecasts
 
Webberweather53 said:
Will be interesting to see the sounding later this evening (~8pm or so) from Greenville-Spartanburg, should provide a decent idea on how well the CAMs are verifying against actual observations aloft of the warm nose.
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Yep, not sure what to expect here in Mooresville... Hoping I am a little safer than Charlotte Metro but you never know. That warm nose on some models was pushing up quite high.
 
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