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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

18z RAP is nice. The RAP and HRRR did a great job in 2017 of modeling rain for the triangle.

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The HRRR looked great, too. I am sure there will be ice mixed in, but I think the majority of the models are showing a good hit of snow before changing to ice up my way. I'll take the majority instead of seeking out the one or two that show the worst case scenario.
 
Yeah. That’s literally right up the road from the valley. You should climb the lookout tower and film a video. Post it here. Or better yet ride down the other side of the mountain and go play some blackjack at Harrahs
It is all snow down to 3150 feet in elevation in Maggie valley only a little more to the valley
 
New hrrr has Wake flipping to rain tomorrow at 18z

yeah pretty high chance Wake flips to a sleet/zr sleet/rain mix as the peak passes. temps are at 33 so any colder and that rain is topping us off.

COuld be a big mixed bag across wake. 2-4 snow .5-1.5 sleet then .25-.4 of zr/rain would be a nice solid covering
 
From the other board

Literally, the 18Z HRRR is snow from the Triad to RDU from roughly 1am to 10am. After 10, it transitions to sleet at RDU before rain around noon. It does bring sleet into the Triad by 11-noon,but bythen 12 or more inches of snow has fallen.
 
Is that better than the last one or worse?

The LP on 18z hrrr follows a large tstorm up the NC coast. so its a tiny bit worse. maybe 2-4hrs of sleet/rain mix to end. 12z was only 1-2hrs mist at the end.

But that's IF that one tstorm decides to ride the coast. This LP is so weak a thunderstorm can yank it around.
 
The LP on 18z hrrr follows a large tstorm up the NC coast. so its a tiny bit worse. maybe 2-4hrs of sleet/rain mix to end. 12z was only 1-2hrs mist at the end.

But that's IF that one tstorm decides to ride the coast. This LP is so weak a thunderstorm can yank it around.
Thanks. Not sure why I bothered to ask. I knew it would be worse. Why can’t we get one of those meso high things?!
 
Clt gets sleet while north meck gets pasted and pelted with heavy wet snow mixed with sleet on the hrrr, then all turns to a sleet/zr mix, kinda matches brad p map
 
This was just retweeted by the GSP NWS:
Screenshot-2018-12-08-at-2-49-31-PM.png
 
Thanks. Not sure why I bothered to ask. I knew it would be worse. Why can’t we get one of those meso high things?!

yeah its long range HRRR though. I don't really pay much attention outside 10-13hrs of hrrr. Trends at that time frame are looking solid. outside of 14hrs the HRRR is prone to make a lot of shifts and noise
 
Writing is on the walls for RDU

We'll see how this goes, still plenty of room for Raleigh to get up to 3-4" and potentially verify the higher forecasts yesterday, but there are many good reasons I only went 1-3" in my map yesterday for both the Triangle area & Charlotte, I may keep this or bump to 2-5" depending on how we appear to be evolving relative to the short-range CAMs later this evening. Many ridiculed the NAM for getting the pattern wrong so it should simply be dismissed entirely but, models can easily be right for the wrong reasons and when I see a 60+ knot jet being modeled at the peak of the warm nose near 700 hPa coupled to about 180 degrees of deep layer veering thru the profile this brings back haunting memories of January 2017 around here. While the NAM shows all snow verbatim, it may change to sleet faster than modeled and that seems to happen more often than not lately in setups like this.

nam4km_2018120812_024_35.83--78.75.png

Compare the 3km NAM forecast w/ this sounding I took with my colleagues during January 2017 at NC State.
The soundings themselves are actually similar, Notice both have a 60+ knot jet ~ 700 hPa and a lot of veering in the mid-levels, the 3km NAM just doesn't have a pronounced warm nose aloft, at least not yet anyways lol.

C1iRM7NVEAA85qk.jpg
 
HREF is sounding warning bells for a lot of ZR in the Upstate over to CLT, still.
 
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