droptines35758
Member
Snowing on I40, MM 38.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The HRRR looked great, too. I am sure there will be ice mixed in, but I think the majority of the models are showing a good hit of snow before changing to ice up my way. I'll take the majority instead of seeking out the one or two that show the worst case scenario.
Cmr4407
Member
It is all snow down to 3150 feet in elevation in Maggie valley only a little more to the valley
Cary_Snow95
Member
New hrrr has Wake flipping to rain tomorrow at 18z
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Avalanche
Member
Surface temps good enough to avoid fzrn?
Snowluvr
Member
I just took a look at the Cataloochi ski area and it's coming down nice.
Avalanche
Member
Mm? Mount mitchell?
Is that better than the last one or worse?
Fountainguy97
Member
yeah pretty high chance Wake flips to a sleet/zr sleet/rain mix as the peak passes. temps are at 33 so any colder and that rain is topping us off.
COuld be a big mixed bag across wake. 2-4 snow .5-1.5 sleet then .25-.4 of zr/rain would be a nice solid covering
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Brick Tamland
Guest
From the other board
Literally, the 18Z HRRR is snow from the Triad to RDU from roughly 1am to 10am. After 10, it transitions to sleet at RDU before rain around noon. It does bring sleet into the Triad by 11-noon,but bythen 12 or more inches of snow has fallen.
Literally, the 18Z HRRR is snow from the Triad to RDU from roughly 1am to 10am. After 10, it transitions to sleet at RDU before rain around noon. It does bring sleet into the Triad by 11-noon,but bythen 12 or more inches of snow has fallen.
Fountainguy97
Member
The LP on 18z hrrr follows a large tstorm up the NC coast. so its a tiny bit worse. maybe 2-4hrs of sleet/rain mix to end. 12z was only 1-2hrs mist at the end.
But that's IF that one tstorm decides to ride the coast. This LP is so weak a thunderstorm can yank it around.
11 ish hours of snow with a 8-6:1 ratio would create lower amounts, but still a good amount
MM= Mile Marker
Thanks. Not sure why I bothered to ask. I knew it would be worse. Why can’t we get one of those meso high things?!
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah my question is once Wake flips how much rain falls. Will it be a drizzle or a steady down pour. I lean towards drizzle
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Clt gets sleet while north meck gets pasted and pelted with heavy wet snow mixed with sleet on the hrrr, then all turns to a sleet/zr mix, kinda matches brad p map
Yellow Snow
Member
This was just retweeted by the GSP NWS:
Fountainguy97
Member
yeah its long range HRRR though. I don't really pay much attention outside 10-13hrs of hrrr. Trends at that time frame are looking solid. outside of 14hrs the HRRR is prone to make a lot of shifts and noise
18Z NAM is warmer.
Snownut
Member
Folks in Ne GA, WNC, and upstate SC are going to have a hell of a ride overnight! Heavy snow/Sleet
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Cary_Snow95
Member
Writing is on the walls for RDU
That front thump of snow is going to be impressive
Yellow Snow
Member
Peachtree City just tweeted out this link to a Brasstown Bald streaming webcam, saying that it's getting some "light wintery accumulations". Hard to tell since the Mars lander has better video quality than this thing, but judge for yourself:
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detailfull/conf/home/?cid=fsm9_029107
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detailfull/conf/home/?cid=fsm9_029107
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We'll see how this goes, still plenty of room for Raleigh to get up to 3-4" and potentially verify the higher forecasts yesterday, but there are many good reasons I only went 1-3" in my map yesterday for both the Triangle area & Charlotte, I may keep this or bump to 2-5" depending on how we appear to be evolving relative to the short-range CAMs later this evening. Many ridiculed the NAM for getting the pattern wrong so it should simply be dismissed entirely but, models can easily be right for the wrong reasons and when I see a 60+ knot jet being modeled at the peak of the warm nose near 700 hPa coupled to about 180 degrees of deep layer veering thru the profile this brings back haunting memories of January 2017 around here. While the NAM shows all snow verbatim, it may change to sleet faster than modeled and that seems to happen more often than not lately in setups like this.
Compare the 3km NAM forecast w/ this sounding I took with my colleagues during January 2017 at NC State.
The soundings themselves are actually similar, Notice both have a 60+ knot jet ~ 700 hPa and a lot of veering in the mid-levels, the 3km NAM just doesn't have a pronounced warm nose aloft, at least not yet anyways lol.
Kylo
Member
Agreed. All models are showing a nice front end thump and then flips to something.
3km NAM just though 12z
I thought the front end thump looked better, but transitioned to mix a little faster. Looked like a wash
Looks pretty light to me.
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WeatherLC
Guest
Can someone post 18z nam zr maps? I can’t access it
droptines35758
Member
Top of Old Fort mountain was white. It was 32° at the top, and 37° at the bottom.
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WeatherLC
Guest
Northeast Georgia too?
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WeatherLC
Guest
Shawn please check pm
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Looks like a dusting-inch to me right now. Yeah, I'd call that light.
Already getting ZR and IP in Spartanburg.