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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Bsud said:
When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

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Talking about MS/AL is what I think he was saying
 
Bsud said:
When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

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exactly, I here people say "oh its warmer this run" or " precip is delayed this go around". So I go look at the model and that's not always the case for my area or other areas. It completely depends on where you are. People need to give locations along with these observations on the models. Sometimes you can get a sense of where it's being referenced. But other times not. Not directed at anyone in particular. I'm sure i've done it too lol.
 
Storm5 said:
Only way this works is if this closes off . Otherwise it’s cold light rain
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Bsud said:
When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
He’s talking about the backside of the system the upper level low (ull). Whole different from the front side of the system.
 
Bsud said:
When you say only way this works, what areas are you referring to.

This is what's confusing for people. No one knows what areas people are referring too.

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Click to expand...

Talking about areas to the west of the apps with the trailing energy


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Got a very similar sounding to you sd
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I'm a big fan of dry cold layers from 950-700. Really leads me to believe that we start as snow and go to sleet but those layers will be quickly warmed as winds shift south. It'll be interesting to see what we do at the surface

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SD said:
I'm a big fan of dry cold layers from 950-700. Really leads me to believe that we start as snow and go to sleet but those layers will be quickly warmed as winds shift south. It'll be interesting to see what we do at the surface

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I think if you can manage to get freezing at the sfc early, it’s gonna be hard to push it above with your cad source.
 
I think at this point, CAD areas south of 85 need to hope for a slightly faster/weaker 50/50 low so our HP can push east before our LP does. Need to filter in that cold dry air before the onset of precipitation. When will we get our first sample of that shortwave?
 
I had one those dry layers back in November and manage to get sleet/rain mix about 1/4th of the storm and that dry layer was only confined to 885-925 mb, also that cad setup was a in-situ, this dry air is much more pronounced, and this cad looks more classical, we'll see
 
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