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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Robert West said:
Idk who created this radar simulator, but it keeps showing up on here. It's showing a mix way to far South everytime. Would not believe this at all.
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We will see come storm time. Even WSBTVs in house model showed something similar last night with freezing temps way down in ATL. With a 1035 mb high at least that wouldn't be too far off I'd say. Never underestimate the CAD.
 
Kylo said:
I recall looking at the big snow event for Kansas City to Chicago a couple of weeks back and checked the GFS and Euro on which model did better. The GFS started to hone in on day 3 and Euro day 4, we are at that point today with the Euro. Going to give greatest weight to Euro/EPS todays runs on forward.
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Did you check the FV3 or CMC to see how they did? Would be curious to know.
 
Kylo said:
I recall looking at the big snow event for Kansas City to Chicago a couple of weeks back and checked the GFS and Euro on which model did better. The GFS started to hone in on day 3 and Euro day 4, we are at that point today with the Euro. Going to give greatest weight to Euro/EPS todays runs on forward.
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Last night's Euro seemed plausible to me for our area: an inch or two of snow from the front end thump, followed by a period of rain Sunday night into early Monday, and a bit more snow on the backside late Monday/early Tuesday morning. GFS has a similar solution but the clown map depicting like 8 inches for our area seems unrealistic due to the marginal temperatures.
 
I wouldn't rely on the surface temps. or upper air on the GFS. The temps. will be more accurate on the high res mesoscale models.
 
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Here's a good look at the 925mb temps as the storm really gets going and temps are rising in some areas. You can see the CAD signature quite well and this is the GFS which is likely way too warm as it always is with CAD.
gfs_2018-12-05-12Z_102_41.778_269.6_29.556_293.6_Temperature_925.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
We will see come storm time. Even WSBTVs in house model showed something similar last night with freezing temps way down in ATL. With a 1035 mb high at least that wouldn't be too far off I'd say. Never underestimate the CAD.
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This could be a bigger ice threat with the way the CAD is setting up. The last ice storm we had a few years back included our area and not Atlanta. The city itself hasn't seen ice in a while so quite overdue!
 
CMC doesn't know what to do, 12z has the low further north than it's previous run. I wouldn't rely solely with the track of low on the CMC.
 
Arcc said:
Not to be a Debbie downer, but if you are at the point of climbing and jumping at each model run at three-four days out, you are 95% done for.
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We need to put superglue at the bottom of the cliff so jumpers stay there.
WeatherLC said:
Remember February 15? The storm was written off and ended up being a big ice storm
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My point exactly. Have to see how we roll into the system and how the wet bulbs stand before declaring anything.
 
GaStorm said:
This could be a bigger ice threat with the way the CAD is setting up. The last ice storm we had a few years back included our area and not Atlanta. The city itself hasn't seen ice in a while so quite overdue!
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How rare are ice storms in Early December in Atlanta ?
 
Storm5 said:
The FV3 has a much better piece of energy dropping down the backside of the trough vs the gfs . Further west , consolidated and at a better angle for those west of the apps
8de862a6c961d3786e5f9299749f16ac.png


12z FV3
b2fd6bf4dd8b9e28680b1b08bfdc7638.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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If only it we had the western ridge farther west and the s/w farther west.
 
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