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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Looks good to me! Its sleet storm or bust for fringe areas at this point. May be a sleet storm as well for some of those who think they’re getting 10”. It’s a very fluid situation
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I was comparing it to the 12z where it had the rain/snow line way south for like 5 hours. Now, it is rapidly translating north. Maybe it’ll trend back.
 
Allan Huffman also brought to my attention the RGEM just now on Twitter. Jim Cantore must have had some inside knowledge about ditching Asheville for Boone. Some of models will easily be off 10” because of their mishandle of the thermal profile.
 
RGEM went north

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BirdManDoomW said:
Allan Huffman also brought to my attention the RGEM just now on Twitter. Jim Cantore must have had some inside knowledge about ditching Asheville for Boone. Some of models will easily be off 10” because of their mishandle of the thermal profile.
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Asheville city never does well with CAD. You want to be just east of the escarpment with CAD.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
You still get the intial thump but you will be sourly disappointed by Sunday evening. 75% confident of this icy mix scenario.
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Provide your evidence of this other than just wishing the worst scenario for people. As I see it, you, whoever you are, are the only one calling this. LOL
 
Anderson and Laurens now with a winter storm warning. That makes me feel a tad better
 
Been sleeting near the border of nc/sc south of charlotte in areas like rock hill and Rockingham
 
DadOfJax said:
Provide your evidence of this other than just wishing the worst scenario for people. As I see it, you, whoever you are, are the only one calling this. LOL
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It’s my forecast not a wish. Trust me, I would much rather see this set up over Charlotte not Asheville proper. I hope I’m wrong and this significant snow changes into a historical one..but I’m very confident now the chances diminished south of Wilkes County minus a few mountain locations south of Blowing Rock.
 
I don’t wanna forget my SC friends but 1-3” of sleet may occur north of i85 with the most along the state border.
 
Like most storms, there will be a lot of local variability, if you get under the bright banding echoes prior to the changeover, your local could get rocked. Given the west to east set up some areas might get trained on with the heavier precip and others not so much. As usual we will be eyeballing the radars!
 
I don't get it, CAD seems to be working in nicely but the surface temps in CLT at least seem to be torching. Im guessing its due to the UHI, which I hope won't be a factor or at least a big factor.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s my forecast not a wish. Trust me, I would much rather see this set up over Charlotte not Asheville proper. I hope I’m wrong and this significant snow changes into a historical one..but I’m very confident now the chances diminished south of Wilkes County minus a few mountain locations south of Blowing Rock.
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So not based on anything except Alan Hufmans post of the RGEM....lol...got it!
 
Well, what ever we get here, it looks like it will be mostly frozen and a mess. Hopefully, it is mostly snow, but a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain would actually be a worse storm as far as impact to the roads and power.
 
SimeonNC said:
I don't get it, CAD seems to be working in nicely but the surface temps in CLT at least seem to be torching. Im guessing its due to the UHI, which I hope won't be a factor or at least a big factor.
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I don't think the CAD has gotten to Charlotte. The dewpoint gradient is still to the north. Tbh, the CAD hasn't made much of a progression at all recently, needs a re-enforcing push, the high hasn't quite built in yet

EDIT: I see the pressure field suggests it's into SC, but I suppose the core of the dry air is lagging behind
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DadOfJax said:
So not based on anything except Alan Hufmans post of the RGEM....lol...got it!
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My worry started from the NAM and general climo of the area. It’s extremely hard to limit a warm nose with such a wet storm system. Also, it rarely underperforms which I took in consideration.
 
WxWatch said:
Some of the sfc temps are warm, but don't worry. Once that frozen precip starts falling in the upper levels, it will supercool the air that will eventually sink down to the sfc. Upstate SC friends, that process is happening now. NE GA, the 850mb temps are still dropping over that area as well. Be on the lookout for the mix.
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Atlanta met said radar is picking up on melting snow between Gainesville and Atlanta. Gotta be a good sign
 
I’m pretty nervous tbh the 0C 850 line has only moved slowly north in the past couple of hours over southeastern NC.. very concerning.. I’ll probably have to move east like I’ve wanted to this whole time. Stuck in a rain/snow mix for the past hour while locations a county east reporting snow where 0c line dips down
 
WxWatch said:
Some of the sfc temps are warm, but don't worry. Once that frozen precip starts falling in the upper levels, it will supercool the air that will eventually sink down to the sfc. Upstate SC friends, that process is happening now. NE GA, the 850mb temps are still dropping over that area as well. Be on the lookout for the mix.
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I’m in liberty north of 85 in upstate sc. it’s just a 40 degrees cold rain temp hasn’t dropped at all.
 
EastAtlwx said:
I’m pretty nervous tbh the 0C 850 line has only moved slowly north in the past couple of hours over southeastern NC.. very concerning.. I’ll probably have to move east like I’ve wanted to this whole time. Stuck in a rain/snow mix for the past hour while locations a county east reporting snow where 0c line dips down
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You noticed it too? I thought I was just seeing things.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Charlotte is sitting at 45 and their forecast high is 41. In a storm where every degree is important, this cant be good can it?
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Temps always bust high the day before an impending storm. It’s one of the rules.
 
To my south in concord, dews are in the 20s.....
 

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Looking like this may be a bust again for much of the I95 to west of Raleigh. Looks like the people profiles are trending way too warm?
 
EastAtlwx said:
I’m pretty nervous tbh the 0C 850 line has only moved slowly north in the past couple of hours over southeastern NC.. very concerning.. I’ll probably have to move east like I’ve wanted to this whole time. Stuck in a rain/snow mix for the past hour while locations a county east reporting snow where 0c line dips down
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You’re seeing a R/S mix in Conyers?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
these temps in the mid 40s were always well predicted by models. HRRR clearly has many areas in the 43-45 range. Temps dive tonight with arrival of heavy precip. That was always the forecast
 
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