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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

packfan98 said:
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I've always found the bufkit to be more accurate. There will definitely be some broken hearts with this one. I have a feeling that the surface temps are going to trend stronger to at least enhance the frozen precip although it would be sleet/fzrn for many.
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No I agree completely about it being more accurate, of course it's the GFS and anything can happen..... I didn't mention it only showed .9 snow for RDU shhhh
 
SD said:
The more of this true arctic airmass moving from the lakes into the NE friday and Saturday that can be wedged south instead of sliding out to sea the better.
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Agreed
 
To our friends in Ga/SC these things are what to watch for trends to give you a better chance of frozen
1. High needs to be minimum pressure of 1038
2 Want the system to slide a little south still
3. want the CAD to be established before onset of precip
4. track needs to be off the coast not on it
5. DP should be in mid 20's or preferably lower even (this will depend on location and strength of the high)
 
MichaelJ said:
To our friends in Ga/SC these things are what to watch for trends to give you a better chance of frozen
1. High needs to be minimum pressure of 1038
2 Want the system to slide a little south still
3. want the CAD to be established before onset of precip
4. track needs to be off the coast not on it
5. DP should be in mid 20's or preferably lower even (this will depend on location and strength of the high)
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Hopefully we will see that today
 
packfan98 said:
The bufkit output for Greesboro on the 6z GFS was 25.7" of snow and .13" of sleet. No freezing rain. 2.59" of qpf. WOW!
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That's adding hourly snowfall, which is what snow maps do, however it doesnt account for melting or any kind of mixed ptype if they're present.

Using "snow accumulation" puts it at 20.1"....still crazy.
 
We been tracking this storm so long, and we are barely into nam range now, props to the gfs for showing this storm although this model is still a dumpster fire
 
Allan had some good tweets this morning. It does seem like a further north track with the SLP along the gulf while we have the cold in place will give central NC it's best chance at snow, if we miss the overrunning then cold could potentially be gone.

In a perfect world the 50/50 would be just as south but slightly east to allow the low to track a little further east off the coast then inside HAT or something.

 
MichaelJ said:
To our friends in Ga/SC these things are what to watch for trends to give you a better chance of frozen
1. High needs to be minimum pressure of 1038
2 Want the system to slide a little south still
3. want the CAD to be established before onset of precip
4. track needs to be off the coast not on it
5. DP should be in mid 20's or preferably lower even (this will depend on location and strength of the high)
Click to expand...

Not holding out much hope for us at this point. I know one thing. It's FRIGID out there right now... and the dew has decided to freeze since I've been at work.
 
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