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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Hrrr has intense snow bands over my area by 4z tommorow and I heard that the picture means heavier snow if I'm not mistaken ? Still learning
 

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Man if we can just get these dew points in central and northern va to work down
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SD said:
Man if we can just get these dew points in central and northern va to work down
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Gonna be a bit slower with the 1038 vs a 1045 high.


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Not buying the nam. Almost every other model depicts at least a major sleet storm for upstate is not sleet and snow north of 85. I’m not saying nam isn’t right. But if it is no way upstate gets warning criteria winter weather. However I believe it’s wrong
 
drfranklin said:
I live in Greenville, SC - I see you are monitoring GSP radar - where are you located now? That's a fantastic vantage point!
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We are in Maggie Valley....havent really found a radar thats giving me good results of overhead conditions....I think mainly due to the mountains. GSP gives me an idea of whats coming.
 
12Z NAM looks a little colder in mid levels compared to 6Z, still a lot of mixing in Piedmont regions
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hrrr has intense snow bands over my area by 4z tommorow and I heard that the picture means heavier snow if I'm not mistaken ? Still learning
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That's right. The area between the dashed lined is the DGZ (Dendritic Growth Layer). It's between -12 and -18C where snowflakes grow the more efficiently. The horizontal bars are omega, or upward motion. So seeing a max in upward velocity in the DGZ is a sign it'll be snowing pretty hard (if it's cold enough to support snow)
 
Latest HRRR pretty much has everything but ZR. Really need these lower Tds to filter in before I buy a ZR threat...although in my experience, we usually get sleet over ZR. The upstream dews are not to shabby though, will let us wetbulb into the 20s if they make it in here soonScreenshot from 2018-12-08 14-26-22.png
 

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SD said:
That's a big uptick in mby. At this point its every man for himself

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Agree and I still feel like from everything I've seen this morning and what I have seen happen in the past I'll be snow for good duration of the storm prior to any changeover.

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Oppp, warmer air getting scoured out quick at 925mb
 

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Our 3km nam has performed HORRIBLY with 850low placement.

Here is an example it’s literally hundreds of miles off.

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3km is also very amped. It’s low is 1003 compared to 1007 at 31hrs on hrrr.

I’m not sure we can trust the nam right now.
 
scroback said:
Latest HRRR pretty much has everything but ZR. Really need these lower Tds to filter in before I buy a ZR threat...although in my experience, we usually get sleet over ZR. The upstream dews are not to shabby though, will let us wetbulb into the 20s if they make it in here soonView attachment 8902
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I’m hugging this model more then the nam. I believe it has a better grasp of cold air for upstate sc
 
So if you're hating on the NAM, here's a win for you. This was the yesterday's 12z NAM, valid 14z today, along with the Analysis. 850 0c's are about 50 miles south than forecast. However, this may only have implications during the onset of the precip (but that very well may be where 80% of accumulations come from during this storm
 

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Can it snow with upper level and mid level temps at 1-2 degrees C or does it have to be 0
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Actually temp wise this run seemed like a step back in the right direction. Imo
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Yeah tbh I did the wrong thing, didn't have time to look at details and just looked at RC's la kucaracha map and posted that Lol

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Takes a look at scroback's hrrrrrrrrr maps and almost passes out.... I want to believe.
Btw DP down to 27 here, being the NE most member this will be good benchmark for my friends to my SW

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Fwiw, our low was 40 here vs a forecast of 36. We may end up wetbulbing down to 38.5 but, still, 2.5 warmer is a huge miss in a saturated environment. Not the best sign further east.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Our 3km nam has performed HORRIBLY with 850low placement.

Here is an example it’s literally hundreds of miles off.

View attachment 8905

3km is also very amped. It’s low is 1003 compared to 1007 at 31hrs on hrrr.

I’m not sure we can trust the nam right now.
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Great post. IMO if the warm nose is more prominent than expected by NWS, myself, Euro, FV3, GFS, HRRR it's just blind luck. The model has displayed zero skill with this system since it's genesis in TX/OK.
 
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