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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Stormdoc said:
Yes it would. Plus, in my experience with winter storms if they start out better/earlier than expected they tend to overperform. If you wake up in the morning and the precip is still to your west, it’s going to be a dud.
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Last year's Dec storm over performed all the way back into Texas and probably was a earlier onset by 4-5 hours that Friday morning
 
1st and very most important is we need the high to quick being slow and actually anchor in before the arrival precipitation . I know temps will be under forecasted and they will end up a bit colder but that's only IF we get that high to build in before the precip. If we DONT (IMHO) nobody outside WNC (and prob central NC) into the upstate are going to like the outcome.

For my GA and Bama and TN friends....we HAVE to hope and rely on that upper low to drop south over us like yesterday's runs or this is just a very cold rain this time. Just my 2 cents for now. On to the 12z runs .
 
deltadog03 said:
1st and very most important is we need the high to quick being slow and actually anchor in before the arrival precipitation . I know temps will be under forecasted and they will end up a bit colder but that's only IF we get that high to build in before the precip. If we DONT (IMHO) nobody outside WNC (and prob central NC) into the upstate are going to like the outcome.

For my GA and Bama and TN friends....we HAVE to hope and rely on that upper low to drop south over us like yesterday's runs or this is just a very cold rain this time. Just my 2 cents for now. On to the 12z runs .
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When will this wave be sampled and that data be put into the models?


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deltadog03 said:
1st and very most important is we need the high to quick being slow and actually anchor in before the arrival precipitation.
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This is probably the single most important thing to nail down.

The gfs and fv3 don’t really establish a big CAD before the storm. The NAM does.

This is a major discrepancy.
6E826F50-EE3B-44F9-BA7B-A2F8D230CC6E.gif
 
The 6z gefs city grids for the high impact areas are amazing. It reminds me of the big Mid Atlantic storms a few years back. Take a look:
KGSO_2018120506_gefs_snow_384.png
 
SD said:
Yeah you can see the models starting to hint at an initial shot of precip well ahead of the system see the nam below. If we can get that into the area and it go to town and wetbulb the column this becomes a completely different system for us
ffdc38e61caf6b34f81c535ae2db3ec6.jpg


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That could be our ticket, as Eric mentioned and I've seen it many times too, that transition takes longer and can easily pick up a couple inches or so on the front side. CAD are fun
 
Atm I think areas north of clt like huntersville, kannapolis, Salisbury will probably see a nice 12 hour thumping than switch to sleet and zr than back to snow
 
Fountainguy97 said:
This is probably the single most important thing to nail down.

The gfs and fv3 don’t really establish a big CAD before the storm. The NAM does.

This is a major discrepancy.
View attachment 8411
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And I would tend to believe the NAM for now because the EURO is showing about the same. I will say both the Nam and euro trended better about getting that high over and in place quicker that's super key
 
deltadog03 said:
And I would tend to believe the NAM for now because the EURO is showing about the same. I will say both the Nam and euro trended better about getting that high over and in place quicker that's super key
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Agreed and not just because it's "wishcasting" but I'd lean that way too: 1) the NAM is pretty good with synoptic setup 2) the EPS leaning that way 3) and with a good HP in the right location a CAD wedge is notorious for being colder, stronger and more expansive
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed and not just because it's "wishcasting" but I'd lean that way too: 1) the NAM is pretty good with synoptic setup 2) the EPS leaning that way 3) and with a good HP in the right location a CAD wedge is notorious for being colder, stronger and more expansive
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I'll never forget how a few years ago models were showing a nice snowstorm for most of NC, the NAM got in range and showed the rain/snow line west of Raleigh and people said it was wrong and had no idea how to handle the synoptic setup. It ended up nailing that transition zone and globals, even the Euro, never really caught up. Once we get in it's range tomorrow afternoon and the RGEM those two models will be the go to models in my book. This setup is honestly the type that can trend colder instead of warmer because of the CAD and HP strength/position.
 
Well, the NAM is supposed to be better the closer we get to the event, so hopefully it is onto something with establishing the CAD.
 
snowlover91 said:
I'll never forget how a few years ago models were showing a nice snowstorm for most of NC, the NAM got in range and showed the rain/snow line west of Raleigh and people said it was wrong and had no idea how to handle the synoptic setup. It ended up nailing that transition zone and globals, even the Euro, never really caught up. Once we get in it's range tomorrow afternoon and the RGEM those two models will be the go to models in my book. This setup is honestly the type that can trend colder instead of warmer because of the CAD and HP strength/position.
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Agreed. I think some folks are getting too caught up in the footprint of snow on the map. It may have a northward expansion due to phasing that can help the mid-atlantic. As long as the track of the low across the gulf and off the SE coast doesn't change, there will be a major storm for many of us. I do think it will trend colder at the surface at least with the CAD. I'll be interested to see if there will be major accumulations of ice and who will get it.
 
packfan98 said:
Agreed. I think some folks are getting too caught up in the footprint of snow on the map. It may have a northward expansion due to phasing that can help the mid-atlantic. As long as the track of the low across the gulf and off the SE coast doesn't change, there will be a major storm for many of us. I do think it will trend colder at the surface at least with the CAD. I'll be interested to see if there will be major accumulations of ice and who will get it.
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What I'm curious to see will be the track of the 850 low on the NAM. A lot of our warm noses in the past have been because the 850 low has trended north or globals didn't fully capture the track and mesoscale influences of it very well. An earlier phase will also allow that to creep north, almost a Miller B style with the 850 low going into Kentucky to die and then a new one forming off the NC coast. The warmer model runs have showed exactly that and if that happens this will be a Western NC storm only. If it takes the southern route advertised by the Euro then it's game on for a lot of NC and will be colder than currently modeled imo.
 
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