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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The most likely areas for sleet and zr is areas around clt, if 850s retreat along with temps below 30, that's not good, especially with a CAD locked in
 
SD said:
I don't like that last frame but I like the general idea. I'm excited to see where models converge on the depth and south push of the cold

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Fair enough because overall it did shift a little north but that heavier band extended eastward along the Va/NC border.... selfish post lol
 
I’m pretty confident that if that high is up there and is as strong as modeled, Raleigh will get some slop at least. I expect we are too Far East for the bulk of the precip being frozen, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. I agree generally about the inevitable NW trend, but it’s a lower probability if we have strong damming.
metwannabe said:
Agreed and not just because it's "wishcasting" but I'd lean that way too: 1) the NAM is pretty good with synoptic setup 2) the EPS leaning that way 3) and with a good HP in the right location a CAD wedge is notorious for being colder, stronger and more expansive
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The troubling thing is the NAM was showing a 1041 HP last night. Now it's 1039. This has been the same trend as the other modeling in their outer ranges. They had 1040+ HPs and now we're looking at mid-1030s. I do not want to see the NAM continue to trend this way.

I don't know why it is that the models are programmed to show a stronger cold press in the long range than actually happens. I wish it was the other way around. That way, we'd have many, many less false snowstorms. That said, I do think the NAM is probably right on how it wants to drive the cold air into the damming regions. If IF IFFF we don't see the high strength diminish AAAANNNDDD we see it's placement favorable, then the CAD will be better than modeled, more like what the NAM is showing. If not, then north it goes, and forget about it around here.
 
Rain Cold said:
I’m pretty confident that if that high is up there and is as strong as modeled, Raleigh will get some slop at least. I expect we are too Far East for the bulk of the precip being frozen, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. I agree generally about the inevitable NW trend, but it’s a lower probability if we have strong damming.

The troubling thing is the NAM was showing a 1041 HP last night. Now it's 1039. This has been the same trend as the other modeling in their outer ranges. They had 1040+ HPs and now we're looking at mid-1030s. I do not want to see the NAM continue to trend this way.

I don't know why it is that the models are programmed to show a stronger cold press in the long range than actually happens. I wish it was the other way around. That way, we'd have many, many less false snowstorms. That said, I do think the NAM is probably right on how it wants to drive the cold air into the damming regions. If IF IFFF we don't see the high strength diminish AAAANNNDDD we see it's placement favorable, then the CAD will be better than modeled, more like what the NAM is showing. If not, then north it goes, and forget about it around here.
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It's worth noting that the 06z NAM does have the 1041 HP still through hour 81 and then hour 84 it drops to 1039, so it's still solidly a few mb stronger than other modeling.
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I’m pretty confident that if that high is up there and is as strong as modeled, Raleigh will get some slop at least. I expect we are too Far East for the bulk of the precip being frozen, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. I agree generally about the inevitable NW trend, but it’s a lower probability if we have strong damming.

The troubling thing is the NAM was showing a 1041 HP last night. Now it's 1039. This has been the same trend as the other modeling in their outer ranges. They had 1040+ HPs and now we're looking at mid-1030s. I do not want to see the NAM continue to trend this way.

I don't know why it is that the models are programmed to show a stronger cold press in the long range than actually happens. I wish it was the other way around. That way, we'd have many, many less false snowstorms. That said, I do think the NAM is probably right on how it wants to drive the cold air into the damming regions. If IF IFFF we don't see the high strength diminish AAAANNNDDD we see it's placement favorable, then the CAD will be better than modeled, more like what the NAM is showing. If not, then north it goes, and forget about it around here.
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Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think 1039 or 1038 is going to be a huge difference than a 1041, I know we can't afford for to be any weaker but that sure is enough to do the trick imo... obviously it would help if we had a much colder arctic airmass just to our north but I still think it can do the trick for the front end precip.

Btw when is the last time we tracked a storm for this long and still not in NAM range? Lol
 
metwannabe said:
Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think 1039 or 1038 is going to be a huge difference than a 1041, I know we can't afford for to be any weaker but that sure is enough to do the trick imo... obviously it would help if we had a much colder arctic airmass just to our north but I still think it can do the trick for the front end precip.

Btw when is the last time we tracked a storm for this long and still not in NAM range? Lol
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Right! I'm just hoping it's not a weakening trend as we move in. 1039-1041, no biggie. 1041-1035, bigger deal.
 
snowlover91 said:
It's worth noting that the 06z NAM does have the 1041 HP still through hour 81 and then hour 84 it drops to 1039, so it's still solidly a few mb stronger than other modeling.
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png
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Good point. I didn't catch that. Another thing to think about (and maybe someone smarter than me can tell me if this holds water or not), is that I guess it's possible that both the shortwave that drops in and reinforces the high and the shortwave that drops down and interacts with the low are still over data sparse areas and maybe not being fully sampled, causing the models to not be as accurate as to how things will play out (not that they are expected to be accurate at 5+ days anyway).
 
Rain Cold said:
Good point. I didn't catch that. Another thing to think about (and maybe someone smarter than me can tell me if this holds water or not), is that I guess it's possible that both the shortwave that drops in and reinforces the high and the shortwave that drops down and interacts with the low are still over data sparse areas and maybe not being fully sampled, causing the models to not be as accurate as to how things will play out (not that they are expected to be accurate at 5+ days anyway).
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You're right, the northern stream is usually what throws a monkey wrench in a lot of our storms because it is moving so fast, not well sampled and the shortwaves evolve pretty quickly. A faster/slower shortwave coming down has been the difference in many storms trending in our favor or against us within about 48 hours. The models keep waffling back and forth on how quickly the phasing happens with decent jumps run to run with our 850 low, especially the GFS. This should settle down tomorrow evening but until then I'm expecting the same type of waffling/volatility we've been seeing.
 
Even tho I live north of I-85 and I'm also north of clt, I'm thinking about driving to families house in greensboro
 
6z EPS. Improves on overrunning on Sunday for central NC. Also, SLP ticks north a little stronger and a little north. When SLP reaches the atlantic off the NC/SC coast its a little east of 0z run due to the 50/50 lifting a little further north.

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_SECONUS_hr144.png
EPS.gif
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed and not just because it's "wishcasting" but I'd lean that way too: 1) the NAM is pretty good with synoptic setup 2) the EPS leaning that way 3) and with a good HP in the right location a CAD wedge is notorious for being colder, stronger and more expansive
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Agreed. And to be honest, I wouldn’t mind if the whole wave slow down to get that high pressure in the best spot it can be
 
The ensembles have been pretty consistent. Mean keeps showing 3 to 6 for Wake, and the control 5 to 8. I think we get too caught up in the totals sometimes. They don't ever get the totals exactly right. The good thing is they are still showing the potential for a good storm here. Just have to see what actually happens. It's like having a good basketball team that shows potential to get a big win, but it doesn't guarantee they are going to do it.
 
metwannabe said:
Thanks for the link.... wish I hadn't looked Lol. Good reminder why the clown maps are horrible, 06z GFS here 1.47 QPF, zilch sn/ip/zr
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I've always found the bufkit to be more accurate. There will definitely be some broken hearts with this one. I have a feeling that the surface temps are going to trend stronger to at least enhance the frozen precip although it would be sleet/fzrn for many.
 
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