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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

NWS RAH now going for 4-8" of snow with 1-2" of sleet on top. WRAL is much more conservative with 1-4" predicted. I lean towards the WRAL prediction now due to the possibility of a warm nose.
 
Off topic, but what is the largest thread total number of pages? I am rooting for all of you folks. I am just west of Atlanta so I will look forward to hearing from everyone. Very possible that this thread sets a record for pages!
 
CyclonicFury said:
NWS RAH now going for 4-8" of snow with 1-2" of sleet on top. WRAL is much more conservative with 1-4" predicted. I lean towards the WRAL prediction now due to the possibility of a warm nose.
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The NAM is the only one showing it, and the other models have been more consistent, too.

And WRAL is always going to be lower because they don't want to bust high. They would rather have to increase the totals as the storm unfolds than decrease. That way they can say they did their job of warning the public without overhyping it.
 
k0skinne said:
Off topic, but what is the largest thread total number of pages? I am rooting for all of you folks. I am just west of Atlanta so I will look forward to hearing from everyone. Very possible that this thread sets a record for pages!
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The 2018 banter thread.
 
NAM and RGEM say look at my warm nose....

HRRR and RAP say what warm nose....

Somebody is right and somebody wrong! Here we go boys and girls. If the HRRR is right a very nice thump for RDU
 
Well, I'm about 40 miles NE of ATL. It's 36° with a cold rain right now, I'm expecting a different story by late this afternoon/tonight as that wedge continues to push southward.
 
WxWatch said:
Well, I'm about 40 miles NE of ATL. It's 36° with a cold rain right now, I'm expecting a different story by late this afternoon/tonight as that wedge continues to push southward.
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Still see ice for n ga?
 
I am in full agreement with Joe B. on Twitter. Major BUST for mountains/foothills in the GSP area. Totals likely cut in half there. Still sig. storm but historic in the Blacksburg forecast area of NC where less sleet and ice will fall.
 
Nobody’s going to like the new HRRr very much.
 
Insane 1-3” possibly 4 INCHES of sleet could occur from Winston to Asheville. Per latest modeling. All snow confined to north-west NC.
 
This storm is going to bust for a lot of people. I’m just hoping the ground is white in upstate sc. even just one inch I’ll call it a win. And move on to the next storm
 
Jessy89 said:
Can it snow with upper level and mid level temps at 1-2 degrees C or does it have to be 0
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It's more complicated than just temperature. Completely depends on how deep that 1-2C layer is...how dry it is, what kind of precip rates you are getting, etc. If the precip is heavy, and advections are absent, then yeah, that would probably cool that layer to 0C and it would snow. This case is a little more dynamic though
 
scroback said:
It's more complicated than just temperature. Completely depends on how deep that 1-2C layer is...how dry it is, what kind of precip rates you are getting, etc. If the precip is heavy, and advections are absent, then yeah, that would probably cool that layer to 0C and it would snow. This case is a little more dynamic though
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Thanks for that explanation
 
I am changing my forecast. Huge error potential for southern, central foothills and mountains of NC. Up to 8” in the mtns and 3-6” down below. If that. Sharp increase further north still 12-24” for Boone to Mount Airy.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nobody’s going to like the new HRRr very much.
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Looks good to me! Its sleet storm or bust for fringe areas at this point. May be a sleet storm as well for some of those who think they’re getting 10”. It’s a very fluid situation
 
This is when the short range models start going back and forth with the warm nose and cold air push. Happens every time.
 
DadOfJax said:
Not the case at all....snowing west of Asheville in Maggie Valley now.
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You still get the intial thump but you will be sourly disappointed by Sunday evening. 75% confident of this icy mix scenario.
 
Jessy89 said:
This storm is going to bust for a lot of people. I’m just hoping the ground is white in upstate sc. even just one inch I’ll call it a win. And move on to the next storm
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Jessy, you may be correct; however, have patience - I believe some in Upstate SC with get a winter wonderland overnight - it's Nowcast time and I refuse to look at anymore modeling - remember it's only December 8th - we have all of Jan/Feb - I'm expecting a board-wide event at least once this winter - I'm a Birmingham native and want storm/my AL peeps/everyone to participate
 
drfranklin said:
Jessy, you may be correct; however, have patience - I believe some in Upstate SC with get a winter wonderland overnight - it's Nowcast time and I refuse to look at anymore modeling - remember it's only December 8th - we have all of Jan/Feb - I'm expecting a board-wide event at least once this winter - I'm a Birmingham native and want storm/my AL peeps/everyone to participate
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Yes I agree with you. All we need is a similar set up in mid January. And everyone will win
 
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