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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Meteorologist1999 said:
Show we be using short range models or global?
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I think the Euro has a pretty good handle on things. Maybe to our North it could be off, but I'm not seeing anything to make me think that the Midlands will see much outside of a brief ZR and sleet chance.
Short range will handle thermal structures better (like the NAM suite etc) versus globals, but don't forget that the Euro OP is now 13KM.
 
Very interested to see how far south that SLP will develop and how soon. Also, the strength and position of the HP. I don't really trust any of the models. lol Esp. being down here in the Midlands.
 
25518BFD-DC02-4A02-8B59-186DFB1A7A37.png To this map, what’s the
color guide?? Or scale? It has me at like 20” and there are 3 or 4 shades darker, like 3 miles away!?? Close to 30”??
 
tonysc said:
Oh yeah, the infamous I-20 special from Dallas to the Carolina coast. I don't think I've enjoyed a snowstorm as much since that one.
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I was in Bama then, 4 inches, one of my best snowstorms ever(sad I know...)

but Dallas had the biggest snow ever unexpectedly in the middle of the day :eek: a slushy inch was forecast and schools didn't close lol
 
The speeding up of the storm and precip breaking out now, is very bad for people wanting snow and ice! I don’t think the models are showing ice or snow developing until 4-6 AM Sunday morning! Would suck for precip to already be done.
 
I’m telling y’all, earlier precip arrival is not good, especially those on the fringes. If the cold air for snow isn’t arriving till early Sunday morning ( Upstate Sc) and the heavy precip is over, then you know how it goes! My DP is currently 32 and winds out of the South ! The wedge seems quite a ways off!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I’m telling y’all, earlier precip arrival is not good, especially those on the fringes. If the cold air for snow isn’t arriving till early Sunday morning ( Upstate Sc) and the heavy precip is over, then you know how it goes! My DP is currently 32 and winds out of the South ! The wedge seems quite a ways off!
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Your area will see rain before the change to snow. Hrrr has abt .75-1inch falling as rain then a changeover with 1-1.5in qpf to go.
 
Tarheel1 said:
The speeding up of the storm and precip breaking out now, is very bad for people wanting snow and ice! I don’t think the models are showing ice or snow developing until 4-6 AM Sunday morning! Would suck for precip to already be done.
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On the 11pm broadcast, Chris Justus said they were expecting snow and sleet to start in the GSP area around 8pm, and they wouldn't be surprised it it began even in the late afternoon.
 
That HRRR imagery is sleet mixing in with the rain close to the Midlands btw... and even then im not sure it'd have a chance to make it to the ground if it could form.

idk.png
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Yeah I'm glad too I never been this much excited about seeing snow ever
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I think you said in an earlier post that 4 inches is the most you'd ever seen. You're in for a treat. Once you get past around 6 inches of snow, it's hard to explain the awesomeness of it compared to only a 3 or 4 inch storm. You'll see.
 
tonysc said:
I think you said in an earlier post that 4 inches is the most you'd ever seen. You're in for a treat. Once you get past around 6 inches of snow, it's hard to explain the awesomeness of it compared to only a 3 or 4 inch storm. You'll see.
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I want to see that too! Last 6” + snow I saw was March 1 2009. 8” of paste
 
662BA29C-417F-442E-A032-B8B5B3A1294F.png 6z RGEM, gives us just 22-27” in my back yard!! Gonna need more beer! The 30” lollipop over Cashiers, looks delightful!
 
Peachtree City has upgraded some of the northeast Georgia counties that were under a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory (this includes parts of north metro Atlanta):
416 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch expected. Winds will gust to as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Georgia, mainly north and east of a line from Ellijay to Jasper to Cumming to Lawrenceville to Lexington.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...While temperatures near the ground will be at or just below freezing, minor ice accumulations on trees and power lines are likely leading to some power outages. Periods of moderate to heavy snow may reduce visibility to less than 1 mile. Plan on slippery road conditions especially on bridges and overpasses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Screenshot-2018-12-08-at-4-59-25-AM.png
 
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ForsythSnow said:
The 6Z GFS is caving to the FV3 it appears. Snow area more expansive and even down further into GA. 6Z FV3 just slightly more expansive than 0Z means we've almost made it to verification. Both models are also colder.
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That was a good run by the FV for sure.


fv3-gfs_2018-12-08-06Z_060_41.944_268.2_29.722_292.2_Snowfall_48.png
fv3-gfs_2018-12-08-06Z_060_37.166_274.989_32.902_283.217_Snowfall_48_highways_cities.png
 
The 6z ICON and RGEM have adjusted south quite a bit. I expect the Nam to do the same for the 12z suite. It has been amping the low too much, a known bias. We need it to align with the other models with the setup before putting too much effort into examining the column profile.
 
Kylo said:
That was a good run by the FV for sure.


View attachment 8886
View attachment 8885
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Is that map filtered or not?
Also, FFC took a reasonable approach calling the global models garbage handling the CAD areas and used studies from local areas to develop their latest forecasts and call the advisories.
With the cool sfc temps from the CAD and near isothermal profile
aloft hovering near freezing through 600mb, initial round of
heavy precip may fall as sleet or snow mainly over higher
elevations of northeast GA this afternoon and evening. As warm
conveyer belt increases tonight, warm nose aloft warms to +2-4C
while sfc temps drop to or just below freezing. While GFS and EC
guidance, which handle CAD events poorly compared with hires CAMs,
were a little warmer, have carefully chosen sfc temp and dewpoint
guidance weighted toward CAMs and MDL National Blend of Models,
which has high weight of CAMs in first 24 hours of forecast.
Statistical and bias-corrected forecasts were much too warm and
handle rare, fast-changing events like this poorly and were not
used. Based on these sfc temps, p-types and snow/ice accumulations
were derived from top-down methodology and local studies, which were
then compared against and nudged by WPC Winter Weather Desk guidance
for a sanity check and better inter-WFO consistency. Results of
these forecasts used to drive winter storm warning and advisory
timing and areas. Appreciate coordination from WPC and surrounding
WFOs.
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There's also this tidbit
Feel greatest winter impact will be ice accumulation after
midnight tonight through mid-morning Sunday. This could occur in
both the higher elevations and in lower elevation areas affected by
the CAD over northeast GA. With such impressive vertical motion and
high QPF, if sfc temperatures go below forecast values (which is as
mentioned above, already weighted toward cooler CAM guidance), both
ice and snow accumulations could go significantly higher than
forecast. Likewise, if temps go a couple degrees warmer than
forecast, will mainly see a heavy rain event with limited winter
weather impacts. If there is one bright spot, its that many
businesses and most schools will be off during this event.
....
Will also have some windy conditions this afternoon and tonight as
pressure gradient between strong sfc low over south GA and CAD
wedge. This strong sfc low and winds are a little atypical for
winter CAD events here, so a little more concerned about the overall
strength and potential of this system. Bust potential is high on
both the low and high side!
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Funny they are are saying their forecast is likely to bust.
 
So are the models looking more favorable for higher snow amounts in Franklin Co. GA N of 85? Trying my best to follow but one minute nothin, next map a lot recent and gettin down to the wire now..Seems like for over a week all the models have been screaming these high totals more consistently than I have ever seen before. Unusual high amounts! Or am I way off on my thinking?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Is that map filtered or not?
Also, FFC took a reasonable approach calling the global models garbage handling the CAD areas and used studies from local areas to develop their latest forecasts and call the advisories.

There's also this tidbit

Funny they are are saying their forecast is likely to bust.
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I believe so, but not 100% sure. Just to compare, this site doesn't factor in frzn as snow, that I know, I don't know about sleet.


Screen Shot 2018-12-08 at 6.08.14 AM.png
 
Kylo said:
I believe so, but not 100% sure. Just to compare, this site doesn't factor in frzn as snow, that I know, I don't know about sleet.


View attachment 8887
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Here's pivotal's snow, or should I say "Snow and Sleet" Depth.
snod.us_se.png

It isn't ZR everywhere
zr_acc.us_se.png

It also certainly ins't snow but is getting pretty close to being, could be sleet and snow too.
snku_acc.us_se.png

Extra map, so frustratingly close
refcmp_ptype.us_se.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Is that map filtered or not?
Also, FFC took a reasonable approach calling the global models garbage handling the CAD areas and used studies from local areas to develop their latest forecasts and call the advisories.

There's also this tidbit

Funny they are are saying their forecast is likely to bust.
Click to expand...

At least they're being honest, I can appreciate and respect that. It's never an easy forecast for wintry weather in N. GA, but this storm is even more complicated than usual.
 
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