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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

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Party sort of died in here with the Euro.

Meanwhile, Fox 5 ATL & WSB TV have shown model runs painting a mix starting Saturday for the far NE corner of GA, getting down to the SW end of Lake Lanier.

Surprised to see them mention it. Seems unusual given the normal hesitancy on winter wx events. I suppose that it isn’t completely unwarranted given the consistency for the far NE corner of Georgia.




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6z FV3-GFS is coming in like gangbusters! Low further south. High pressure feed a little better. Upstate is getting rocked at 96. Let's see where it goes next in a few minutes...
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That 1036mb high pressure on the FV3 is much better than the 1034 on the old GFS. Look at the position of it too. In a perfect position for a strong CAD event. It will come down to the exact track of the surface low, if any phasing occurs, and the track of the 850 low to iron out who sees frozen precip or not. I still expect the surface temps to be colder than what the GFS shows. Let's watch the NAM models and RGEM starting tomorrow and see what happens.
 
For anyone interested, here is the snow depth map from the 6z gfs. I think this would be similar to what we will see if the storm unfolds the way the models are currently predicting. The only thing I would change is to cut the totals by 40-50% on the SE half of the map or so due to sleet.
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packfan98 said:
6z FV3-GFS is coming in like gangbusters! Low further south. High pressure feed a little better. Upstate is getting rocked at 96. Let's see where it goes next in a few minutes...
fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_16.png
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Yeah if I was you I would be getting pretty excited but the writing is on the wall I think for those of us East of Raleigh.

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The primary difference between the 00z and the 06z FV3 and GFS runs is the phasing was later in the 6z run keeping the 850 low further to the south thus less WAA. Modes are flipping back and forth with the strength and timing of the phase which will be crucial. An earlier phase and we get an 850 low climbing west of the apps before transferring off the coast. A delayed one and you get a much colder scenario like the 6z GFS and FV3 are showing. Timing is everything.
 
Better run of the 6z GEFS too. The low track was a tick further south, but more importantly, further out to sea and weaker. Better high pressure and colder at the surface too. At this point, we shouldn't see the ensembles differ too much from the operational with regards to the first part of the storm.

Things are looking good this morning folks!
 
packfan98 said:
Better run of the 6z GEFS too. The low track was a tick further south, but more importantly, further out to sea and weaker. Better high pressure and colder at the surface too. At this point, we shouldn't see the ensembles differ too much from the operational with regards to the first part of the storm.

Things are looking good this morning folks!
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It did look good. Just need the 12z run to look like this.

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Shawn said:
I can tell you for the KCAE area, there were many members with frozen precipitation. A couple heavy ones, but I'd want to think it's mainly picking up with sleet mixing in and whatever back-end moisture is left.
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Even with a less than ideal negative trend, I still got 11 members IMBY
 
Webberweather53 said:
If there’s one glimmer of hope/silver lining even for those on the outside looking in (specifically NC and extreme upstate SC), the front end thumping of snow before IP/ZR changeover is often poorly modeled during overrunning and deep CAD and I’ve seen many cases where it’s considerably more intense and expansive than forecast (Feb 12-13 2014 is a classic example), this could lead to a few surprises perhaps for those living on the edge so to speak, including areas like RDU.
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It's what I'm holding on to

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Anybody looking at TWC app in my area would never know there is a potential storm. Sort of dangerous since that is what most people look at. However, for the past week or more there has been consistant hints in one fashion or another of wintery weather and now that we are this close.. NUTTIN! This one lady didnt even believe me bout potential "it's not on WC app so I doubt it"...
 
Something not yet mentioned yet but worth noting... oftentimes in solid CAD setups like this we will see a small scale meso-high that forms in Virginia as the CAD gets going. I’ve seen this happen a few times before and usually the only models that pick this feature up in advance are the high res models like NAM and RGEM. Something to watch for in future runs as we get in range of them. Perhaps @Webberweather53 has some research or additional info on these meso-highs and how they effect CAD?
 
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