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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Weatherlover92 said:
Interesting that they mention the WRF....

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
945 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018


.UPDATE...

Main adjustment this evening was to expand the Winter Storm Watch
farther west and south given growing concern for some freezing
rain accumulations in a strengthening wedge Saturday night into
Sunday. This was based on some higher resolution guidance
advecting the subfreezing low level temps/wetbulbs farther into
the area, including the local WRF which has resolved past wedges
quite well. There is still much uncertainty with temps, timing,
and amount of moisture but the fact that models which typically
perform better with the local terrain and smaller scale
microphysical processes are bringing in some freezing rain mainly
north of the I-20 corridor and impinging into the far northeast
Atlanta metro was justification enough to expand. Also even higher
snow totals could be realized in the NE mountains. The watch area
could be upgraded to either a Warning or Advisory in future
updates so please watch for any changes. Previous discussion
follows.

Baker

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Click to expand...

As I posted before today, I still think that ZR has a good chance to make it to ATL, itself, due to them having 850s under +5C for much of the precip. This is based on looking at 850s for storms with good wedging going back about 70 years. This could end up being a real doozy there.
 
GaWx said:
As I posted before today, I still think that ZR has a good chance to make it to ATL, itself, due to them having 850s under +5C for much of the precip. This is based on looking at 850s for storms with good wedging going back about 70 years. This could end up being a real doozy there.
Click to expand...

Agreed, I'm still watching on pins and needles to see how things unfold, 00z NAM was ridiculously close to ice here Sunday morning.
 
You know it’s a major bust when Mack is nowhere to be found. Still holding out hope for some severe t-storms :weenie:
 
The gfs is a solid snow sounding here until 15z with .75-.9 qpf having fallen. Taking out the first .1 to rain/mix and 7:1 ratios would be looking at a 4-6 inch type event I'd gladly take it

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For here total liquid:
GFS .2"
NAMs ~1-1.2"
RGEM ~1.5"
CMC 2"
FV3 1.2

If we end up with a dusting, don't retire the GFS
 
Last edited:
Forevertothee said:
That appears to have the best snow coverage south of 85 in the upstate to date, correct?
That’s a beautiful map!


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Yes. Euro/Ukie showed the snowline shifting south for a period of time as well. I guess it’s possible. Probable, no, but this is why we track
 
SD said:
Give it a break, seriously. You guys are more annoying mocking the guy than any of his posts.

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We are going to at least get ice down here I think if not even a shot at 2-4 inches of snow. IF this pattern can hang on all winter long all of us will be very happy I think. I really hope it's sleet instead of ZR if it can't be snow though. The .50 or more of ice WYFF weatherman John Cessarich thinks we may get here is kind of scary.
 
I don’t have time to read all of my PM’s but I can say after reviewing 0z that I’m still sticking with my storm chaser choice of Mount Rogers, VA that I selected several days ago. Solid 1 to 3 feet for the northern NC mountains, foothills and south-west Virginia. I know it’s unpopular but I still think central/southern hills/mtns in NC see the warm nose preventing widespread 12”+ totals. It’s likely isolated at best there. Also, still think Charlotte sees on average 3” with a few more inches in northern Meck. Again, same thing I forecasted days ago. No changes from me. Be safe everyone. It’s a now cast event from here on out.
 
JHS said:
We are going to at least get ice down here I think if not even a shot at 2-4 inches of snow. IF this pattern can hang on all winter long all of us will be very happy I think. I really hope it's sleet instead of ZR if it can't be snow though. The .50 or more of ice WYFF weatherman John Cessarich thinks we may get here is kind of scary.
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Yeah .5 of ice is a bad day. I don't think it's impossible someone on the southern edge of the wedge can push a zr total that high.

As for the pattern other than a few relaxation periods not much to change what we have as a whole

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B93E8F89-836B-444B-BD84-D66B2CC6F78B.png Clown GFSv3 that just ran! Hug it tightly! Looks like a 20”+ lollipop over mby! Prepare for glory!
 
I will wait for the WRF to run and then i'm done for the night. Stayed up for the Euro the past five nights, might still be awake for it but dont believe it is the model of choice this close.
 
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