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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

BIG FROSTY said:
JB tonight's thought!!

Just a note here to say I have not changed from the idea of a track inside Hatteras to the bench mark and if course that would also be a big city snow threat, This is likely to be a shut down storm for a few days in southern Va into western and central NC But when I look at this see this coming, And 24 horus later, I think the feedback fairy, who is well known, is playing with the model

More further back, I play this game all the time

But what of the euro so far south

we all remember its problems with the 2016 storm .. right up to the day before the storm,dont know it will get all the way back to this but it may be in between where it is now to the south and this or not!!!
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Might of nailed it.
 
Generally weather forecasting consists of more than comparing snowfall maps. MSLP shows hp further south and cooler temperatures. IMO not a horrible run. Definitely not a big shift north or even any shift north in terms of the system as a whole (which actually matters)
 
Yea, I did see the HP being stronger and further south and expected this to be at least as good as 12z if not better. So I was a bit surprised when all the frames seemed to be warmer and/or further north. Boone changed over to sleet/ice for an extended period of time so I'm pretty sure there was a north shift. I've been lurking on here for a couple days btw, just haven't really been commenting since there's already plenty of useful info. Personally I haven't had too much hope for north ATL area to see anything. As far as I remember it's always been a 33-degree rain here during most typical CAD events, and while this one does seem a bit atypical, chances appear slim right now...
 
bouncycorn said:
Generally weather forecasting consists of more than comparing snowfall maps. MSLP shows hp further south and cooler temperatures. IMO not a horrible run. Definitely not a big shift north or even any shift north in terms of the system as a whole (which actually matters)
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If it didnt shift northward then why is there so much more snow further north in southern IN and OH compared to the 12z Euro ?
 
hikingtheappalachians said:
Yea, I did see the HP being stronger and further south and expected this to be at least as good as 12z if not better. So I was a bit surprised when all the frames seemed to be warmer and/or further north. Boone changed over to sleet/ice for an extended period of time so I'm pretty sure there was a north shift. I've been lurking on here for a couple days btw, just haven't really been commenting since there's already plenty of useful info. Personally I haven't had too much hope for north ATL area to see anything. As far as I remember it's always been a 33-degree rain here during most typical CAD events, and while this one does seem a bit atypical, chances appear slim right now...
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Welcome to SouthernWx !
 
If there’s one glimmer of hope/silver lining even for those on the outside looking in (specifically NC and extreme upstate SC), the front end thumping of snow before IP/ZR changeover is often poorly modeled during overrunning and deep CAD and I’ve seen many cases where it’s considerably more intense and expansive than forecast (Feb 12-13 2014 is a classic example), this could lead to a few surprises perhaps for those living on the edge so to speak, including areas like RDU.
 
hikingtheappalachians said:
The way I read that tweet earlier was that the trough placement was causing more suppression (and a bit stronger high). And the high was stronger on this Euro run than the previous ones, yet it seemed much warmer for the main event (still good for the ULL though).
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The Euro was warmer for the main event due to superfluous details as bouncycorn alluded to, the large scale look in the model is still improving but I’m curious what it’s ensemble suite looks like
 
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