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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

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Hmmm


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Brick Tamland said:
And there you go, the NAM gets better. And matches up pretty much with the Euro and FV3.
Click to expand...
I don't care how many vertical levels the NAM has, if it isn't handling the setup properly what's the point in looking at its warm noses? Also, in the January NC snowstorm this year, the 24 hour Euro basically nailed the snow distribution and outperformed the NAM and the other high resolution guidance. I certainly would never lean towards the NAM anything (profiles or pattern) when it isn't in agreement synoptically with the Euro and EPS first.
 
NAM and CMC nailed the December storm last year, while the GFS and especially Euro whiffed like crazy. Every dog has his day!
 
Lol at what the NAM is doing with the secondary wave late Monday/early Tuesday. If it started just a little sooner, maybe it could lay down a little snow for me.
 
Looks a bit cleaner than the horrible TT map.



Kuchera:
2snku_acc.us_ma.png

10:1
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I'm really starting to think that when models show central NC flip to rain it's really more of a drizzle. I've seen countless times where you go from heavy snow to sleet and when the rates drop you get a light drizzle. That looks like the case this run. Once we lose the rates we lose frozen precip... in reality it could just be precip cuts off and lingers slightly as the low pulls away
Click to expand...
To follow up on this, I went on pivotal to get exact qpf amounts. From the time RDU switches over to plain rain on the Nam, about .1 additional qpf falls. This is next to nothing. For the entire storm RDU sees about 1.8" of frozen qpf
 
I don't think the Nam and 3km Nam was that bad for the trailing ULL. We will watch .Wish the sfc was colder tho . Main system plasters the Carolinas.
 
Interesting that they mention the WRF....

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
945 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018


.UPDATE...

Main adjustment this evening was to expand the Winter Storm Watch
farther west and south given growing concern for some freezing
rain accumulations in a strengthening wedge Saturday night into
Sunday. This was based on some higher resolution guidance
advecting the subfreezing low level temps/wetbulbs farther into
the area, including the local WRF which has resolved past wedges
quite well. There is still much uncertainty with temps, timing,
and amount of moisture but the fact that models which typically
perform better with the local terrain and smaller scale
microphysical processes are bringing in some freezing rain mainly
north of the I-20 corridor and impinging into the far northeast
Atlanta metro was justification enough to expand. Also even higher
snow totals could be realized in the NE mountains. The watch area
could be upgraded to either a Warning or Advisory in future
updates so please watch for any changes. Previous discussion
follows.

Baker

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
That gfs run looked like snow north of 85. From hr 30-42 probably sleet to of course but not a bad run
 
That’s a trend the right direction for us in upstate sc
 

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