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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

bud006 said:
FFC just put my county into the Winter Storm Watch. 1/4" of freezing rain + 30-40 mph winds (oh, and let's not forget the frog-strangling rain tomorrow) ... looks like it just might get interesting here after all.

Everybody, please stay safe, and thank you for all the outstanding information sharing this week.

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Just got the alert on my phone. Figured freezing rain was possible. Sucks it's not for snow instead.
 
GaStorm said:
Just got the alert on my phone. Figured freezing rain was possible. Sucks it's not for snow instead.
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Yeah, I would rather have cold rain than freezing rain, to be honest. Those winds are going to ramp up big-time tomorrow night and into Sunday. Wouldn't take a whole lot of ice accumulation for trees to start falling, especially with all the rain tomorrow softening up the ground.

My grid forecast has been updated. 1-2 inches of rain tomorrow night with a low "around" 32 and 30 mph winds. Might be an interesting drive home from the MLS Cup!

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Jessy89 said:
Can anyone post the euro
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metwannabe said:
If I get 3" this will be a huge victory... I'm not sold
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Agree 100%. The only way we are getting 5" out of this is if the snowfall is very heavy and the rain transition is delayed. 1-2" is much more likely. The following cold rain will wash most of it away quickly.

But, overall, I guess it's exciting to see snow potential this early.
 
I wonder why NWS RAH is so aggressive on totals all of the sudden. Two days ago they were calling for less than an inch when models showed a big hit. Now models are showing an earlier changeover to rain (between 10 am and 1 pm).
 
SD said:
Had some dental work today and was out for a good part of the afternoon and evening. Looks like I didn't miss much good stuff

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Hope you’re feeling better. Models are starting to come to reality with the southern and eastern portions of the snow maps. Hopefully, we will see some colder trends starting with the Nam here in a few. But given its love of all things warm, we may have to wait for the RGEM.
 
Guys, I just deleted about half of the posts on this page because they were banter. Please use the banter thread.
 
CyclonicFury said:
I wonder why NWS RAH is so aggressive on totals all of the sudden. Two days ago they were calling for less than an inch when models showed a big hit. Now models are showing an earlier changeover to rain (between 10 am and 1 pm).
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I got no problem with them not biting on what models were showing 4-5 days out. As far as today goes, they feel like the precip type over the Triangle and points north and west will be predominantly rate driven. And they expect heavy rates to persist for a while. They’re not thinking the warm nose will be all that warm and thus can be more easy to overcome with dynamic cooling.
 
Rain Cold said:
Hope you’re feeling better. Models are starting to come to reality with the southern and eastern portions of the snow maps. Hopefully, we will see some colder trends starting with the Nam here in a few. But given its love of all things warm, we may have to wait for the RGEM.
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Like this one?
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TWC has me at a low temp of 36 I think, it is already 38.7 according to my station. And it doesn't seem cloudy right now so I have no reason to believe that the temp will be lower than forecast.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
But that’s 10:1 ratio. Cut it by 50% to start. That also includes any sleet. So cut another 20% at least. So reality for the transition areas it’s abt 30% of what that shows.

So that’s abt 2-4 across Wake and that may be a bit generous.
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What is so bad about that?

But the majority of model runs have been consistent all day and not lowering totals around here anyway.
 
Well it will be interesting to watch unfold. I am a little torn as well about this storm, on one hand we have your typical “warm nose from hell” as well as the close proximity to the ice and snow line, which usually does not work out. On the other hand, it is quite unusual to see this degree of moisture and a tropical jet feed that will drive this storm, so it has an ingredient that can overperform. If I have learned anything over the years about weather it is that every storm is different and always expect the unexpected. But this is why I love weather!
 
Brick $10 bet over/under for your house on 4 inch. Snow. You taking over?
 
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