• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

There's really nothing to talk about currently until things start happening. We don't have a large mountain crowd like others, as this looks to be a very big deal around those parts.

NAM came in warm and kind of scared some off, SREF plumes are showing a mixed mess for places that are supposed to be predominantly snow.
 
Shawn said:
There's really nothing to talk about currently until things start happening. We don't have a large mountain crowd like others, as this looks to be a very big deal around those parts.

NAM came in warm and kind of scared some off, SREF plumes are showing a mixed mess for places that are supposed to be predominantly snow.
Click to expand...
Agreed but the GFS FV3 will Dave is all
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Just gonna drop this bad boy off here since pivotal isn't finished (although it is truly insane in the snow areas):

fv3p_asnow_eus_17.png


The FV3 is either the new DGEX or the kang.
Click to expand...
Boy that would be nice!
 
SC_Wildcat said:
Any hopes of 2 inches around dillon county in sc?
Click to expand...

You're close to the low's track, so WAA might ruin it on the front end. But, maybe the backend can surprise you. Upper level lows are hard to forecast, tbh.
 
Webberweather53 said:
A 50-60+ KT jet at 700 hPa coupled to large amounts of QPF often leads to the warm nose being stronger than forecast and the heavier precipitation rates can lead to the creation of an in-situ dome (superimposed onto the larger-scale CAD) that accelerates the end of the warm nose aloft in the downwind direction as considerable latent/sensible heating is deposited onto where the warm nose is strongest while cooling occurs below the level of maximum heating aloft. Another obvious caveat with the models is they don't have sufficient vertical resolution, the proper mixing schemes, and pretty crappy convective parameterization schemes to account for all of the above, thus leading to weaker warm noses than forecast (& often the low-level cold dome is weaker than reality in these same models).


This profile on the NAM while taken at face value (bad idea) is all snow near RDU, that's an absurd amount of mid-level veering and warm air advection above the CAD dome. Apart from all of the above, I've been burned many times the last several years figuring the models would have a good handle on this feature, and figured the warm nose wouldn't be that strong, it's usually a good idea to go a few degrees warmer near the height of the warm nose in situations like this and that favors less snow and more mixed phase precipitation in areas like Charlotte and Raleigh, this could end up being a respectable ice storm for someone in/around these areas.
The NWS GSP snow forecast of 5-11" here is likely way out to lunch (shocker) and assumes more of the precipitation will fall of snow here, the main precipitation type is liable to be sleet.

View attachment 8849
Click to expand...
Damn that’s a hella of a vector difference. Ouch!
 
Jessy89 said:
Why you say that
Click to expand...
You can see just by the angle of the snow map. It’s now oriented SW to NE instead of E-W as it has been all along. It’s correcting to other models and now showing the low too close to and creeping up the coast. Expect that to continue and totals on the south and east sides to diminish markedly.
 
Reminder: NAM overall handles thermal structures better. It could be wrong in regards to 500/850mb though, which would throw off a lot.
 
Rain Cold said:
You can see just by the angle of the snow map. It’s now oriented SW to NE instead of E-W as it has been all along. It’s correcting to other models and now showing the low too close to and creeping up the coast. Expect that to continue and totals on the south and east sides to diminish markedly.
Click to expand...
Well all the 18z models did that so it’s concerning. I think we know how this will end. 1-2” of front end is what I am hoping for.
 
Kylo said:
Well all the 18z models did that so it’s concerning. I think we know how this will end. 1-2” of front end is what I am hoping for.
Click to expand...
The northwest trend can virtually ALWAYS be counted on, absent a strong block.
 
Am getting worried about ice here north of clt, if the warm nose is strong enough, there will be zr and temps here will be between 27-30
 
Stormdoc said:
Thank you Rain Cold for keeping me so grounded and always reminding us how our backyards won’t be snowed on. Such a blessing.
Click to expand...
No problemo. But we can definitely get snow here. It just needs to be the right setup.
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeah like January when it’s colder.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah, one of the hallmarks I look for for a good snow here is a good supply of cold air. And a low track off the coast...not along it or over the sounds. Big red flags there.
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeah like January when it’s colder.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The fact that we are talking about a chance of measurable snow in early December is unusual. Only five times since reliable records began in 1945 has RDU seen at least three inches of snow in December, and only twice have we seen six inches.

I think this system may be a harbinger of a year with multiple winter weather threats with this cool, wet pattern due to El Niño.
 
I know it is instinct to hug the models that have the least winter precip but I wouldn't totally discount the FV3
 
CyclonicFury said:
The fact that we are talking about a chance of measurable snow in early December is unusual. Only five times since reliable records began in 1945 has RDU seen at least three inches of snow in December, and only twice have we seen six inches.

I think this system may be a harbinger of a year with multiple winter weather threats with this cool, wet pattern due to El Niño.
Click to expand...
Totally agree. Good post!
 
I’m right on the fringe of core snowfall and a big dud. History repeats itself. Me and Mack get a coating of sleet on the backend. Sh** man 10 days of tracking for what? For climo smfh
 
Last edited:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018


GAZ006-007-013-014-022>025-027-034>038-047-081200-
/O.EXA.KFFC.WS.A.0001.181209T0600Z-181210T0600Z/
Fannin-Gilmer-Pickens-Dawson-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-
Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Walton-
Including the cities of Blue Ridge, Cohutta Wilderness, Colwell,
Dial, Epworth, Hemp, Higdon, Black Gap Shelter, Cartecay,
Cherry Log, East Ellijay, Ellijay, Marion, Mountaintown, Blaine,
Hinton, Jasper, Lake Tamarack, Marblehill, Nelson, Sequoyah Lake,
Amicalola Falls State Park, Dawsonville, Dougherty, Fausett Lake,
Juno, Len Foote Hike Inn, Lumpkin, Brookwood, Chestatee,
Coal Mountain, Cumming, Drew, Ducktown, Hightower, Gainesville,
Alto, Banks Crossing, Five Points, Hollingsworth, Homer,
Pinefield Crossroads, Apple Valley, Arcade, Bear Creek Reservoir,
Braselton, Center, Commerce, Hoschton, Carlton, Colbert, Comer,
Danielsville, Diamond Hill, Harrison, Hull, Lawrenceville,
Auburn, Bethlehem, Carl, Chateau Elan, County Line,
Fort Yargo State Park, Russell, Athens, Barnett Shoals, Bishop,
Bogart, Eastville, Farmington, North High Shoals, Rose Hill,
Arnoldsville, Crawford, Dunlap, Hutchings, Lexington, Maxeys,
Philomath, Between, Bold Springs, Campton, Ebenezer, Good Hope,
Gratis, and Herndonville
743 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Possible freezing rain up to 1/4 inch in a zone east and
north of a line from Cumming to Norcross to Monroe to Lexington,
mainly north of the I-20 corridor. Higher amounts in this area
cannot be ruled out as well. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing
rain for the northeast mountains mainly north and east of a line
from Ellijay to Jasper to Dawsonville. Total snow accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches, with up to 5 inches possible on the highest
ridges and possible ice accumulations of up to 1/4 inch. Wind
gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected as well across the watch area.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia.

* WHEN...Saturday night through Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Hazardous driving conditions expected as
snow and ice accumulate, especially over bridges and overpasses.
Increasing winds Saturday night into Sunday would bring down ice coated
trees and powerlines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$
 
FFC just put my county into the Winter Storm Watch. 1/4" of freezing rain + 30-40 mph winds (oh, and let's not forget the frog-strangling rain tomorrow) ... looks like it just might get interesting here after all.

Everybody, please stay safe, and thank you for all the outstanding information sharing this week.

--30--
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top