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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm (1 Viewer)

Storm5

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Backside snow is a big NO. Too warm
The icon and gfs spit out some precip with the backside energy but anyone expecting anything other than snow showers or light rain is gonna be greatly disappointed .

Those wanting backside precip from the trailing energy should consider it a 100 percent win if they see anything falling from the sky


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deltadog03

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The one discernible trend that's occurring with the GFS in the short range when trends actually mean something instead of noise, is the s/w near the Baja is becoming much sharper and the downstream s/w ridge axis over Texas is bigger and the s/w in the upper midwest & Manitoba is slowing. If this continues translating forward in time, we'll end up w/ a more amped wave.
View attachment 8637
and that wouldn't be a very good thing at all...unless it slowed down a bit for more cold press...however, you're right...we don't need this to become a trend.
 

deltadog03

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The icon and gfs spit out some precip with the backside energy but anyone expecting anything other than snow showers or light rain is gonna be greatly disappointed .

Those wanting backside precip from the trailing energy should consider it a 100 percent win if they see anything falling from the sky


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I agree....anything under that upper low will be light at best for sure. Anyone who sees anything under that ULL and its flurries...call it a big win...
 
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I agree....anything under that upper low will be light at best for sure. Anyone who sees anything under that ULL and its flurries...call it a big win...
Though it’ll be interesting to see what the NAM has in mind for the ULL. Models seem to be struggling with it.


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I agree....anything under that upper low will be light at best for sure. Anyone who sees anything under that ULL and its flurries...call it a big win...
Pretty much all I’m expecting if the ULL maximizes it’s potential. In no way would I expect another 3/1/09 or anything like that but to get snow showers in November and December is a huge win.
 
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This is just epic....going from feet to sleet to rain for most. Hang on to whichever model gives you hope, but at the end, this is going to be a meltdown like we haven't seen in a while. Perfect example of why the NWS offices are conservative....it usually pays off.
You act like it's over already. And if you look at it like that, then really no need to come here, just read what your NWS office says.
 

J.C.

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It is interesting to me that both the globals have a good bit of moisture hanging around the back end and the CMC specifically has temps in the mid 30s in northern Georgia with 850s below freezing showing rain. Its something to pay attention to I guess.
 

scroback

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This is just epic....going from feet to sleet to rain for most. Hang on to whichever model gives you hope, but at the end, this is going to be a meltdown like we haven't seen in a while. Perfect example of why the NWS offices are conservative....it usually pays off.
I was joking about this yesterday...this has been going on for years
"Wow global models looks great and they are trending better"
*nam comes in warm*
"It's the NAM, it's probably not right"
*hrrr comes in even warmer than NAM*
"Eh, the hrrr doesn't handle winter weather or CAD well"
*rains all night*
 
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In this case, trends are not your friends if you want snow. Perhaps RAH will be right after all? Still need the NAM 3K to be a little closer in time to be sure
 

ForsythSnow

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This is just epic....going from feet to sleet to rain for most. Hang on to whichever model gives you hope, but at the end, this is going to be a meltdown like we haven't seen in a while. Perfect example of why the NWS offices are conservative....it usually pays off.
FFC is not being very conservative in terms of forecasting. I mean where is the support for this?
 

metwannabe

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I was joking about this yesterday...this has been going on for years
"Wow global models looks great and they are trending better"
*nam comes in warm*
"It's the NAM, it's probably not right"
*hrrr comes in even warmer than NAM*
"Eh, the hrrr doesn't handle winter weather or CAD well"
*rains all night*
And you started out so good.... (slowly backs away from the ban button). ;)
 

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