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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
I don’t care how many books he signed! He’s an idiot! 0 models show this storm hitting NY or Boston
Avalanche
Member
DP in the teens hard to argue with that!!!
Avalanche
Member
Wonder who will win out in the HP strength department NAM or GFS........Would love that 1041 from the NAM
Jessy89
Member
Does the nam give upstate snow?
Nomanslandva
Member
Not saying it is right but CMC. Only a slight adjustment NW.
It's not in range yet.
Think the GFSv3 has a 1040 at 18z!?
Interesting NAM has dew points lower in RDU then in western piedmont of NC. Will need to see if damming May be a little better further east with this storm given its west to east orientation and wind direction
Kylo
Member
This does remind me of Jan 2017 with the globals printing out such big snow totals with marginal temps. Went back and looked at some old threads on AmWx and came across this post mortem a poster write up. This was the 2nd biggest bust I have ever experienced in Raleigh, right behind Dec 2000.
—-snippet—
1. We have to not only interpret the models, but be able to predict where they are going. In the medium range, we have to identify what a SE snowstorm looks like. If you recall, WPC had that extended range discussion where they gave the storm 2 options...1) NS would phase in and the storm would produce a lot of precip, but pull north of our region...or 2) there would be no phase and it would be a suppressed, weak storm with light precip, and WPC was favoring option 2. Many on here correctly stated that option 2 is what SE snowstorms look like in the medium range even though WPC was downplaying it. In the short range, we have to identify that even though models are coming to a consensus, the consensus is still likely to shift, most of the time climbing north.
2. The best medium range look for a SE snowstorm is when the ensemble means have a cold storm that is tracking to our south. If you go back to the discussion as early as Jan 1-2, the ensemble means where barking a southern snowstorm even though the individual members were throwing out a wide variety of options.
3. Long track 500mb waves will stay stronger, longer than models show as they trek across the country (this is an old tidbit from WxSouth-Robert). The models slowly came around to it over time as we got closer to the storm date.
4. Forecasters need to do a better job of identifying/forecasting the location of the transition zone, and forecasted snow/sleet amounts need to be very conservative along this zone. Model snow maps are probably making us lazy, and worse, at forecasting snowfall. We are somewhat hypnotized by snow maps.
5. I used to think that when I heard meteorologists say “QPF is one of the least accurate fields in numerical weather prediction” that meteorologists where kind of saying that to justify their jobs/existence….but more and more, I’ve learned that you need to look at other aspects of storm systems to recognize what they mean for the final outcome. For this one, the upper level jet structure supported the idea of more precip blossoming back to the west across W NC. The 850mb frontogenesis supported the idea of enhanced bands of snow and dendrite production over parts of the NC Foothills and W Piedmont.
6. The saying, “You’re going to need to be able to smell the rain to get the heaviest snow” is a reasonable saying climo-wise for the central and northern mountains…but east of the mountains, it’s not a good saying as the heaviest snow is almost always a good bit NW of the transition line.
7. I will say that I have much more respect for the short term, hi resolution models in terms of their thermal forecasts. Philippe Papin dropped some good knowledge on this topic in the discussion thread indicating that the global models (GFS/Euro) simply can’t handle the thermal setup to the degree and detail as the hi resolution models.
8. Regarding balloon launches, I envision a day in the future when we will be able to obtain a snapshot of the upper levels at the flip of a switch.
9. I learned that the state of NC never wants to see Jim Cantore show up again in winter. His list of fails: Dec 2000 (Charlotte – one of the biggest busts of all time, even worse bust in Raleigh), Mar 2010 (Charlotte – meager storm), Jan 2017 (Raleigh – one of the bigger busts of all time)
10. Facebook, Twitter, Blogs, whatever, there is no doubt in my mind that weather forums are the best places to follow/track/discuss winter storms. Two of my wishes 40 years from now are: 1) That the climate in the SE still allows for winter storms, and 2) That weather boards are still around to discuss them.
11. Kudos to:
‘Cold Rain’ and others for banging the drum for temperature concerns along the GSP to CLT to RDU corridor
—-snippet—
1. We have to not only interpret the models, but be able to predict where they are going. In the medium range, we have to identify what a SE snowstorm looks like. If you recall, WPC had that extended range discussion where they gave the storm 2 options...1) NS would phase in and the storm would produce a lot of precip, but pull north of our region...or 2) there would be no phase and it would be a suppressed, weak storm with light precip, and WPC was favoring option 2. Many on here correctly stated that option 2 is what SE snowstorms look like in the medium range even though WPC was downplaying it. In the short range, we have to identify that even though models are coming to a consensus, the consensus is still likely to shift, most of the time climbing north.
2. The best medium range look for a SE snowstorm is when the ensemble means have a cold storm that is tracking to our south. If you go back to the discussion as early as Jan 1-2, the ensemble means where barking a southern snowstorm even though the individual members were throwing out a wide variety of options.
3. Long track 500mb waves will stay stronger, longer than models show as they trek across the country (this is an old tidbit from WxSouth-Robert). The models slowly came around to it over time as we got closer to the storm date.
4. Forecasters need to do a better job of identifying/forecasting the location of the transition zone, and forecasted snow/sleet amounts need to be very conservative along this zone. Model snow maps are probably making us lazy, and worse, at forecasting snowfall. We are somewhat hypnotized by snow maps.
5. I used to think that when I heard meteorologists say “QPF is one of the least accurate fields in numerical weather prediction” that meteorologists where kind of saying that to justify their jobs/existence….but more and more, I’ve learned that you need to look at other aspects of storm systems to recognize what they mean for the final outcome. For this one, the upper level jet structure supported the idea of more precip blossoming back to the west across W NC. The 850mb frontogenesis supported the idea of enhanced bands of snow and dendrite production over parts of the NC Foothills and W Piedmont.
6. The saying, “You’re going to need to be able to smell the rain to get the heaviest snow” is a reasonable saying climo-wise for the central and northern mountains…but east of the mountains, it’s not a good saying as the heaviest snow is almost always a good bit NW of the transition line.
7. I will say that I have much more respect for the short term, hi resolution models in terms of their thermal forecasts. Philippe Papin dropped some good knowledge on this topic in the discussion thread indicating that the global models (GFS/Euro) simply can’t handle the thermal setup to the degree and detail as the hi resolution models.
8. Regarding balloon launches, I envision a day in the future when we will be able to obtain a snapshot of the upper levels at the flip of a switch.
9. I learned that the state of NC never wants to see Jim Cantore show up again in winter. His list of fails: Dec 2000 (Charlotte – one of the biggest busts of all time, even worse bust in Raleigh), Mar 2010 (Charlotte – meager storm), Jan 2017 (Raleigh – one of the bigger busts of all time)
10. Facebook, Twitter, Blogs, whatever, there is no doubt in my mind that weather forums are the best places to follow/track/discuss winter storms. Two of my wishes 40 years from now are: 1) That the climate in the SE still allows for winter storms, and 2) That weather boards are still around to discuss them.
11. Kudos to:
‘Cold Rain’ and others for banging the drum for temperature concerns along the GSP to CLT to RDU corridor
Storm5
Member
Inside Hatteras ???? What a weenie !!! I mean at what point does he put aside his wishes and look at reality ?
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0z NAM vs 18z GFS .spot the BIG difference?? 
Going to go ahead and say it. Storm of the century totals will be rivalved and smashed for many locations in WNC. This one will be the new benchmark of all time esp west of i77.
KK going with 1-2” Greenville area, no road issues at all!
RollTide18
Member
At what point will we begin to see the ULL on the NAM?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
If the models show these type of numbers on Friday, then I would say yes. We have been burned too many times to put this one in the books this far out.
I agree. This is going to rival the Storm of the Century (1993) in many areas.
No snow for you
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I know several people who work at the station and she will always be very conservative. Surprising they tell me she is ranked second best in the area in accuracy
drfranklin
Member
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did she mention I-85?