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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
I’ve seen snow at 41 degrees , you missed my point . The point is the moisture is gonna be scattered in nature and temps are very warm.

I think expectations are unrealistic because we are jealous of the Carolinas

I guess IF we see anything falls we should count it as a win


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I agree, like I said, I'm not expecting some surprise snow event or anything but scattered convective snow showers is a slight possibility and that would be a win if it materialized.
 
Storm5 said:
The RGEM is hands down my favorite short range model


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It is mine today:) Seriously, I know it is a good one. I am baffled at the difference between the 12 and 3k NAM up here. I have stepped back from the edge.
 
GFS has a lot of credit in handling moisture eroding on the northern edge. Seen this model handle it really well in past for areas like Boone, Jefferson, Wilkes/Surry. I think further south trends continue.
 
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_48.png
So is this ULL intensifying with this short range model?
 
The difference between the mesoscale models and globals with the 850 low track is certainly interesting. The Euro and FV3 both take it through northern Louisiana while the RGEM and 3km NAM want to take it into northern Mississippi and Alabama, likely the reason they are so much warmer still than globals. Sometimes the RGEM and 3km NAM can have a north/amped bias at the edge of their forecast range so this will be something to watch. If you like snow and ice you want a look like this below to show up soon on the meso models.
fv3p_z850_vort_us_7.png
 
Well here’s to all my western NC, and NW SC folks. This one is y’alls. Maybe the next one will slide more south, and favor central and southern SC.
 
I'd expect precip to be a little more expansive north, SW flow aloft over top the CAD dome.....3k picking up on that better
Nomanslandva said:
It is mine today:) Seriously, I know it is a good one. I am baffled at the difference between the 12 and 3k NAM up here. I have stepped back from the edge.
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A met by the name of Snowgoose69on Amerwx had this to say for my ATL folks:

I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z(NAM) verified as shown (which it likely won't). There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across. Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected. I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX.
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Last minute north trends commencing in all future runs. I think Sparta NC will be max. Watch out south-west VA too.
 
I think models is under doing the strength of wedge because outside today it’s really chilly and lower dewpoints today than what was forecasted. Gfs is doing a horrible job with wedge but the Fv3 is doing much better.
 
Most of the changes we see at this stage will be within the range of model "noise" and variability from run to run. In order to detect any significant trends you'd want to look at a series of 3-4 runs to see if there is a consistent shift north/south with features. One model run from one model is definitely not a trend. As we get into the reliable range of the meso models this afternoon they will imo be the models of choice to watch closely, especially the 3km NAM and RGEM combo which is tough to beat.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I think models is under doing the strength of wedge because outside today it’s really chilly and lower dewpoints today than what was forecasted. Gfs is doing a horrible job with wedge but the Fv3 is doing much better.
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Being that we live in the south, most of the time we get last minute north trend before the event. Not saying it will happen, but very possible that the north trend will continue as most models have it. Also we do have the short range models south, so who knows
 
Upstate and NC an additional few inches out of the trailing ULL. This storm is going into Tues for those areas. Just crazy long duration of winter weather

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Precip shield was a smidge north but other features about the same to be honest .and I think GFS is still having thermal issues.
 
About 2 days away from snow hitting the ground in our northern zones. I don’t think last minute climo trends are noise when you walk a fine line given the critical thermal profile for nearly everyone.
 
I would say still seeing positive trends and looks from the models for the people who will see frozen and or freezing precip .very cold rain .here, but it's all good. At least it's not 75 to 80 degrees .
 
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