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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Here is a snippet from Tulsa to kind of give an idea of what's going on:

DISCUSSION...
As usual, a nice straightforward winter weather forecast. 00z
model data has continues the overall trend of a more southerly
track of the closed upper low just off the southern California
coast this morning. The main implication of this will be focusing
the heaviest precipitation more across southeast OK where
temperatures will remain warm enough for all rain through most of
the event. The low is forecast to become more of an open wave as
it tracks across northern Mexico, eventually then developing back
into a closed system as it ejects into the southern states. As
this happens, a TROWAL structure will set up with a more prolonged
period of stronger forcing extending back into northwest AR by
late Saturday. The airmass by that time should be cold enough by
then to support snow and this will be the area with the best
opportunity of seeing significant accumulating snow. Thus will
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for much of northwest AR from 06z
tonight, with some light icing potential tonight, through Saturday
night.

Winter weather potential is much less certain across eastern OK
due to the southern track and marginal temperature profile through
Saturday morning. While some potential remains for a swath of
light snow or sleet accumulation along northern edge of precip
shield, our thinking is now that accumulations will be less than
an inch for the most part, and that sfc temps will likely hover
right at or slightly above freezing and that any travel issues
will be limited. The Winter Storm Watch has been canceled, but a
short-fused advisory could still be needed at a later time.
Click to expand...
 
part of Upstate SC under a WSWatch; Asheville metro and parts of Western NC under a WSWarning:
gsp.png
 
I had a feeling things would trend a little colder. This is going to be one hell of a storm to watch.

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For you guy's sanity around parts of Upstate & NC, don't look at the SREF plumes and ptype % chances. All over the place with mixed bags.. including rain.

I looked into it because the NCEP ptype algorithm was showing a lot of rain outside the mountains/western NC.
 
What is this??? Is this rain already coming?? Im not prepared...needed to get up dry wood and barnyard preps...
 

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We already have the finger of precip streaming into N. GA several hours ahead of forecast.

EDIT: Although the 6z NAM/RGEM are pretty close to what is happening right now.
 
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My hope not a prediction. Just what I hope happens and it seems realistic. If everything comes together I’m hoping for 5-8 inches in upstate sc. Oconee Pickens Greenville Spartanburg counties
 
12z Model suites today might be very telling, interesting anyway will be curious to see if the South trend continues. I'm not at all worried about suppression but having it suppressed about 48 hours before go time is perfect IMO

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Here's to the SW trend let's get AL/GA some action haha.... truthfully though if this setup occured in late Jan. with right climo it would be the board wide hit we all dreamed off with all the qpf and moisture. I was so spoiled last year in December now it hurts to basically be cheering for the backside snow chances
 
Many people in OK is about to get whiffed with maybe a flurry, wow this thing has really gone south
 
metwannabe said:
12z Model suites today might be very telling, interesting anyway will be curious to see if the South trend continues. I'm not at all worried about suppression but having it suppressed about 48 hours before go time is perfect IMO

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Click to expand...
Very telling for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if it get suppressed a little more as well. Mainly because the H5 energy looks a little more sheared out. IMHO thats a great thing
 
deltadog03 said:
Very telling for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if it get suppressed a little more as well. Mainly because the H5 energy looks a little more sheared out. IMHO thats a great thing
Click to expand...
Yeah this thing is going to end up colder than modeled IMO

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WCLumpkin said:
35° with 30° dew point and light sprinkles in Dahlonega, GA right now. The band on radar is not all virga.
Click to expand...

Yep it’s definitely not virga...very light returns overhead here in Lithia Springs and it’s reaching the ground as very light rain. 36.


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