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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

What were the earliest predictions for rainfall in areas of GA that are seeing it?
I feel like the "finger" is way ahead of schedule, although it shouldn't matter much at this very moment.

I saw on some of the forecasts that there was a 20% chance today.
 
I put it in the obs thread, but I have had sleet here mixed with light rain since at least 7am. Still coming down.
 
Shawn said:
What were the earliest predictions for rainfall in areas of GA that are seeing it?
I feel like the "finger" is way ahead of schedule, although it shouldn't matter much at this very moment.

I saw on some of the forecasts that there was a 20% chance today.
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Our forecast was no rain until evening as of last night even though one model on 11 Alive showed this precip coming in but the others didn't so he said it'd be dry most likely. My current NWS shows Rain after 1PM now though as opposed to Cloudy for today as of last night. I expect this will keep us from reaching 48 today as forecast but who knows. So, they already have missed this mornings light rain but doubt it means anything of significance honestly.
 
Living on the sounds of NC is just like SC....Everyone to your west and north gets snow and you get simple rain. Although, if that finger thump of snow gets in and this moves farther off the coast that will benefit mountains to coast and down into SC.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What a nightmare this is going to be for forecasters. Especially for those just south of 85. Looks to be setting up for a shellacking for all. This one just has that feeling to it
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Go back to sleep! It was all a dream, and your still getting cold rain
 
Fountainguy97 said:
The 06z euro is way improved!

Doubles snow for many eastern areas like Wake.
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The big question for me -- who has been asked to prepare a snow map for the state of NC this morning -- is how much more adjusting are we going to see based on the weaker, further south shortwave trend. Euro/FV3 have consistently been shaving off the northern edge and concurrently increasing totals further east as the mid-level low and associated WAA remain less amplified. Have to believe the 12z NAM will follow and should be an interesting run for it.
 
1300m said:
The big question for me -- who has been asked to prepare a snow map for the state of NC this morning -- is how much more adjusting are we going to see based on the weaker, further south shortwave trend. Euro/FV3 have consistently been shaving off the northern edge and concurrently increasing totals further east as the mid-level low and associated WAA remain less amplified. Have to believe the 12z NAM will follow and should be an interesting run for it.
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We will see and know a lot at 12z

But here is the nam trend from last night so it is moving still while globals are not coming north.
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1300m said:
The big question for me -- who has been asked to prepare a snow map for the state of NC this morning -- is how much more adjusting are we going to see based on the weaker, further south shortwave trend. Euro/FV3 have consistently been shaving off the northern edge and concurrently increasing totals further east as the mid-level low and associated WAA remain less amplified. Have to believe the 12z NAM will follow and should be an interesting run for it.
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Does a more South track guarantee colder air for those who get precip? It it suppression or just Southern trend?
 
Tarheel and Jimmy - where are you on this map:
47495094_1886873261410022_4297953307588034560_o.jpg
 
1300m said:
The big question for me -- who has been asked to prepare a snow map for the state of NC this morning -- is how much more adjusting are we going to see based on the weaker, further south shortwave trend. Euro/FV3 have consistently been shaving off the northern edge and concurrently increasing totals further east as the mid-level low and associated WAA remain less amplified. Have to believe the 12z NAM will follow and should be an interesting run for it.
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You know this already, but trust your knowledge and gut .still not easy at all .My honest thoughts are this still has some room south. Mainly for the reasons you mentioned above .
 
deltadog03 said:
You know this already, but trust your knowledge and gut .still not easy at all .My honest thoughts are this still has some room south. Mainly for the reasons you mentioned above .
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If you look strictly at models there is a lot of credit toward the colder more suppressed runs. My post on the last page shows just how north the nam was in the West while fv3 was basically spot on.

So that says to discredit nam some. It also made a decent shift south 00 to 06.

That’s solely relying on models though. That’s risky in itself.
 
The ULL looks interesting for nc on the gfs, has a 2014 lookish to it, above the broad but weak warm nose(still below 0°c) there are some very steep lapse rates
 
Tarheel1 said:
Does a more South track guarantee colder air for those who get precip? It it suppression or just Southern trend?
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It can't hurt! It will cut down totals on the northern edge, but will also reduce WAA at the same time, so a good thing for those further south. It seems like the southern trend is a subtle bit of two things - the shortwave itself appears to be ticking south and not interacting with the northern stream quite as quickly early on AND a piece of northern stream energy is also trending further south helping hold the southeastern Canada vortex further south a tad longer each run.

fv3p_z500_vort_namer_fh60_trend.gif
 
1300m said:
It can't hurt! It will cut down totals on the northern edge, but will also reduce WAA at the same time, so a good thing for those further south. It seems like the southern trend is a subtle bit of two things - the shortwave itself appears to be ticking south and not interacting with the northern stream quite as quickly early on AND a piece of northern stream energy is also trending further south helping hold the southeastern Canada vortex further south a tad longer each run.

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Agreed! That's why I also think the euro (which is further west and SW with the backside ULL) has a better handle on it vs progressive GFS suite .
 
And that would allow for a longer duration of snow in nc if the wave continues to have that look
 
@tarheel who’s bathtub do I need to slosh in to get that 06z Euro snow map to verify? damn
 
nam looks like the snow line will be a bit south again, snow line right over clt and points west towards the upstate at hr 27
 
theblendybabe said:
I’m stalking but I’m in Easley, do you really think it’ll pan out?
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I’m pretty sure TR gets 10” of snow/sleet mix. Down our way, Easley , Simpsonville , 2-4” of mostly sleet, would be great and about the highest we should hope for
 
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