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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

BirdManDoomW said:
Can we keep Brad’s silly conservative stuff off here? Anyone could have viewed that at the WPC for the past few days. At this range he is not going to post anything meaningful to add to a higher discussion. It would confuse the public .
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He’s actually being more aggressive than normal. That alone should be an eye opener
DadOfJax said:
Thoughts on Gatlinburg/Cosby TN areas? Thinking about taking the kiddos....
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I’ll be in Gatlinburg. Planned it a month ago. They are on the west side of the mtns. Mostly rain will fall until probably Sunday afternoon evening
 
Kylo said:
18z EPS ticked north versus 12z run. It was north yesterday at 18z. Probably would be easier if we didn’t have the 6z/18z.
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Oh it’s only a matter of time before the south trend stops and north trend begins...


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BirdManDoomW said:
Yes! Do not take them somewhere dangerous and where it will likely be against the law for non-emergency vehicles to drive (western NC). East TN should be better for travel and offer snow in favored areas for kids.
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I’d say it wouldn’t be snow in Gatlinburg til Sunday evening. But you wouldn’t have to drive far to see snow.
 
Yeah not normal for him to be this aggressive, I think that jan storm after he only called for 2-3 in some areas and ended up with 6-8 changed his approach a bit
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why is that? The model runs look great to me.
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This setup has all the things that generally cause us to fail. Loss of a good dry cold air source, waiting on the cold dry air to build in, monster warm nose aloft, marginal air mass in place. Don't get me wrong, I think we would have to see a colossal failure to not see snow sunday morning. I do enough think expecting more than advisory criteria snow is getting you hopes too high.

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SD said:
This setup has all the things that generally cause us to fail. Loss of a good dry cold air source, waiting on the cold dry air to build in, monster warm nose aloft, marginal air mass in place. Don't get me wrong, I think we would have to see a colossal failure to not see snow sunday morning. I do enough think expecting more than advisory criteria snow is getting you hopes too high.

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Not enthused. Think we see sleet/snow but to difficult to imagine it not being washed away fairly quickly.
 
Good luck with that trying to get ice with 3” of qpf and temps hovering just below the freezing mark. Unless widespread areas trend to 26 or colder this will never be remembered for ZR.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Good luck with that trying to get ice with 3” of qpf and temps hovering just below the freezing mark. Unless widespread areas trend to 26 or colder this will never be remembered for ZR.
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Nope this mainly going to be Sleet and snow in the forecast areas, and Rain elsewhere

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SoutheastRidge said:
I thought we were 4 days out. Isnt the event starting on Sat night?
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Well ull is in south TX day 4 but then after that things get complicated with NS energy diving down, when does it phase. Does 50/50 lift out a little quicker, does it press a little more. HP strength...how fast does it weaken.
 
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