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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
Inch snow probabilities from the 12z euro
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How about greater that 3 inches of snow
 
Maybe I just have a bad memory but I don't remember there being this much hype with last December's snowstorm
 
Storm5 said:
If you don’t get over 6 inches I’m shutting the board down cause the complaining would be unreal


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Does sleet count? 3:1 ratios, 3” QPF, compaction, = 6”
:)
 
Storm5 said:
If you don’t get over 6 inches I’m shutting the board down cause the complaining would be unreal


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everything started trending in my favor once I booked a hotel in Banner Elk at 18z yesterday. It was a textbook model diversion technique on my part
 
Some thoughts about the 12z model runs today
1st look at the NAM....looks good at the very end. (In fact, its the 1st model to show the CAD building in very nicely before any precipitation gets to us on the SE). I like the lowering of the TD on that end of the run.
GFS: GFS continues to show a solution in where the 850mb temps and the 2m temps are slowly lowering. I feel like the initial/main (maybe only low) was too far inland this run. But...that will change on the 18z runs. I did like how the upper low/energy actually trended better for places like TN, AL and GA. **That is our ticket to see anything wintry** (outside CAD areas in GA). I think the GFS will be the LAST model to catch on with temps as they are likely too warm in the CAD areas, and also with the ULL.
EURO: I thought the best improvements were with the DOC today.....The 850mb low trended south, the SFC low trended south, and the upper energy behind the main system looked much better as well. In fact, from what I can tell, the euro is actually the colder of the globals across most of the SE. I look forward to continued "trends" (hope a bit colder and further south) but trends none the less over the next few days.

All in all I think we got some good looks today, but the next 48 hours will be SUPER telling once we have sampled some of this energy in our RAOB network. Either way, a big storm for the entire SE this weekend for sure. Many will get rain, maybe some thunder, and many will get a wintry mess for sure.
 
CyclonicFury said:
December 11 is my birthday. I live in Raleigh and I have never seen it snow on my birthday in my life. I hope that changes this year, and according to the Euro it could!
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You can find a little solace in the fact that your birthday still boasts the biggest winter storm in December over the Triangle.
December 11-12 1958 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The strength of this CAD dome on the Euro & Fv3 is nearly on par with some of the truly legendary cold air dams in both modern times and other ones I've looked at in the early-mid 20th century (using ERA-20C) around here in the Carolinas.

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If the Triangle can't get more than 3" of slop with that look and a southern slider then I honestly don't know how we will ever be able to score a decent snowfall again.:rolleyes:
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS thru 144 HR w/ a closer look at the Carolinas. Wintry precip starting to creep down towards the I-20 corridor in SC & GA.
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My dude Eric is the only one to ever give a shout out to I 20, thanks for the bit of hope. It's appreciated.
 
A area outside the mountains that looks good for snow could be the triad
 
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