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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Doesn't the UKMET usually indicate how the Euro will go?
 
NoSnowATL said:
My apologies, was just trying to kill time between runs.
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I get it and honestly again it's not a huge deal but unfortunately it usually just snowballs and next thing you know it's like people just carrying on a conversation in here, and thanks.
 
snowlover91 said:
Verbatim the FV3 starts this off in RDU as heavy snow at hour 66.
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Not quite, DGZ is very dry. Probably mostly sleet.
 
Kylo said:
UK and GEFS shifted N/W some.

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Looks way further into GA than last run. It sounds crazy but last nights NAM could be very accurate with this storm when it’s all done. We’re ridinng from run to run and everything is all over the place North South East West this storm has shifted all over the place on these models with no consistency so honestly we may not know what happens until it happens. If u have had something from one of the model runs then u are in the game because of the inconsistency so far. My opinion
 
Yellow Snow said:
If FFC is on to something, it looks like the adjacent NWS offices aren't seeing it yet...
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So according to that map, the light and dark purple are both ice. Does the darker shaded purple indicate heavier freezing rain ? I guess according to this map West GA is going to see some heavy freezing rain.
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree....anything under that upper low will be light at best for sure. Anyone who sees anything under that ULL and its flurries...call it a big win...
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At least the surface low is lower :) Get it into Fla, and us away from the heat, and the cad could do it's work better. Still time to adjust for more of Ga than Clayton Co.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah basically the way Tidbits determines what p-type is falling is pretty flawed and doesn't look at the entire column. So if an area is 33-34 at the surface and 850s are fairly close to 0C but above it it will show that as "snow" on the accumulation map even though it would be rain or at best sleet falling.
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Arcc said:
Not quite, DGZ is very dry. Probably mostly sleet.
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Not to mention, all it's gonna take is a thin warm nose (maybe even between model levels, so not depicted here) and boom, sleet
 
They particularly state IP in that Georgia Graph so I assume they expect due to temps majority of Mix will be in the form of Sleet
 
If anything, this thing has trended to a tighter gradient trying to set up along 85. I need it to wiggle that line a tick south which it will do every now and again especially with a cold wedge in place
 
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