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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
NorthGaWinter4
Member
At what point do we give it credit and it may be sniffing out the Cad. Also I know NEGa Won’t be snow
Garbage clown map
SimeonNC
Member
snowlover91
Member
Tidbits maps are designed to read the lowest and highest pressure within the grid that is viewed. With a regional view like I showed it pulled the lowest pressure in that grid in SE Tennessee but the actual low pressure is down in the Georgia area. It has been consistent with that track.
This has been the weenie map of the storm. Would be nice to know what this is based on.
Garbage clown map
I live in Salisbury
There's been a Jim Cantore sighting. He is currently on I-40 West near Hickory headed to Asheville !
snowlover91
Member
As has been covered for days, the Tidbits algorithim is quite flawed and doesn't match up with what the FV3 is actually depicting as snow. Honestly until this issue is fixed, the FV3 maps shouldn't even be posted (in my opinion) because they are so misleading and not representative of what the model is actually showing...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
FV3 singing some Tom Petty, I won't back down.
Gefs went down considerably
snowlover91
Member
Verbatim the FV3 starts this off in RDU as heavy snow at hour 66.
Jessy89
Member
Can someone post it
Fountainguy97
Member
Here is the fv3 trend since 18z yesterday. Quite noticeable north trend in LP. That and small weakening of HP is likely the culprit for the warmer temps.
12z is abt the same as 06z was for temps but the north trend continues
12z is abt the same as 06z was for temps but the north trend continues
“I still get 20.”
Garbage clown map
I think it takes everyone’s cold rain and converts it into 20:1 ratio snow
Ok. I do remember reading something on it and seems like the issue was possibly wrong temp estimates?
Glad I cashed out with the FV3 run last night. This one is gone. NW trend is real. Hopefully, the mountains and foothills still get a nice front end thump.
snowlover91
Member
Yeah basically the way Tidbits determines what p-type is falling is pretty flawed and doesn't look at the entire column. So if an area is 33-34 at the surface and 850s are fairly close to 0C but above it it will show that as "snow" on the accumulation map even though it would be rain or at best sleet falling.
Jessy89
Member
I hope Hendersonville N.C. has some snow on the ground mid morning Sunday. That’s when I’ll take my kiddos to play
Glad I cashed out with the 12z Euro run last Sunday. Patiently awaiting my 30”
No snow for you
Member
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I'm going back to my day job of setting the market lines and trolling Trix. Glad my office will be open Monday. Winter canceled.
snowlover91
Member
Here's an FV3 map through hour 78 that appears to better pickup on the areas that see snow. Not bad. It's one of the colder models but may be too cold too, we will need to see how well it actually verifies.
WXinCanton
Member
I was banned for using the term meat flaps lol. Otherwise I would be right there with you.
Yellow Snow
Member
They've updated mby in Athens also. This morning FFC had us at 90% rain/snow on Sunday; now it's 100% wintry mix on Sunday.
NoSnowATL
Member
Atlanta NWS still have rain / Snow all the way to the Alabama line, it’s on there twitter page. Crazy. All snow Sunday night into Monday.
Gonna need those temps to go down.They've updated mby in Athens also. This morning FFC had mby at 90% rain/snow on Sunday; now it's 100% wintry mix on Sunday.
NoSnowATL
Member
You bet me to it.
snowlover91
Member
Here's a great view of the 925mb temps on the FV3 GFS. You can see the CAD quite clearly, I'm thinking a lot of areas would go to sleet instead of rain/zr in the CAD areas if this is accurate.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Not to be rude but Hooterville is projected to have a foot plus on the ground and mid morning Sunday is the height of the storm. Are seriously going to try and drive up the mountain then? Or are you staying up there?
Man they are almost as bad as ATL tv mets. Are there any reputable mets in the entire state of GA?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Here's an FV3 map through hour 78 that appears to better pickup on the areas that see snow. Not bad. It's one of the colder models but may be too cold too, we will need to see how well it actually verifies.
Is that the Kuchera map?
snowlover91
Member
No it's just based off the standard 10:1 ratios so I would cut those totals in half to account for various factors like mixing and lower ratios but it matches up better with soundings from what I've seen. I haven't been able to find a Kuchera map for the FV3 but there may be some out there on paid sites.
I get lollipop’d with 18”!.. so we trade one sh** model for another sh** model. Honestly it’s doing a decent job of sniffing I85 in the upstate although the high/low total fringe should be moved another 25 miles north of where it is now. And totals should be cut by a factor of 4Here's an FV3 map through hour 78 that appears to better pickup on the areas that see snow. Not bad. It's one of the colder models but may be too cold too, we will need to see how well it actually verifies.
They must be giving the FV3 a bit more weight in that prediction lol.They've updated mby in Athens also. This morning FFC had mby at 90% rain/snow on Sunday; now it's 100% wintry mix on Sunday.
NoSnowATL
Member
Brad is prob the best we have at the moment. Ella Dorsey is fairly new so time will tell, she was right about last Dec when others discounted the high totals.
You remember how bad FFC blew the early Dec snowstorm last year ? On this board, people were saying we would get hammered and FFC and Atlanta mets stayed conservative. I trust the guys on here way more than any met in GA.
Kylo
Member
UK and GEFS shifted N/W some.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
They are the national weather service and Brad P. Even said himself models aren’t handling the cad well enough. They may be on to something
Pivotal Weather has one it just takes forever for it to come out...
Lots of banter..... just a friendly reminder please help us keep this thread clean/crisp and on topic. Thanks