Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[whatalife]

Definitely worried a threat for ZR could sneak up on you and the Atlanta folks at the last second if this CAD high is really as strong as modeled.

Yep that’s my main concern right now.


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[packfan98]

Here's the reason the Euro warms things up at the 850 level. It has a very weak/diffuse 850 low up in Tennessee that is in the process of transferring to SC and off the NC coast. In the process of this the TN 850 low is bringing in E to ESE winds which warms things up.


You can see it here on this map as well with the warm air advection pushing well inland. This detail is something the globals may not be able to properly resolve this far out and we may need to wait for the NAM/RGEM to figure out how this will unfold with any LP transfer.

The Euro would be the best of the globals to seek out these features because of it's higher resolution. It will be good to get the other Hi-Res models take on it starting tomorrow and Thursday.

 

[Avalanche]

The Euro would be the best of the globals to seek out these features because of it's higher resolution. It will be good to get the other Hi-Res models take on it starting tomorrow and Thursday.

Randolph Co has look good on several suites now.

 

[Kylo]

Interesting precip min for central NC. Although 1-1.5" qpf is no slouch.

 

[snowlover91]

The Euro would be the best of the globals to seek out these features because of it's higher resolution. It will be good to get the other Hi-Res models take on it starting tomorrow and Thursday.

I agree, the Euro should pick up on it. I'm curious what the mesoscale models will show when in range, usually in complex setups like this they can be quite different.

 

[EastAtlwx]

This is probably a stupid question but does anyone have experience with how well treated roads will be and if I have4 wheel drive will i be able to get back for my exam 7-10 pm on Monday night?

 

[Tarheel1]

It’s going to be nice when this wave is sampled. I cannot imagine this southward trend continuing much longer.


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Unless cold push/confluence, is well underestimated!?

 

[Webberweather53]

Interesting precip min for central NC. Although 1-1.5" qpf is no slouch.


View attachment 8278

Lol you know it's a good storm when you get shafted and still have almost 1.5" QPF

 

[SnowNiner]

Uh, hello?! Could someone throw me down a rope please? I'd like to climb back up the cliff now....I jumped too soon. Hello? lol.

Wow, just catching up on great trends overnight and this afternoon. While the operational models are nice to look at, I'm more interested at this point just making sure the ensembles keep the track along the florida panhandle and off the coast. This FV3 inland running non-sense has to stay away.

Excellent to see both the Ukmet and Euro now agreeing on the overall parameters of a southern NC piedmont snowstorm. Those 2 are my jam.

 

[WXinCanton]

@WXinCanton Ellijay is right on the gradient according to the EURO clown ,map. Showing 4" here, 15" only 15 miles to my east and nothing 15 miles to my west. Getting closer today though!

I will chase if it's that close!!! Just have to procure a 4WD vehicle to use. Though my Fusion can hold its own fairly well. Honestly if the CAD over performs I could see a major IP event or ZR in our neck of the woods. I'm down with that, lol.

 

[Rosie]

I will chase if it's that close!!! Just have to procure a 4WD vehicle to use. Though my Fusion can hold its own fairly well. Honestly if the CAD over performs I could see a major IP event or ZR in our neck of the woods. I'm down with that, lol.

No freezing rain, forest close to my house.

 

[Kylo]

I will say the 850 low tracked south of us so I'm holding out hope that temps will be colder.... but overall that's too amped, too close to the coast for us

Yeah, I thought we would have been better off with this 850mb low track...over MYR. Borderline temps will always rule I guess.

 

[Sandstorm94]

Euro Master... Jesh

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Euro Master... Jesh

sheeeeeeesh

 

[Snowfan]

FFC:


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Medium-range models continue to point toward at least a chance for a
wintry mix of precipitation across portions of the forecast area
this weekend into early next week. Run-to-run variations continue
concerning the path of the surface low, but GFS and ECMWF are now
generally a bit closer to each other, bringing the low across far
south Georgia. Best chances for wintry precipitation remain confined
to the far northeast at this time, but will need to be watched
closely for any trends toward a cooler solution. Both the GFS and
ECMWF have backed off some on the wrap around precipitation
potential Sunday night through Monday, keeping the system a bit more
progressive and not anchoring a surface low along the Carolina coast
for an inordinate amount of time. All-in-all, I made minimal changes
to the extended forecast grids with this cycle.

 

[malak05]

Always living by a thread in the winter for MS/AL/GA the underdogs of the South

 

[packfan98]

12z NavGem has a track similar to Euro. Just a bit further off shore to help those on the eastern side.

 

[Yellow Snow]

This is probably a stupid question but does anyone have experience with how well treated roads will be and if I have4 wheel drive will i be able to get back for my exam 7-10 pm on Monday night?

If you're talking about GA roads, supposedly the state DOT has new & improved brine treatment...

 

[Jrips2710]

12z Euro 3 hour precip type GIF courtesy of Ryan Maue on twitter

 

[Snowfan]

Euro Master... Jesh

Woah.