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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

DadOfJax said:
This is just epic....going from feet to sleet to rain for most. Hang on to whichever model gives you hope, but at the end, this is going to be a meltdown like we haven't seen in a while. Perfect example of why the NWS offices are conservative....it usually pays off.
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I was joking about this yesterday...this has been going on for years
"Wow global models looks great and they are trending better"
*nam comes in warm*
"It's the NAM, it's probably not right"
*hrrr comes in even warmer than NAM*
"Eh, the hrrr doesn't handle winter weather or CAD well"
*rains all night*
 
In this case, trends are not your friends if you want snow. Perhaps RAH will be right after all? Still need the NAM 3K to be a little closer in time to be sure
 
All I have gotten from today’s runs so far is the CMC has come in line with the other globals. UK looks similar to 0z.
 
DadOfJax said:
This is just epic....going from feet to sleet to rain for most. Hang on to whichever model gives you hope, but at the end, this is going to be a meltdown like we haven't seen in a while. Perfect example of why the NWS offices are conservative....it usually pays off.
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FFC is not being very conservative in terms of forecasting. I mean where is the support for this?
Plotter.php
 
scroback said:
I was joking about this yesterday...this has been going on for years
"Wow global models looks great and they are trending better"
*nam comes in warm*
"It's the NAM, it's probably not right"
*hrrr comes in even warmer than NAM*
"Eh, the hrrr doesn't handle winter weather or CAD well"
*rains all night*
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And you started out so good.... (slowly backs away from the ban button). ;)
 
Kylo said:
All I have gotten from today’s runs so far is the CMC has come in line with the other globals. UK looks similar to 0z.
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Yeah let's see what the Ukie and the Euro show, this is a very complex pattern to say the least
 
Kylo said:
All I have gotten from today’s runs so far is the CMC has come in line with the other globals. UK looks similar to 0z.
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GFS still showed a good storm for most of NC. Usually we would love to get totals like it showed the last run.
 
like I've been saying and won't likely change, this looks like a major IP fest for clt and now even north clt areas and rah
 
ForsythSnow said:
FFC is not being very conservative in terms of forecasting. I mean where is the support for this?
Plotter.php
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Yeah that doesn't make sense at all, the only thing that I've been saying is the northeastern parts of this state need to watch for ice because of how CAD can go in the models. I don't see the snow outside of the far, far northeastern part of the state or with backside flurries, and the sleet might just be at the onset.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
But its trending in the wrong direction, right ?
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Yes...general trend is not good....still time to change though...complex scenario with a lot of moving pieces. My gut is that this trend continues though and this becomes a major sleetfest for western half of NC, some snow for the mtns, and a cold rain for the rest of us.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
They have to think models are underestimating the CAD
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They might be. At the same time, there could be pockets where the column supports it as the NAM and other models show some small break off 850mb freezing pockets, so perhaps they could go further up too. Maybe this is where they are getting the snow part because otherwise sleet seems more reasonable. However as the low approaches that risk goes to almost 0 when the 850s skyrocket and the surface dives. At the same time, I expect their forecast to be different in a few hours showing mostly rain and a little sleet. If they keep it, I have to wonder why since it's going downhill for GA per the models fast today.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I wouldn't call one run a trend yet.
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I think a lot of what people are seeing is largely model "noise" where we are noticing tiny 20-50 mile shifts north/south in various things like the 850 0C line, dewpoints, rain/snow line, etc. I agree, for this to be a trend warmer we would need to see the 18z and 00z models also continue warmer. If they go back cooler this evening then it shows we are just seeing run to run variability. We also need to get fully in range of the RGEM and 3km NAM and then see a few runs of those models to see any potential trends. I also expect precip will move in a little quicker than modeled, usually these overrunning events see that. The RGEM has it moving in early Saturday AM.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png
 
I would not be shocked at all if it verified, but I find the 12z 12km NAM suspect because it shows a much later arrival of precipitation than the 3km and other models. It also seems to be much drier with the "front end thump" than other models.

Something else to consider: if temperatures at RDU are just a couple degrees colder than predicted by the GFS could we be looking at a crippling ice storm similar to 2002? NAM shows subfreezing temperatures for most of the event. In the 2002 storm, temperatures hovered in the 30-32 degree range and that was enough to cause major impacts.
 
Lol what? They clearly didn't see the 12Z runs.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1059 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018


.UPDATE...
Forecast looks to be on track, with only minor updates to
temperature and dew point grids through the afternoon. Continue to
evaluate winter precip potential through early next week, with
some adjustments expected with the afternoon forecast package
following evaluation of latest model runs. At this time, looks
like freezing rain potential is increasing for nightime periods
over the weekend.
Click to expand...
 
CyclonicFury said:
I would not be shocked at all if it verified, but I find the 12z 12km NAM suspect because it shows a much later arrival of precipitation than the 3km and other models. It also seems to be much drier with the "front end thump" than other models.

Something else to consider: if temperatures at RDU are just a couple degrees colder than predicted by the GFS could we be looking at a crippling ice storm similar to 2002? NAM shows subfreezing temperatures for most of the event. In the 2002 storm, temperatures hovered in the 30-32 degree range and that was enough to cause major impacts.
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An ice storm is possible, but unfortunately it's a self limiting process due to latent heat release, and given that the high weakens and moves off to the east later on in the storm( when the warm nose is strongest ), we lose our source of dry air to offset the latent heat release of freezing, so we'll probably just hover around 32. Earlier on when we could be below freezing, I bet 80% of the precip falling from the sky will be sleet
 
NAM was worse, GFS wasn't as good, and now the Canadian and FV3 are colder and snowier. I guess we get the model wars now.
 
Fv3 has me with a paste job, and a county south all rain, that will haunt me throughout the storm if it verifies
 
Is it considered model noise when the Euro comes in giving me rain and 37? Or should I still expect snow and ice?
 
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