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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

SD said:
Nam probably spends the first 6-10 hours moistening the column across central nc.

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Yeah a lot of precip "wasted" moistening up the column, at onset my DP was 20 and very dry through the column.... seems to be setting up for a bad ice storm imo
 
No need to panic, by any means, things are still evolving and they’re changing every run there really hasn’t been much consistency in my honest opinion. I will say I don’t like the fact that the NAM has trended weaker with the high in the CAD region, no that’s not a good sign.

Again, I’m gonna repeat this again. Every single model is having consistency issues on every different run, that’s not me being overly optimistic at all it’s just saying there’s still so much unknown there’s no consistency on any of the models
 
deltadog03 said:
No need to panic, by any means, things are still evolving and they’re changing every run there really hasn’t been much consistency in my honest opinion. I will say I don’t like the fact that the NAM has trended weaker with the high in the CAD region, no that’s not a good sign.

Again, I’m gonna repeat this again. Every single model is having consistency issues on every different run, that’s not me being overly optimistic at all it’s just saying there’s still so much unknown there’s no consistency on any of the models
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What’s your opinion on the trailing wave?

namconus_T850_seus_53.png
 
WeatherLC said:
what's this based on? surface temps are below freezing per nam
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TWC in house model run. Showed temps at 37 degrees from 8am Saturday-4AM Sunday, then it’s down to 32 and precip is down to showers. That doesn’t scream ice storm to me
 
I'm going to wait for a few more model runs. The NAM could be correct with its warm nose but we still have 3 days to go. When the NAM shows a warm nose, it should not be ignored, but it's still just one run for now.
 
The low is elongated and in the trends shown above, the elongation is pushing farther up towards west central TN. Is that why the warm nose was worse this run? Is it trying to go full miller b and close off a second low up there?
 
The 3km looks a little more realistic with moving precip in. I think the biggest problem I see right now is the NAM has been trending higher with dewpoints across CAD regions, more in line with the global modeling, and building the HP in slower. That's not what you want to see.
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_60.png
 
Matthew East said he would give the nod to the globals right now.

Read this RE: NAM.....

Just poured through the hour-by-hour profiles for KCLT in BUFKIT from the 6z NAM.... 12z wasn't in yet.

Really fascinating. Even out to 3-4z Sunday, the dewpoint is ABOVE freezing from essentially the SFC up to around 5k feet. Then, extremely quickly and dramatically, EXTREME drying kicks in at 2k-4k feet over the next few hours... I mean extreme. Dewpoints drop 10s of degrees C at those layers as strong NE winds kick in at those levels.

That is when the dynamic cooling really starts to kick in.... which is after the end of the 3k NAM's range that someone posted a moment ago.

Interesting.

Compared to the 6z GFS, the NAM atmospheric profile is warmer by a decent margin than the GFS at precip onset. BUT, this isn't due to a warm nose....it's the initial airmass. At this point, for that aspect of the system, I would still give a slight lean to the globals.
 
Crazy dry nose developing on the nam at 850. It then develops a sharp 850mb front near the SC /Ga border. This means moisture inflow is stopped and we are relying on moistening from h7 down to generate precip.
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I guess it just goes to show you we have a LOOOOONG way to go with this y'all. I know its crazy, but there really hasn't been that much consistency at all right now.
 
SD said:
With this much fgen at 6z the idea of a virga storm to me is bs
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That's a deep layer of dry air though. 2.5km of it that needs to be moistened before precip can reach the ground. Plus note the dry NE'erly flow associated with the CAD. The HP is still pumping in dry air2018120612_NAM_066_35.81,-78.87_severe_ml.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even though the precip output says otherwise, the end of the 3km NAM run verbatim is a wet snow sounding for Charlotte with a deep isothermal layer extending up to 800 hPa and surface temps barely above freezing. As soon as warm air advection kicks in aloft, this would go over to sleet here.

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Just wait for that 15mb thick above freezing layer at 825mb to have you go to sleet right away ;)
 
SD said:
Crazy dry nose developing on the nam at 850. It then develops a sharp 850mb front near the SC /Ga border. This means moisture inflow is stopped and we are relying on moistening from h7 down to generate precip.
8fac08e44850455193f2a57465d90bb1.jpg


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You beat me to it lol
 
Would that green in upstate. Be snow on gfs. I know how the TT sometimes doesn’t show it
 
So far a nice chilly rain for GA. Not sure if the ULL will deliver. But by all means subtract the ice and give us at least a flizzard.


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