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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

ZV3pV9L.png

850 low looks like a good track for NC to me.....
ecmwf_2018-12-04-12Z_144_55_230_20_300_Frontogenesis_850.png

Yeah, that looks good to me for Raleigh and points west.
 
Here's the reason the Euro warms things up at the 850 level. It has a very weak/diffuse 850 low up in Tennessee that is in the process of transferring to SC and off the NC coast. In the process of this the TN 850 low is bringing in E to ESE winds which warms things up.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_7.png


You can see it here on this map as well with the warm air advection pushing well inland. This detail is something the globals may not be able to properly resolve this far out and we may need to wait for the NAM/RGEM to figure out how this will unfold with any LP transfer.
ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_850_seus_7.png
 
For the clt areas I still think IP will be a issue but my area 2 counties north will probably be on the northern side of the cutoff Becuase it's like that everytime
 
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