Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[CyclonicFury]

If the front end thump snowfall is intense enough it may not take very long to pick up a few inches of snow before the possible changeover to rain or mixed precip. In February 2014, it only took about five hours of snow to give us a solid five inches before the changeover to sleet and freezing rain that evening. Temperatures will be warmer this time, which would likely slow accumulations a bit, but I do think the snow could be heavy enough to give us at least an inch or so.

 

[Tarheel1]

We're about another day or so away from where the NAM begins to carry as much or more weight than the globals.

I hope, cause 12z NAM is warmer and N from 6z

 

[Kylo]

Tough to get snow when you don’t have precip. Mid day Sunday and nothing to I40.

 

[CyclonicFury]

NAM showing ZR over Wake County at hour 81...

 

[Rain Cold]

Seem to be headed in the wrong direction in the CAD areas with the NAM. Uh oh.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I find this run of the nam very realistic for clt

 

[Fountainguy97]

12z is much warmer that 06z

 

[Tarheel1]

The one noticeable trend in the NAM lately is the 12km version at the surface is completely changing the orientation of the overrunning event and cold high to the north, and the protrusion of precipitation extending north into the central plains is virtually gone from earlier runs.
View attachment 8620

And no snow into the Carolinas early and high 2-3 mb weaker

 

[Mitch West]

Dang, it's done shifted North out the Midlands.. NAM sucked me in a bit there..

 

[Kylo]

Seem to be headed in the wrong direction in the CAD areas with the NAM. Uh oh.

I remember when the NAMs were showing rain for RDU in 2017 and we were like...don’t trust the NAM’s.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Never bet against the north trend.

 

[Tarheel1]

Seem to be headed in the wrong direction in the CAD areas with the NAM. Uh oh.

Got to get in HRRR range!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

81 is a Roxboro to Boone pound fest. Everyone else changes to IP. There’s your warm nose

 

[Jessy89]

Is it just me or does the nam not get stuff started in upstate until 6 or 7 am. Then a icy/snowy mix till late evening

 

[malak05]

Well this should cause mass hysteria

 

[Storm5]

---- the NAM is failing me it went north with the Tennessee snow . Might have to go to Kentucky now


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[Pilotwx]

Thunderstorms on the Gulf coast , probably robing moisture as well as warming the Atmosphere

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Never bet against the north trend.
View attachment 8622

It’s not a precip N trend but It’s def a north trend with the “all snow” line

 

[Tarheel1]

poop the NAM is failing me it went north with the Tennessee snow . Might have to go to Kentucky now


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Just head on up to Indiana! You’ve got a friend

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

poop the NAM is failing me it went north with the Tennessee snow . Might have to go to Kentucky now


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how many reservations have you changed now?

 

[DopplerWx]

if brick bought a shovel for his 6-12" i hope he kept his receipt.

 

[RollTide18]

Liking the trailing energy, NAM has snow breaking out in W Mississippi

 

[Tarheel1]

Thunderstorms on the Gulf coast , probably robing moisture as well as warming the Atmosphere

At the rate the NAM is shifting North, I’m gonba have to monitor my severe risk!

 

[Fountainguy97]

HP is weakening each run on nam. You can watch the lines pull out of the Carolinas.

 

[deltadog03]

I have notice NAM is delayed a bit more on the strong push in CAD areas this run again from the 00z and 6z. Whats interesting to me the SFC low has actually trended south this run a little bit as well.

 

[Webberweather53]

The NAM has been extremely consistent in the southern plains the day before the event! Not.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Well, at lest MS and AL might have a shot at some convective snow showers associated with the upper level energy Monday/Tuesday.

 

[Tarheel1]

The wraparound will save us, or ULL, or whatever straw we grasp at now, after GFS shows rain in a bit

 

[WeatherLC]

Still a significant icestorm in CAD areas per nam

 

[RollTide18]

Well, at lest MS and AL might have a shot at some convective snow showers associated with the upper level energy Monday/Tuesday.

Yup, for once we got a good run this way.

 

[RollTide18]

 

[Jessy89]

Nam equals severe ice for upstate

 

[Brick Tamland]

Well, more room for me up here on the cliff with all the folks jumping after that one NAM run.

If you know things are going to always turn out bad, I'm not sure why you even come on here until 24 hours out before a storm is supposed to hit.

 

[Fountainguy97]

I will say there is plenty of time for it to trend the other way again. Still a lot of frozen precip for many.

Better to have the warm trend now than 24 hrs out.

 

[packfan98]

 

[SD]

Nam probably spends the first 6-10 hours moistening the column across central nc.

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[Jessy89]

I could be wrong but if nam verifies. The mountains totals could be but in half

 

[Webberweather53]

This run of the NAM verbatim is an epic sleet fest in/around Charlotte, at a minimum I think we can anticipate a few inches of sleet down here out of this barring extreme changes in this overall setup the next day or two.

 

[Tarheel1]

Nam equals severe ice for upstate

It’s gonna be hard to get a lot of accretion @ 35 degrees

 

[Brick Tamland]

Snow or ice, either way it would still be a big deal.