packfan98
Moderator
The LOWEST snow output on the 6z GEFS is 12" for Greensboro. 7 members has 2 feet or more! Wow! I'm saving these.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Things to watch out for:
Negative
1) NW trend (suppressive heights trending less) and/or low amping up more
2) HP weaker and or delayed
3) Warm nose undermodeled
4) Precip moving in late, after max afternoon heating
Positive
1) CAD undermodeled
2) Can’t think of anything else
Personally, based on experience, I’d give all of those things a good chance of verifying. I’m counting on the CAD being undermodeled to offset the opposing negative factors in order to have a major winter storm (wintry mix) here. Trends should show themselves today and tomorrow.
Negative
1) NW trend (suppressive heights trending less) and/or low amping up more
2) HP weaker and or delayed
3) Warm nose undermodeled
4) Precip moving in late, after max afternoon heating
Positive
1) CAD undermodeled
2) Can’t think of anything else
Personally, based on experience, I’d give all of those things a good chance of verifying. I’m counting on the CAD being undermodeled to offset the opposing negative factors in order to have a major winter storm (wintry mix) here. Trends should show themselves today and tomorrow.
So when is the new Jeep wrangle being gave away on the 12 days of Christmas. I need it to go to North Carolina snow chase.
charlotte and raleigh, temper your expectations now if you love snow. sleet and an icy mix is likely but the nam is already showing sleet and rain and has jumped ship from the thumping of snow the euro is showing. even the gfs soundings have regressed for clt and history tells you it only gets worse from here. i believe someone said there has not been a 10"+ snowstorm in CLT in december since the 1890s, and that's likely for a reason. fully expecting rain and sleet and minimal if any snow in clt unless the backend over performs.
a foot of snow at 10:1. No way will RDU see 10:1 because of mixing/temps. 6:1 is probably a better assumption
Avalanche
Member
I think the models are already underplaying the weaker HP for us, so the output on that might be legit (let's hope that's as bad as it gets). LOL
Gsp has 12 inches for Clt lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NAM is often pretty unreliable after 48-60 hours on specifics however, I'd give this at least another 5 runs or til about tomorrow morning or afternoon before getting concerned about how its handling this against global NWP.
NCSNOW
Member
Your not going to see a nw trend with this storm. You may however see a nw trend with rain snow line. Everyone sitting on the fringes needs to understand that it comes down to timing and placement of the hp building in, arrival of precip (watch that finger band that always shows up earlier than modeled) and the exact track of the 850 low. Key is to watch the hp postion. That will be what causes the see saw back n forth swings today.
As long as it doesn't become too amped and pull poleward, the only positive (CAD undermodeled) can overcome the rest
packfan98
Moderator
Here could be the fly in the ointment for big totals. SLEET. Hopefully we can get a good handle on the column profile today. In the back of my mind I'm thinking that some sleet wouldn't be a bad thing to keep me from losing power...
LovingGulfLows
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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Weren't a lot of people praising the NAM yesterday when it was showing super cold temps and lots of snow?
Right now, we’re just seeing oscillations with various guidance...a step colder, a step back warmer, etc. Noting how things trend over the next 24-48 hours should tell the tale on who gets a major, mostly frozen storm, even if the exact rain/snow line will still be difficult to pin down.
Patiently awaiting 12Z runs
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NAM is often pretty good in handling CAD against other global NWP models and it's consistently had a deeper more extensive dome extending into the midlands of SC and NE GA which is more likely to verify but determining p-type distributions and evolution locally it's still often pretty squirrely at this range
Avalanche
Member
You watch and see if Randolph County outperforms Chatham/Wake. Being one to 2 counties west makes a difference. Hate you have to be in southern Randolph though. Trinity/Archdale a better location. But Randolph will fare better.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd probably go 6-12" in the Triad and for most east of the mountains that have the best thermal profiles just based on the potential for significant mixing with sleet. The southern mountains are the only area I'd be confident enough for 12+
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
You know even if you get a couple of inches of snow with sleet and freezing rain, that is still a big deal here and will be a high impact event.
packfan98
Moderator
I'm in the NW part of the county just below Archdale. We usually do pretty well. Take a blend between Asheboro and Greensboro usually.
I think clt will see a front thump of snow then get a sleetfest, happens everytime then go a few counties up and you have a nice snowstorm with some sleet
Andy Hamachek
Member
When do watches and warnings start getting posted?
Avalanche
Member
Yeah, especially if surface temps get cold enough for roads/bridges/power lines to take a hit.
Avalanche
Member
"The fun part is seeing it happen"-Fixed
packfan98
Moderator
Thanks. I was thinking the same amounts. In the Triangle debacle storm in 2017, I ended up with 5 inches of sleet/snow and .75" qpf. My best guess for my backyard this go round is 8 inches at the moment with closer to a foot in GSO and 12+ to the North and West of the Triad.
LovingGulfLows
Member
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It won't be fun if you're the one getting screwed out of a potentially great storm.
Just speaking for my area there is a huge difference between the GFS and it's replacement (FV3 obviously looks better) and I will say the sounding on the FV3 look very similar to the NAM at onset of precip, with the NAM being just a few degrees colder at the surface..... I'm cautiously optimistic about the frontend and that it can hold on longer than anticipated.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Life goes on.
RealtorWeatherGirlGA
Member
For GA probably tomorrow evening even into Saturday. There is still so much uncertainty for here that, it will be constantly updating any advisory, watches or warnings. NE Mountains will likely be issued a warning tomorrow at some point if things verify.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I definitely remember that lol, we'll have at least double, if not triple the amount of QPF in some locations so we could see legitimate accumulations of sleet in a scenario like this. Something in the ballpark of 2-5" is realistic for the RDU-CLT corridor with Charlotte doing slightly better overall w/ a deeper CAD dome there.
NWS RAH seems to be expecting heartbreak for RDU snow lovers by expecting mostly a rain/snow mix changing to rain with a high of 38. Maybe they are on to something but nearly every model is colder and most show predominantly snow now. Still 3 days out from the event so they must be thinking a trend of the snow line north and west is still possible.
"Sunday
A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%."
"Sunday
A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%."
snowlover91
Member
NAM is rolling and out to hour 14 the heights in the NE US are pressing down a touch but otherwise no real changes. Should be interesting to see what this does at the end of the run. Still too far out to put much stock in what it shows, my rule of thumb is usually to not take it seriously until it's within hour 60 and in range of the 3km which is where it seems to get much better.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I don't see this completely changing over to rain at least for a long duration as the NWS expects from the Triangle area & points NW, not with a CAD dome of this ferocity being able to constantly resupply cold/dry air into the piedmont.
I know this won't be a super popular opinion, but at this point you just have to accept what he eventually will happen, (and to be honest there's really not much consistency with any of the models run to run and within the OP) honestly to me this storm is a huge bonus right now for everyone. The fact that we're having this conversation, and not having to punt all or some of December is awesome. There will be winners and there will be losers and that's just the weather, well hell that's life .
TigerSnow
Member
Most likely basing this off of past performance of storms. Probably estimating a pretty big warm nose that we usually always seem to get.
snowlover91
Member
For those who have access to the 6z Euro, did it shift north/south with our system and colder or warmer? How did QPF look? I saw a snow map but since those only go out to hour 90 on the off hour runs it's tough to figure out much from it.
great point. past few years we were talking about pinning our hope on friggin february at this time of the year
Even if we don't get much snow accumulation from this system, high temperatures for Sunday in the RDU area have trended colder on models. NAM only has Wake County at 29 degrees on Sunday at 18z, and a signifciant winter event would occur at that temperature regardless of whether it was snow or not. I'm not sure what model NWS RAH and most local forecasts are holding onto as nearly every model that I have seen has a high temperature near freezing, not near 40 degrees F.