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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Just wondered what the rgem would look like and it already has some precip into western nc by hour 60
 
It looks like the GFS finally started to get the idea of a good CAD push, but just too late for most of GA this run. But baby steps right? Lol .NAM looked like a good push but a little later this run and hence the not as much frozen in GA .we March on to the 12z.
 
SD said:
Haha this is max right over our house

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What was that, like 40”? 6z was less mostly because it had less qpf.
 
No snow for you said:
Which model shows the most cold rain and least amount of snow? That’s the one I am hugging but damn they all show me getting over a foot.
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Yep, that’s the way to do it. I’m thinking CMC or ICON.
 
Jon said:
feee610b99d381d4254fb18f6cead7bc.gif


06z NAM slightly weaker CAD than 00z and slightly warmer 850s


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Surprised to see GSP front end rain and then just ice.
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From FFC
...Accumulating snowfall possible over the mountains and other
areas of northeast Georgia Saturday into Sunday...

...Heavy rainfall is also expected across north and central
Georgia...

Confidence is increasing in the potential for a winter storm
for the far northeast portions of the forecast area. The period of
most concern is Saturday night into Sunday for the mountains and
far northeast counties. At this time, the counties most likely
affected are Eastern Fannin, Eastern Dawson, Union, Lumpkin,
Towns, White, Hall and Banks. It is way too early to mention
amounts but this is the area with the greatest chances for
accumulations.

The latest forecast storm total rainfall amounts have increased
over the area from previous with this next system. We are now
expecting a widespread area of 2.5 to 3 inch totals from Columbus
to Rome and points east. Given recent systems across the area and
the time of year, we can expect at least some isolated flooding
issues.

Residents of north and central Georgia should keep up with all
forecast updates as things are likely to change.
 
StoneMtnWx said:
From FFC
...Accumulating snowfall possible over the mountains and other
areas of northeast Georgia Saturday into Sunday...

...Heavy rainfall is also expected across north and central
Georgia...

Confidence is increasing in the potential for a winter storm
for the far northeast portions of the forecast area. The period of
most concern is Saturday night into Sunday for the mountains and
far northeast counties. At this time, the counties most likely
affected are Eastern Fannin, Eastern Dawson, Union, Lumpkin,
Towns, White, Hall and Banks. It is way too early to mention
amounts but this is the area with the greatest chances for
accumulations.

The latest forecast storm total rainfall amounts have increased
over the area from previous with this next system. We are now
expecting a widespread area of 2.5 to 3 inch totals from Columbus
to Rome and points east. Given recent systems across the area and
the time of year, we can expect at least some isolated flooding
issues.

Residents of north and central Georgia should keep up with all
forecast updates as things are likely to change.
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National Weather Service has Rain/Sleet/Snow forecast for my ZIP Code and I'm nowhere close to those areas.... but rather in Tucker/Norcross. It's always a last minute, wait and see for us, though, so I'm used to it. LOL
 
FFC has for my area Saturday night into Sunday snow/sleet 100% with a qpf of 1.4". Imagine the accumulations from that. This has to be the longest storm I've seen in a forecast given it tapers off and returns Tuesday.
 
TerryInTucker said:
National Weather Service has Rain/Sleet/Snow forecast for my ZIP Code and I'm nowhere close to those areas.... but rather in Tucker/Norcross. It's always a last minute, wait and see for us, though, so I'm used to it. LOL
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Better to be safe but it’s looking like a cold rain for the metro area boys, local Mets seem to be backing off and upping temps. Might have to watch flooding issues.
 
Also FFC take on storm:
LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
The main concern for the long term period continues to be the
potential for a winter mix of precipitation across portions
of the forecast area this coming weekend into Tuesday morning.

The GFS and European are similar with developing low pressure
along the Gulf Coast and moving it across the S GA/N FL area
on Sunday and then into the Atlantic thereafter with the GFS
being a little faster.

Deep moisture is forecast to move over the area Friday night and
Saturday with a rather strong surface ridge of high pressure
developing down the eastern Appalachians providing a strong
overrunning flow. The question will be is how cold the airmass
will be through Sunday over the NE counties, especially the
mountains. For the most part, a cold rain can be expected. However
a period of a winter mix is certainly possible of mainly sleet and
snow and this will depend greatly on how cold the airmass is over
the NE counties. Confidence is still low for significant accumulations
but HAS grown. At this time, the target area with the best chance
of accumulating snow is the higher elevations of the NE Mountains
and as far south as Madison, Banks and Hall counties.

This forecast will continue to be a watch and monitor of future
model runs to see how this system might develop.

The associated upper system moves to and across the area Sunday
night into Monday night giving potential for a Rain/Snow shower mix.
At this time, any precipitation amounts with the upper system
are expected to be light. Any snow accumulations will be most likely
in the Mountains.

Forecast high temperatures for Saturday into Tuesday are expected
to be well below normal. Otherwise temperatures are most likely
within several degrees of normal for most locations.
 
Jon said:
feee610b99d381d4254fb18f6cead7bc.gif


06z NAM slightly weaker CAD than 00z and slightly warmer 850s


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Looks like it shifted South a little but also eroded the CAD some. If that 1040 High in Wisconsin boogies over fast it could slow this thing down quite a bit once it reaches the coast and perhaps even stall it from moving North much
 
Shawn said:
It was more of a major ZR & Sleet storm. I believe it ended as some light snow.
In my yard, we had so much sleet, it looked like it had snowed though. It was absolutely ridiculous. Probably over 2 inches or so.
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Start as a little snow, sleeted for like 10 hours, then went to light ZR, then light snow coated everything. Was an awesome storm. Sleet sucks, but it's pretty fun to slide around in. I had my skimboard out there sliding around like I was at the beach
 
Wake county is gonna be riding a roller coaster. It could literally do anything at this point and it will be that way the duration of this event. Snow totals look good "at this point" but there will be sleet and freezing rain. Don't see the typical flop at this point but we will see where the day goes
 
SE winter weather build-ups always sucks always so close most of the time just short... especially such a large storm and potential temps just 3-6 degrees to warm for most
 
Looks like the normal heart breaker here. I'd expect nothing more than cold rain from the north west part of Wake County all the way to the coast. Should start to see that NW trend soon.
 
Stump said:
Looks like the normal heart breaker here. I'd expect nothing more than cold rain from the north west part of Wake County all the way to the coast. Should start to see that NW trend soon.
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WRAL still seems confident we can get an inch out of this, but more often than not, that NW trend takes shape in some form.
 
Stump said:
Looks like the normal heart breaker here. I'd expect nothing more than cold rain from the north west part of Wake County all the way to the coast. Should start to see that NW trend soon.
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Based on what?
 
Kylo said:
Surprised to see GSP front end rain and then just ice.
View attachment 8613
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Don’t be! Bet dollars to donuts, we will be in the 40s when precip starts Saturday, then get below freezing about an hour or 2 , before the heavy precip exits
 
6Z GEFS, very good agreement but EPS more likely. Also have to reduce the snow because of sleet likely mixing in
KINT_2018120606_gefs_snow_384.png
 
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