Its still the long range so it may trend warmer, is the nam ever too warm?
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
There have been many cases where it's totally failed here even in CAD situations. What worries me is that someone with knowledge said a recent update from the NAM tends to be too dry in regards to QPF it seems lately. If that's the case, evaporative cooling could catch everyone off guard down this way as heavier precip moves into the area with a wedge actually flowing in strongly.
I wouldn't worry...it will change probably a colder solution at 12z NAM
I'd like to add to my above post, that you can see when the heavier precipitation enters the Midlands area, on both the 00z and now 06z, that is when you see the quick change over.
Does anyone have hourly NAM model frames?
Does anyone have hourly NAM model frames?
Wow. Hopefully by the tonight Jim Gandy will have more of an idea for Columbia Shawn.
FWIW: 6z Icon is also suppressing the system even more and is also colder by 3 to 4 degrees.
Even for Atlanta or your area?
Icon model really have no idea how to handle wedge at all. 1036 High and the temps stay close to the upper 30s for midlands wow.
Something else thats not being talked about thats is concerning to me is the potential for moisture to be rob by thunderstorms along gulf coast.
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06z Gfs almost identical to 0z maybe a little colder.
could only get hrs 50-60 on the gif as the file is to big for anything else
Wow let’s hope Wedge build in deep like what the Nam is showing.
packfan98
Moderator
6z FV3 GFS is a little more amped up. It results in a little further north and warmer solution.
Gfs shifted south.!
packfan98
Moderator
On several of the critical time periods it didn't. What were you referring to? The track of the low, surface or column temps, footprint of snow map, etc...???
It shifted south a little and I see now that it came closer to the coast.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah just minor changes well within what we should expect at this time period. It is always stressful for those living on the southern end of the potential. As long as the Euro/UKMet has no big shifts over the next two runs, we can start nailing down the details using the hi-res nam.
Isn’t their a 6z Euro now or CMC
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, looked like the GFS, Euro, FV3, and NAM all crushed NC last night from Raleigh westward. I don't think I have ever seen all the models do that before.
packfan98
Moderator
Yes. I don't have access to the Euro. I'll see what I can find for the Canadian.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Atlanta was and is more than likely going to have a cold rain. Areas along and especially north and east of Lake Lanier are the only places in Georgia that will flirt with a shot of impactful winter wx. Don’t let the occasional smash job on the FV3 or the NAM lead you to believe that the immediate Atlanta area (ITP) is going to get burried in snow or ice. Hasn’t ever been the case with this storm.
Snowflowxxl
Member
6z a touch warmer. Will have to hope things get colder with the 12z runs
Kylo
Member
You can check the 6z CMC here. Looks like it shifted south.
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-we...b&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
Kylo
Member
6z CMC meteo. Lot of everything in this run for Raleigh.
Kylo
Member
Bernies video is pretty good.
I’ll be saving this one too.What the heck? No good? Well maybe you didn't get 50 inches so y'all can settle for 33 inches
Kylo
Member
Are you saving that one for the same reason I have saved this one for the past 2 years? #Jan2017warmnose
Never forget the warm hose, I mean, nose.
Storm5
Member
Me too cause the mid Atlantic misses out . Now that is a MASSIVE Victory . I bet it’s meltdown mode over there
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TerryInTucker
Member
Love reading this forum and learning from you all.
Can somebody explain the FV3? Is this a new model? Are we just testing it on this storm, or has it been around? I'm a bit confused by it.
Can somebody explain the FV3? Is this a new model? Are we just testing it on this storm, or has it been around? I'm a bit confused by it.
Brandon10
Member
Looked like the eastern NC coast was going to get in on it at one point with the trends farther offshore but of course that has stopped. Guess we will have to be jealous of literally everyone else in the state
It’s the new version of the GFS. It’s in beta now. It is expected to go live and replace the current GFS in January. Hope that helps!
Kylo
Member
Well they seem to be able to pull a rabbit out there hat at the last minute when they need it. I remember the Jan 2010 winter storm, it was looking like a SE crush job, well it shifted north inside 24 hours on the modeling, we mixed like crazy and the MA got 4-8" when they were seemingly out of it. I never forget that. And of course we all know what happened for the next 4 weeks after that. I wouldn't be surprised if the DC crew gets more snow than people Raleigh to Charlotte. I think a last minute shift NW inside 36 almost always happens.
Jon
Member
06z NAM slightly weaker CAD than 00z and slightly warmer 850s
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Good morning everybody! Ready for a wonderful nerve wrecking roller coaster day! Beautiful frosty pink clouds morning in Franklin Co. GA (above 85 part CJ.. Geez). Hope board wide has good luck
That’s what I was concerned about yesterday evening and why I made the comment about the 18z runs being probably about the best we will see. May end up wrong, but trends toward less cold solutions need to be watched and are quite typical around here.
06z NAM slightly weaker CAD than 00z and slightly warmer 850s
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Jessy89
Member
I am concerned about trends today. As bad as I want them to hold steady or go south I know they probably won’t. If we see another south jog it be last minute
My guess is that today we see some slight north oscillations with less of a cold air push.
NCSNOW
Member
06z NAM slightly weaker CAD than 00z and slightly warmer 850s
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HP 1mb weaker but more important ever so slight latter, drag if you will getting into favorable position. watch the axis center over Wisconsin on your loops. The position and timing of HP is as important as it strength in Cad setups. That will be the part to keep an eye out for . If your in SC or NE GA, you want it to get in position a smidge quicker so it can funnel the lower DPs down and have in place before moisture falls. helps the ole wet-bulb better.