• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

FV3
fv3p_asnow_us_25.png
 
Does the low being more south increase snow chances south and east of Raleigh or are temps staying too warm regardless.
 
FV3 came in much warmer this run, most of the snow is in VA and Western NC and that's about it. It has the 850 low all the way up in Kentucky which is why it's so warm. No other model shows that and this will be the first good test of it in NC winter storms. Euro and UK have been much further south as has the old GFS.
fv3p_z850_vort_us_22.png
 

FV3 came in much warmer this run, most of the snow is in VA and Western NC and that's about it. It has the 850 low all the way up in Kentucky which is why it's so warm. No other model shows that and this will be the first good test of it in NC winter storms. Euro and UK have been much further south as has the old GFS.
fv3p_z850_vort_us_22.png

Looks like it has a foot of snow for me. I wouldn't say it is just in western NC. It shows 2/3 of the state getting a huge storm.
 
Looks like it has a foot of snow for me. I wouldn't say it is just in western NC. It shows 2/3 of the state getting a huge storm.
Trust us that map is wrong, that will not be all snow.... note how it even says *includes sleet*.
 
The fv3 would be a quick thump to a sleetfest for me, which seems more realistic
 
The FV3 snow map is completely wrong on Tidbits, it doesn't match up with the p-type and soundings at all so I wouldn't even look at it. It's showing a foot of snow in areas that see rain the entire storm. TT needs to update the algorithm they use because other sites have been able to avoid it with using different methods. I don't buy the 850 low track up into Kentucky as long as the Euro and other models have it much further south. Now if they start trending north in that direction it'll be a big win for the FV3 but right now none of the proven models show that.
 
The fv3 has the kind of beastly CAD high we saw during the Jan 1988 storm with a mid Feb 1987 twist to it featuring a beefier southern wave. This screams epic sleet fest in the east-central piedmont, I'm doubtful we'll have a sharp rain-snow transition zone like Jan 2017 areas where sleet could mix w/ IP might be another story altogether and there might be a bigger gradient there.

fv3p_mslpaNorm_eus_20 (1).png

Screen Shot 2018-12-04 at 12.20.24 PM.png
 
I wouldn't mind sleet, a winter storm is a winter storm, at least it's not a cold rain or zr, sleet does not really knock out power either
 
Oh well, even the most conservative method for snow accumulation for the GFS had 6 plus inches for most of NC. Even that is still a big storm.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JMB
For better Fv3 (and other) precip types/snowfall maps, check out weathernerds.org. They have a more accurate precip-type map, custom zoom regions and sounding generation, and a more sophisticated snowfall accumulation algorithm.

Here's one I'm looking at for the Fv3, though it's only out to 102 so far.
 
Back
Top