12z CMC shows snow farther south and temperatures much colder in central NC. A step in the right direction
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Since this storm is still about 5 days out dont that mean that this medium range and if Im correct Euro is the best at medium range.
Yes, we are currently in medium range and the Euro is very good in mid range.
GFS-FV3 has the high a tad weaker than the GFS.
The fact that some areas in nc might triple or quadruple there winter snow average is incredible and its only December, still have many storms systems this winter
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Surface slightly colder so far however.
Good trends on the models today so far. Knew it would rebound. I think that for NE GA, it's just going to be a wait until it arrives to see how the CAD plays out since the models as mentioned seem to be horrible at handling that. If a 1037 mb high can't do the job then there has to be some insanely warm air being shoved north.
High 5 mb stronger on 12z, hence more S track?!! Great trendGFS run looked a little colder at the 850 level and the ICON, one of the warmest outliers, trended significantly colder/south. Nice consensus starting to form and I expect things to trend colder.
ICON 6z run
ICON 12z run
Snowflowxxl
Member
GEFS?
Wasn't the CAD grossly underdone by models for the past two systems? I recall temperatures being 4-6 colder than modeled. Its always possible this follows that trend.
Well since we been seeing storms with so much qpf from this active stj, and once it's January when we reach good climo, there might be a set up much colder/bigger than this
Griteater says the LP on the 12Z UK exits off around Jacksonville, Fl. and then goes bonkers with a big phase. This is South of it's previous run.
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WeatherAddiction
Member
What would have to happen to get measurable snow fall down even into the midlands of SC?
The pattern is forecast to be more favorable in Jan and Feb. So I believe NC will see a bigger storm when there is more cold air in place.
FV3 is a tad more Amp’d this run. 850’s are not as cold. Pretty similar overall though. Isobars are a little deeper at 96. 2m temps are colder than 6z
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Could certainly be a precursor of things to come, will not be a bit surprised if the Euro comes south today......
Honestly, this storm will end up being a Mid Atlantic Storm because our storms usually need the Gfs to have them suppressed in Cuba in the 5 day timeframe.
At predicted temps on Mt. Mitchell summit, a snow water ratio of 15:1 is not out of the question. 4-5in of QPF could be 60-75 inches of snow.
WXinCanton
Member
How many times has the Ukie tipped off what the Euro will do? Too many to count.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like a 6 inch plus mean for most of NC. Can't beat that.