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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

At this point, I don't really understand what is inconsistent with the models? I mean, there is a little wobbling. But for places in the triad and mountains and even into charlotte, it's been very consistent it seems. Has showed over 6 inches of frozen whatever for charlotte for like 3-4 days now.
 
Don Sutherland had an interesting post at the other board.

IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region.
 
Robert West said:
At this point, I don't really understand what is inconsistent with the models? I mean, there is a little wobbling. But for places in the triad and mountains and even into charlotte, it's been very consistent it seems. Has showed over 6 inches of frozen whatever for charlotte for like 3-4 days now.
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The only thing ive noticed is the convection along the gulf choking our flow a little, so maybe a slight reduction in total liquid. But yeah, charlotte towards boone has been written in stone for daya now.
 
At first, I thought that accumulation map from AshevilleWx was a watch, warning, advisory product. It's a nice map, but it is over done for some, especially west of ATL and eastern TN.
 
Robert West said:
At this point, I don't really understand what is inconsistent with the models? I mean, there is a little wobbling. But for places in the triad and mountains and even into charlotte, it's been very consistent it seems. Has showed over 6 inches of frozen whatever for charlotte for like 3-4 days now.
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Yep. It’s IMBY stuff...the Euro has been pretty solid.


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WxWatch said:
At first, I thought that accumulation map from AshevilleWx was a watch, warning, advisory product. It's a nice map, but it is over done for some, especially west of ATL and eastern TN.
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They’re probably counting in the trailing wave as well
 
I have read others say look at the globals regarding the HP and the NAM regarding cad.
 
Allan is always very bullish.

I can't wait till we get past the weakening trends with the high pressure.
 
Yeah I don't think you can just ignore the NAM entirely here, the globals have issues depicting CAD, except hopefully, the FV3 might be better than the old GFS with handling it (something we'll figure out this winter).

The HP might be too strong though.
 
Jon said:
The last half of your post is pretty much what folks are talking about....

There doesn’t have to be a “big warm nose” for sleet, as I’m certain you know. In some gfs soundings yesterday they were definitely sleet. It just doesn’t take much...the soundings aren’t exactly spectacular and cold enough at all levels to rule out sleet....I’d have to have it a lot colder, like last year for our 6-10”+ storm we had.




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Yeah the models are usually piss-poor in setups like this with depicting a narrower corridor of sleet than what actually verifies. We may see a sharper rain-snow line on the back-end of the storm as cold air advection aloft plus the ULL attempt to scour out the CAD but there's a good part of this storm where it looks like ice pellets could be an issue, I think even more so in Charlotte obviously vs RDU.
 
Jon said:
The last half of your post is pretty much what folks are talking about....

There doesn’t have to be a “big warm nose” for sleet, as I’m certain you know. In some gfs soundings yesterday they were definitely sleet. It just doesn’t take much...the soundings aren’t exactly spectacular and cold enough at all levels to rule out sleet....I’d have to have it a lot colder, like last year for our 6-10”+ storm we had.




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Oh I agree, it's a super-marginal setup for the RDU corridor, I'm just saying that in the end it may end up being more of a rain or snow situation with only a narrow corridor of sleet (which Wake County is obviously a front runner to still be in potentially). Just my thoughts based on typical ptype distribution with these sort of setups - but I could be wrong and it'll certainly be interesting to see how wide the sleet zone ends up being.
 
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Closed off at 500mb in Texas where it other runs it wasn’t, probably won’t mean much though

nam_z500_vort_us_18.png
 
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