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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Guys, I recommend looking at the Kuchera map and NOT the Tidbits one. It includes sleet/zr in the "snowfall" accumulations and is not an accurate portrayal of what the NAM shows. The Kuchera map below shows a good rough estimate that matches soundings quite well.
Kuchera.JPG
 
WxWatch said:
This is the 18z, 12km NAM simulated radar.
606c70cfdc4300d06020b4f0600d4436.gif
Click to expand...
So rain to ice/ sleet then to snow? I just want to see snow flakes as well. This simulated radar has been steady.
 
So I'm not sure if anyone has noticed this, but there is an extended period on the NAM where ALL of WNC changes to sleet, even freezing rain in places, even in the mountains. Aside from a couple random Euro runs, I think this is the only model showing this right now. Wouldn't be surprised if it's on to something...
nam_ptype_slp_nc_25.png
 
Expect precip to come back south as we get inside 48 hours. We already saw this correction to our West today. Maybe a decrease in precip totals as well. VA just got NAM’d
 
hikingtheappalachians said:
So I'm not sure if anyone has noticed this, but there is an extended period on the NAM where ALL of WNC changes to sleet, even freezing rain in places, even in the mountains. Aside from a couple random Euro runs, I think this is the only model showing this right now. Wouldn't be surprised if it's on to something...
nam_ptype_slp_nc_25.png
Click to expand...

Absolutely agree, NEVER discount the warm nose the NAM shows and if anything it's usually even not quite warm enough with it at times. People did that last year in the January 2017 storm when the globals showed a ton of snow, the NAM said "nope there will be a lot of rain and significant warm nose" and in fact it was even stronger of one than the NAM showed. It and the RGEM are the two best models around here for picking up on them.

Having said that, we are still outside of the best range for the NAM and need to wait until we are inside 60 hours for the duration of the storm to see what it shows then.
 
Kylo said:
That looks great, would take that in a heartbeat. I assume this is some company tool you have to filter out IP/FRZN?
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It's as simple as only accumulating the liquid equivalent of the snow if the categorical pytpe at that gridpoint is snow lol. The pre-calculated snow field that comes in the model must just assume anything frozen is snow
 
DarkKnight said:
View attachment 8688 So close for Memphis at 3k nam at 60 hours. I still think their will be a lot of surprise with this system. Amazing how much uncertainty going on with the models.
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DarkKnight, do you think far northern Middle Tennessee could see a surprise out of this one? I’m talking like 20 minuets from the Kentucky boarder.
 
Here is my prediction, I don't do maps so I will just list the major areas of the state (which will have some differences from some areas in the same zones)
Triad- 4-6" Snow, 1-2'' Sleet, .4 ZR
Triangle- 1-2 Snow, 1" Sleet, .75 ZR
Charlotte- 1-2 Snow, 1" Sleet, .1.0 ZR
Southern Mountains- 6-8 Snow, 1.5 Sleet, .2ZR
Northern Mountains- 8-12 Snow, all snow

Upstate- .5 Snow, 1" Sleet, 1.5 ZR
NE Ga.- 1.75 ZR .5 Sleet
EDIT***
Sorry forgot Foothills- 6-10 Snow, 1" Sleet, .2ZR
 
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This little paragraph from Rah NWS loaded with good info and spells out the challenges nicely....

-What to watch out for/what could change: First, the inland
penetration of warm air on the N side of coastal lows is always
problematic. This could cause a significant warm nose to develop
aloft, shifting snow over to more sleet or freezing rain in some
areas. Second, if surface temperatures don`t warm up as advertised
on Sun, especially along and E of the Highway 1 corridor, wintry
precip could last longer, increasing accumulations of both snow and
ice. Third, there are indications in the models that a band of
heavier convective precip is possible over the Southeast, just
inland to just off the Southeast coast, and this could serve to
interrupt transport of high moisture into central NC; if this were
to occur, liquid equivalent precip amounts would be lower. Finally,
if we can achieve banded snow at any point in this event, we could
potentially see localized zones of very heavy snowfall over portions
of the Piedmont.
 
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