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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Chris Justice thinks there will be a 15-20 mile transition zone of freezing rain wedged between the snow and rain line. He looked a little concerned on his FB live post just now
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Chris Justice thinks there will be a 15-20 mile transition zone of freezing rain wedged between the snow and rain line. He looked a little concerned on his FB live post just now
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Wouldn't you be concerned for ZR? I'm just glad I'm on up there in the upstate hopefully I'm for most part out of that ZR stuff.

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Hopefully the NAM is way overdone on this, but seeing 60-70 KT southerlies at 700 hPa near the level where the warm nose would be strongest spells big trouble if you're banking on either a sharp rain-snow line in this storm/narrow corridor of mixed precip or little sleet/ZR. Even if they were half as strong as modeled it'd be a little concerning. We're still another 24-36 hours or so from getting into legitimate, reliable range for this model but we definitely need to see some big changes between now & then
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I've disabled email alerts for now, it was getting ridiculous guys.. like hundreds of emails going out for this thread.
Also, did an overall block of China since they won't stop trying to hack us.

Lolz
 
Shawn said:
I've disabled email alerts for now, it was getting ridiculous guys.. like hundreds of emails going out for this thread.
Also, did an overall block of China since they won't stop trying to hack us.

Lolz
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Probably that douche in Atlanta that tried when we first launched . What a looser that guy is . Ok enough banter for now


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Bsud said:
Wouldn't you be concerned for ZR? I'm just glad I'm on up there in the upstate hopefully I'm for most part out of that ZR stuff.

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It spells serious trouble. We survived the early 2000’s with two of the worst ZR events this area has ever seen. I’m sure we’ll survive this one if it comes to be. I was always disappointed with freezing rain as kid, but in a changing world I can appreciate it for what it is
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wtf GSP lol

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You don’t need to declare an end time if there was never a start time :weenie::( GSP is already at the table eating crow and the event is still a few days out. I give them a pass this time bc they are usually so disciplined with their forecast. Happens from time to time
 
Why cant I see maps? I use Tapatalk and every map posted is blank

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I think the GFS will be right with track but I think its underestimating the CAD. That's what I think is going to come to fruition based on past CAD situations and models mishandling it.

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Bsud said:
I think the GFS will be right with track but I think its underestimating the CAD. That's what I think is going to come to fruition based on past CAD situations and models mishandling it.

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Yeah, would like to see that 1034 higher, even if it is of banana origin.
 
GFS doesn't have much of a warm nose (don't believe it) so it's more of a rn/sn with less icing
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Yeah this taken at face value on the GFS (which is rarely a good idea when it comes to these kinds of setups) is a snow sounding at RDU but I don't feel comfortable with this much veering in the profile and winds screaming at 60 KT from the SSW near 700 hPa. Classic recipe for a very strong, over performing warm nose.

I've seen this movie before...

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Who's ready for the HRRR? All this OP inconsistencies are for the birds!

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I’d be curious to know the timeline leading up to some of our big ZR events in the early 2000’s here in the upstate. Do they usually evolve from Snow threat to cold rain to ZR as you get closer to game time or is usually modeled well in advance?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this taken at face value on the GFS (which is rarely a good idea when it comes to these kinds of setups) is a snow sounding at RDU but I don't feel comfortable with this much veering in the profile and winds screaming at 60 KT from the SSW near 700 hPa.

I've seen this movie before...

View attachment 8697
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You leaning more sleet or frzn towards Triangle?
 
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