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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Chattanooga Tn. doing what Chattanooga does...

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packfan98 said:
Nice bump back south on the 18z GEFS on the snow depth maps on pivotal. Colder at the surface and aloft. 12z seems to be a bit of a blip. After the 0z runs tonight, we should be putting less weight on the ensemble suite, but they are fun to look at when they are all screaming for a big winter storm!
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Ensembles are always better than deterministic guidance. I think it's more that we shift away from using global models and switch to regional or non-hydrostatic models & their ensembles. But ensembles are always the more valuable tool. SREF, HREF, HRRRE, etc will all be coming into their "wheelhouse"
 
Once again, Hurricane Tracker knocks it out of the park in the mountain thread in the other forum! Take a read, and step back from the ledge...
 
packfan98 said:
All of the 18z global models seemed to have beefed up total precip after taking a slight dip with 12z. I have a feeling that at least the surface temps will trend down over the next few runs for the areas in the heart of the CAD as long as the HP doesn't fade or the track of the lows shift.
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There is also a much earlier onset of precip and heavier totals for Saturday evening. At that time most of our soundings are solid snow until 900-925mb. That leaves me to wonder if we are seeing at least weak cold dry advection in these layers along with snow falling and melting can we cool the lowest 100mb to isothermal by Saturday evening before the really big stuff gets here? That would certainly lead to at least higher amounts of total snowfall if not accumulations

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SD said:
There is also a much earlier onset of precip and heavier totals for Saturday evening. At that time most of our soundings are solid snow until 900-925mb. That leaves me to wonder if we are seeing at least weak cold dry advection in these layers along with snow falling and melting can we cool the lowest 100mb to isothermal by Saturday evening before the really big stuff gets here? That would certainly lead to at least higher amounts of total snowfall if not accumulations

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If you're on the "no snow" train... then this sort of thermodynamical/dynamical cooling is exactly what would bust your forecast. It's always possible that precip rates and QG ascent can contribute enough to keep the warm nose at bay
 
Parker said:
I would love to see other models join in on a solution similar to this. Maybe the ULL will gain some strength and start to show on the others, but I’m not super optimistic with only the icon on my side.
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I'm with you that is only 5 miles from my house but l think l would see some very light snow from that map...
 
To the Midlands of SC areas. Outside the Northern Midlands, the EPS and the GEFS have finally backed off with some wonky members. Mainly show some flakes, possibly at the end, as trace amounts.
 
I am over 70% confident the low level jet causes Blizzard Warning criteria for the northern/central mountains and about 30% chance of blizzard warning criteria for foothill counties. It’s been awhile since Statesville and Hickory has seen this. Some locations could see the sides of homes BURRIED do to the screaming low level jet. I’m talking up to 6 feet along the blue ridge parkway near Sparta, NC.
 
I'm still not sold that the freezing line doesn't dip further down into NGA at some point during the storm as we get closer to Sat Night and into the rest of the weekend. Too many times I have experienced a forecast of cold rain only to end up having it switch to ice and sleet due to a over performing wedge. Interested to see the 0Z runs tonight and see if any pick up on a more robust intrusion of cold into our area here.
 
I'm impressed with the FV3 so far with how consistent it has been compared to the other models as others have mentioned earlier. It's managed to maintain a steady balance and not jump like nearly every other model has at some point. If it verifies or not will see if we can put our trust in the model for future storms. So far, I'd have to say the CMC is the loser in terms of run-to-run consistency as it jumped far too much, followed by the GFS which wasn't much better.

I'm excited to see how this storm plays out regardless of if it snows here or not as it looks ripe up ahead and winter has only begun. With a potential historic storm for the NC mountains this early in the season, who knows what's ahead.

That being said, I think ice is going to be a problem for My area eastward, then northeastward, but that back side snow could very well start this winter off well for GA members.
 
My mean on the 18Z GEFS went back up to 16" after falling to 13" on 12Z. We have 9 ensemble members of 20" or more at KINT. Don't believe this is at all possible just wanted to report it has gone back up after dropping from 6Z to 12Z
 
scroback said:
Ensembles are always better than deterministic guidance. I think it's more that we shift away from using global models and switch to regional or non-hydrostatic models & their ensembles. But ensembles are always the more valuable tool. SREF, HREF, HRRRE, etc will all be coming into their "wheelhouse"
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Thanks for all of the maps and analysis that you have provided over the past couple of days. It's becoming quickly obvious that you are a great addition to the forum!
 
This will be fun to watch unfold no matter what. It will be nice seeing the obs being reported by our NC members of their historic storm. It will be interesting to see where the transition lines set up and how it unfolds. Then we will have the backside energy which hopefully will allow most of the board to at least see some early season flakes!
 
Snowflowxxl said:
This will be fun to watch unfold no matter what. It will be nice seeing the obs being reported by our NC members of their historic storm. It will be interesting to see where the transition lines set up and how it unfolds. Then we will have the backside energy which hopefully will allow most of the board to at least see some early season flakes!
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Its gonna be a fun weekend. I hope those of us who may not get in on the action are still rooting for our fellow southerners.
 
Any word on the 18z Euro? Paging @Kylo for one of the wonderful maps that he's been posting for us all week! Many thank, kind sir!
 
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