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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Kylo said:
You leaning more sleet or frzn towards Triangle?
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I'm leaning that way over rain/snow. It wouldn't take a whole lot to put a good part of that column on the GFS above freezing and I certainly don't trust the GFS to sniff out the warm nose (if at all) due to its coarse vertical resolution and poor handling of the low-level CAD dome.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this taken at face value on the GFS (which is rarely a good idea when it comes to these kinds of setups) is a snow sounding at RDU but I don't feel comfortable with this much veering in the profile and winds screaming at 60 KT from the SSW near 700 hPa. Classic recipe for a very strong, over performing warm nose.

I've seen this movie before...

View attachment 8697
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But but but the DGZ is fully super saturated. Lol. God I hope not man.


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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this taken at face value on the GFS (which is rarely a good idea when it comes to these kinds of setups) is a snow sounding at RDU but I don't feel comfortable with this much veering in the profile and winds screaming at 60 KT from the SSW near 700 hPa.

I've seen this movie before...

View attachment 8697
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Btw Eric, I'm guessing you are in the University City area of CLT right? Just wondering
 
Here's the last panel of the 18z RGEM. I like that 1038 HP. I'll be interested to see how it looks tomorrow.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_54.png
 
The globals are not backing down. Looks like RAH is calling for 3 to 5 inches of snow for me. I would gladly take that for the first storm of the season.
 
So really this is coming down to the globals vs. the NAM. But even the NAM looked better last run.
 
I’m trying to be optimistic about our chances In Pickens County sc. but laitley models are showing very little snow perhaps some ice
 
Nice bump back south on the 18z GEFS on the snow depth maps on pivotal. Colder at the surface and aloft. 12z seems to be a bit of a blip. After the 0z runs tonight, we should be putting less weight on the ensemble suite, but they are fun to look at when they are all screaming for a big winter storm!
 
packfan98 said:
Nice bump back south on the 18z GEFS on the snow depth maps on pivotal. Colder at the surface and aloft. 12z seems to be a bit of a blip. After the 0z runs tonight, we should be putting less weight on the ensemble suite, but they are fun to look at when they are all screaming for a big winter storm!
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The 18z GEFS is closer to the 6z/0z GEFS but the 12z GEFS was just a slight bump north. But your right, the Op 18z was very close to the look below.

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_SECONUS_hr126.png
 
Snowfan said:
Don't worry. When the FV3 becomes fully operational in January, it should be less of a wait.
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Correct. Right now, they have to manually add the extra snow depth to the snow maps. That’ll be fully automated in January! Hurrah!
 
Thanks for all the PM’s guys, I have no changes from yesterday I believe if storm chasing I prefer Mount Rogers, VA. Def. no further south than Sparta, NC. Sleet and warm nose will struggle to get to these locations...but over a 75% chance warm nose makes it to Mount Airy and Wilkesboro NC.
 
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