Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[RVD]

Another thing to consider while watching model trends is the genesis of the 850mb low. Here's a comparison of the 18z GFS and NAM at 84:


They're similar on timing/location, but the NAM has a weaker low with larger ridging above it. This is what we want to see for more widespread snow, in addition to a stronger CAD. A weaker, suppressed 850mb low will prevent significant warm air advection. Further into the GFS run, the strength and relatively northward position of the 850mb low is what causes many to turn over to mixed precip or rain. Other than scouring out the CAD too quickly, of course. Granted, this is the long-range NAM but hopefully it delivers similar looks to this in future runs.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Still 4 days . These op runs are well within their ensemble envelope so while it’s not what we want , these type solutions are possible


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True, but an entrenched wedge with a 1035 up top going *poof* is not one of those possible solutions

 

[DadOfJax]

With that run, you can add another inch to the rain totals due to accumulated tears!

 

[Jessy89]

I think it's safe to say, "Possible" can be taken out of the title. Theres probably a 95% chance theres going to be a winter storm.

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100% chance of winter storm for mountains. Upstate gfs says 1inch this run. I’d be happy with 1inch vs nothing. But that’s not my idea of a storm. So I’d still call it possible for upstate

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Is the FV3 not gonna run at 18z?

 

[ForsythSnow]

I think it's safe to say at least someone is getting something. Deleted the possible from the title.

 

[olhausen]

Runs starting tonight will be pretty important

Naah, I’ve had more storms then I’d like show a good solid snow the day before only to start going north in the morning and end up snow into Kentucky and Ohio by day’s end. But yes we do want to start seeing positive trends and not negative ones going into tomorrow as time for good changes will start not being on our side.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

IP will ruin snow amounts. I would recommend deducting up to 75% of any snow map generally from a line near southern Wake to southern Mecklenburg counties. And counting on backside potential or deform bands at this range is silly. A lot of big time events end up as more freezing drizzle or non-accumulating snow showers. I think conservative offices will go with 1-3” and go higher as it happens if it does. Obviously, I am only talking about these two big cities and immediate areas south or east.

 

[Snownut]

100% chance of winter storm for mountains. Upstate gfs says 1inch this run. I’d be happy with 1inch vs nothing. But that’s not my idea of a storm. So I’d still call it possible for upstate

Parts of the upstate are showing up to 6" you must just be looking at one location. Not the upstate as a whole

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[Jessy89]

Parts of the upstate are showing up to 6" you must just be looking at one location. Not the upstate as a whole

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I’m just south of Pickens close to the airport. I’m just basing that on the most recent gfs which was warmer. I’m personally pulling on the euro to be right that drops 6-12 on upstate north of 85

 

[Ethan80963]

How long till euro comes out?

 

[Nam0806]

How long till euro comes out?

Should be around 1 am EST

 

[Mitch West]

I’m

18z GFS simulated radar, still projecting a prolonged winter event.

if only the radar would actually look like this.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Piedmont Triad and Foothills. Even some snow deduction is needed here...by up to 10-20% from the clown maps. Obviously still impressive amounts of 6-12”+. Sleet will be propelled as far north as Mount Airy...at times.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What happened to the fv3?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Western foothills (west of Wilkesboro) into the mountains of Ashe, Watauga and Alleghany. Very small reduction needed...0 to 10% in some areas on the clown maps. Sleet may struggle making an appearance for any meaningful length of time. Expect local economies to suffer heading into the Christmas season. Travel will be impossible.

 

[SimeonNC]

I think it's safe to say at least someone is getting something. Deleted the possible from the title.

Thanks, I was going to do it when I get home from work.

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[ForsythSnow]

The FV3 is... I looked and thought it was the 18Z but it's not there. 12Z never finished so maybe it broke.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Hopefully it will be back up and running for tonights 00z runs. This place will be needing all the models we can get

 

[WeatherLC]

How come the cad regions aren’t showing
More zr on the models?