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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

BirdManDoomW said:
Western foothills (west of Wilkesboro) into the mountains of Ashe, Watauga and Alleghany. Very small reduction needed...0 to 10% in some areas on the clown maps. Sleet may struggle making an appearance for any meaningful length of time. Expect local economies to suffer heading into the Christmas season. Travel will be impossible.
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Would love to go to west jefferson in this
 
My first prediction on totals. Up to 2 feet in the NC mountains. Isolated locations and mountain tops may approach 3 feet or more. Foothills...10-14” expected with locally higher totals approaching 20” above 2,000 feet. Piedmont Triad...Winston-GSO...6-12” possible with some sleet accumulation too. 4-8” south and east of there with major sleet. Big cities...Raleigh and Charlotte...1-3” with some 3-6”+ totals across portions of the two counties. I do NOT expect any sig. ZR due to heavy rates and marginable temps. Heavy sleet accumulations are possible anywhere from Statesville to Charlotte to High Point.
 
Here's context after it's finished I believe:

snod.conus.png
 
I believe their is no chance for me here in east central Mississippi as of now ! I hope things change. I sure would love to be in gatlinburg this weekend that’s for sure !
 
It will come to a time we "throw out" most of the models, except for sort range models and simulated radar. I think the simulated radars that I've been posting are handing the CAD better than the typical model.
 
I may be bitting a little early but I do not foresee anymore significant track changes. Temperatures I think will trend slightly cooler which could help ratios for a select few on here but way too early to know any fine details. Sleet and IP lines will likely waver 35 miles back and fourth from the heart of Raleigh or Charlotte.
 
WxWatch said:
It will come to a time we "throw out" most of the models, except for sort range models and simulated radar. I think the simulated radars that I've been posting are handing the CAD better than the typical model.
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Typically the reg models almost always underestimates the CAD. More than likely this will be colder in the CAD areas than models are showing

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fv3 here maybe? http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/

The 18 z here does not look like the op gfs at all. if I had to compare, I'd sam more like the 6z GFS?? Timing is more like the old runs of the GFS unlike the 18z op gfs that had the timing of the EURO up here and not starting until Sun afternoon as opposed to Sat midnight on the GFS here and earlier GFS and FV3 runs
 
Tarheel1 said:
Only wet S of 85! Per Chris J
God I want him to be wrong! He sure seemed smug about it too!
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I guess he just ignored the Euro and the Ukie and every other model that went south today. I don’t think they believe the 1039-1040 HP. That’s ok. When he jumps on board, we get screwed anyway.
 
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