stephend122080
Member
00z CFS ensemble mean 500 mb
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
woke up to latest GFS giving me 5 inches in my backyard, happy friday. can't begin to describe the relief i feel living north of roxboro
Miller B's can produce but CAD situations are nothing to be really excited about for my part of the mountains. The CAD is very close but blocked by the range of mountains that are over 4000ft just to our east. 33F and rain is the name of the game for CAD for us.
A nice Miller A with cold air in place would be awesome but damn. These models are going to have a hard time for a few more "minutes".
A nice Miller A with cold air in place would be awesome but damn. These models are going to have a hard time for a few more "minutes".
NCSNOW
Member
My yard is a swamp already, same for the pasteurs. Did a 180 and need some dry days.
NCSNOW
Member
The MA has to be drooling with this forecasted NAO/Block. They jackpotted in 2010 three separate times foot plus storms.
Responding to your post from yesterday afternoon. As we all know the overnight runs now show a colder solution for CAD areas. That may still not work out for a lot of us, but the real point is we can't believe any model details out past day 7 (or even less). --> A suggestion to everybody; we should create a thread that only focuses on model runs and forecast that are less than day 7.
I think the GFS is a bit extreme but the thing about raging -NAOs is they have the effect of spiking the punch bowl, it opens the door for extreme solutions. nice to have a thing to look at.
I have and continue to maintain a sunnier view of models; they aren't perfect but both the long range accuracy, as well as the ability of ensembles to generally illuminate the range of possibilities at hand, are remarkable in my opinion. Shifts like this are perfectly reasonable to me.
Yeah, I guess folks here take that into account. It's just the rollercoaster of changes that have been depicted over the last couple of weeks have been maddening. If we had a hard cutoff of (say) 7 days, then have good folks like you provide some analysis, forecast perspective might be a little less chaotic. But it's all good...
Christmas is finally in range on the GFS and the first run is workable 
? 
? 
NoSnowATL
Member
Have the L just south of Mexico Beach and we all party.Christmas is finally in range on the GFS and the first run is workable
Way out there so almost noise range but if that is an anchored or building HP (1033) and not retreating could be a winner. My guess is it's transient though. We'll see.Christmas is finally in range on the GFS and the first run is workable
Yeah it’s so far out there that it’s meaningless, but you still love to see it shown regardless.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just an amazing overall trend we've seen on the models the last few days for the end of next week. Definitely a very real threat of a Miller B.
packfan98
Moderator
Reminder to put the banter and side discussions in a different thread. Thanks.
Oconeexman
Member
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The gfs had traditionally been awful at picking up on CAD set ups and specifics. Maybe this updated version will be really good for CAD???
Hard for me to tell if that's an improvement for NC.
Hypsometric
Member
More and more of another piece of tpv diving south (which is what is disrupting the ridging west of Greenland). Does this trend continue? Can it actually interact with the storm system next week?
Icon trending to the GFS ?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Also worth noting the ICON is usually pretty warm with 2m temps, just a bias it has.
Oh my 
also worth mentioning that despite me being a cheerleader i'll acknowledge models will be handicapped a little next few weeks with shorter wavelengths and a more amplified pattern. idk where to find those model verification charts but i would bet you'll see a dip from here onward as the models grapple with a weirder than average pattern. so i think the complaint of "man what the hell these models are way too wishy washy" is more relevant than usual
Just ice for the escarpment, but pretty insane trend here 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
When the ICON is even trending this way at this lead time, that’s a warning bell for me.
iGRXY
Member
Yeah, The NEGA, Upstate, and Foothills need to watch this extremely closely. Globals honking like this in the day 6-7 range with plenty of time to continue with more CAD is really interesting.
At this range, you can easily knock off 5 degrees in that CAD. We saw that with the ICON in the first storm last January
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Curious if that holds the next few runs. As you allude to, the ICON has a pretty nasty warm bias, and if even this model is hinting at CAD-induced ZR/IP, that's definitely a red flag.
NCSNOW
Member
Yep all the ops are not so good on cad, even euro. The warmest is always ICOn and usually Can Op catches on 1st, sane with RGEM verse NAM. CAN OP to its credit was sniffing this out past couple days, not to the depth GFS is .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z GFS thus far looks even better than the 6z
Looking like basic climo NW piedmont and Appalachian’s as expected
Looks like it backed off.
Not bad for the norther NC Piedmont northwards. This was actually a better run for RDU and eastward:
And here we go with this time period showing up on the models again. I think this one has real legs with how much it's been showing on the models off and on for the past couple of weeks.
Getting ready for that 33-36 degree rain were the NAMs suck us in the the long-medium range only to warm up last minute. We see these close calls every year and they always fall short
3 run trend. Like Nicky said, about what you would expect. 
Would expect a continued backing off of this .. no snow pack to the north and our cut off is near Chicago .. I’ll take NW piedmont and predominantly Appalachian mountains for 600 please!
NCSNOW
Member
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Would expect a continued backing off of this .. no snow pack to the north and our cut off is near Chicago .. I’ll take NW piedmont and predominantly Appalachian mountains for 600 please!
Tend to agree. Your traditional CAD areas are most likely at this point.
Tend to agree. Your traditional CAD areas are most likely at this point.