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Pattern Dazzling December

Stevo24 said:
Where’s all the good weenie runs we were expecting with this great patten?
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Sometimes it can be a cold pattern and not snow, sometimes it can snow in a warm pattern, Sometimes model runs don't show snow for their run but it snows in that 10-16 day time frame, Sometimes models show a foot of snow at 36 hours and it rains.
 
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^^Yep, RDU shows near a half inch of freezing rain, but that occurs with temps of 31/32 degrees. So the accretion would be very limited. Maybe (right now) something to look for in the NW Piedmont/Foothills. Need that CAD to build in stronger with some cold/dry air in the upcoming model runs.
 
Snow down to the valley floor in Downtown Tucson is looking more and more likely with every run. GFS and Euro have me picking up about an inch ?. Mountains going to get buried. 2ft+ possible in Summerhaven and the ski resort 1hr from Tucson!

IT’S HAPPENING!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Now what I could see is us seeing some backside snow showers or just flurries as this is looking more and more Miller B ish .. that could be the saving Grace .. I would love to just see flakes fall in December!
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I could see that. Lots of energy flying around on the backside as the colder airmass comes in. We’ve certainly seen that some over the years. I’m with you about having a hard time seeing much outside of the foothills and nw Piedmont though… just not enough snow cover to the north yet. Now a few days later, that might be a different story
 
CaryWx said:
I'm seeing weaker trend over eastern seaboard unless I'm missing something here.
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The wave is getting sheared in multiple directions. But we are in the middle of a HUGE model shift. There's a vortex diving like mad out of Canada and it's one/two more runs away from phasing in with our next week storm (if the trend continues), which could set off a bomb near Newfoundland and really set the stage for a suppressed follow up wave.

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Hypsometric said:
The wave is getting sheared in multiple directions. But we in the middle of a HUGE model shift. There's a vortex diving like mad out of Canada and it's one/two more runs away from phasing in with our next week storm (if the trend continues), which could set off a bomb near Newfoundland and really set the stage for a suppressed follow up wave.

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It’s already there at hr234 on the GFS ?

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LukeBarrette said:
243

Pants are gone
For some people here
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I’ve said it a couple times in the last week or so, but this is the time frame to watch between the 18-22nd. All the teleconnections look favorable and I believe there will be a sufficient snow pack in place to the north. Don’t get caught up in specifics like this one look yet…a lot of folks could be in play at this time
 
This first wave is interesting but I think you want it to set the stage for the 2nd potential around the 20th. That's where I think we have a legit at something. As others alluded, that large chunk of TPV diving southeast is about 1 run away from a phase in the 50/50 area and bombing off. That is a huge deal. Tons of confluence and CAD potential. That's extremely interesting to see where this goes and the GEFS signaling that stout of a CAD is also interesting.
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve said it a couple times in the last week or so, but this is the time frame to watch between the 18-22nd. All the teleconnections look favorable and I believe there will be a sufficient snow pack in place to the north. Don’t get caught up in specifics like this one look yet…a lot of folks could be in play at this time
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Exactly. Looks like a wedge is at play here in NC. Either building, stubborn, or retreating.
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve said it a couple times in the last week or so, but this is the time frame to watch between the 18-22nd. All the teleconnections look favorable and I believe there will be a sufficient snow pack in place to the north. Don’t get caught up in specifics like this one look yet…a lot of folks could be in play at this time
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Yep right now everyone should ignore surface features for the second wave. We are trying to get the Atlantic set for a suppressed second wave with good confluence over New England. If you can check those two items and have energy approaching with that in place, the odds are high for widespread wintry weather across the south. And we are so far out, the energy coming in the next wave will likely dramatically change as well anyways from how it’s modeled now.
 
Chazwin said:
I gotta say, I’ve never really payed a lot of attention to the CFS but it’s been fairly consistent on this pattern change and has been fairly good on the timing of it for the last several weeks
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I agree. It’s most likely overdone but still nice to see


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Hypsometric said:
More and more of another piece of tpv diving south (which is what is disrupting the ridging west of Greenland). Does this trend continue? Can it actually interact with the storm system next week?

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Hypsometric said:
Hah, yeah we aren't done with this story yet.

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This is a great observation from Hypso on the trend loop. In a split flow regime, the most important piece (IMO) is the strong low / trough over / off New England as this is the feature, when properly located, acts to keep waves tracking into the S Plains from climbing north as Hypso mentioned. I've never been a big fan of the term 50/50 low because that term is very NE Blizzard - centric (low at 50N / 50W off Newfoundland). For us in the south, we typically want to see that low farther to the S/SW, but there are all kinds of configurations that low can take on. Also, a lot of times, there are shortwaves that track thru the Great Lakes and feed into this low that end up being critical for the maintenance of the low and associated timing with the approaching southern stream wave.

Last point - a big west-based -NAO block helps with the formation of these big lows underneath the block, but it's not the only way to get the job done as the other main way is to have a big ridge go up in W Canada as shown in Hypso's trend loop
 
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