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Pattern Dazzling December

packfan98 said:
Anyone with access to the weather bell maps want to post a couple of the city EPS meteogram charts? Based off the control run, I’m curious to see if there’s more support for a Christmas miracle. Selfishly, I’d like to see Greensboro.
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There's a couple monsters in this suite.


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The Canadian ensemble also has a couple takers right before Christmas

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JHS said:
At this rate on the GFS we may just stay dry next week with no big pattern changing event at all. Many of us have gone from 2+ of rain down to .25 or so The low just goes towards the lake and dies.
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The rain can take a hike regardless of a pattern change. I've gotten nearly 7" in 8 days and my creek has been out it's banks the whole time. All the ponds are filled again.
 
Yeah we are on a surplus from a rain standpoint and all these CAD days are keeping things damp. If it hasn’t been raining It’s been heavy misting with fog nonstop for the last week outside of a few hours on sunlight yesterday morning. And that doesn’t look to be ending whatsoever
 
JHS said:
At this rate on the GFS we may just stay dry next week with no big pattern changing event at all. Many of us have gone from 2+ of rain down to .25 or so The low just goes towards the lake and dies.
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It has been and still is raining in ATL< over 2,6 inches so far today since midnight.
 
Nothing on the 18z GEFS?


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Chazwin said:
Yeah and mods feel free to move this to banter but the worst part was the Georgia Governor and Atlanta Mayor trying to deflect all the blame on the NWS despite their forecast ending up correct.
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What's interesting is the gefs was on the cold weather train and since departed it lol. Now the euro switched places. Is the gfs and gefs really that bad or is euro and eps that bad? ??
 
Itryatgolf said:
What's interesting is the gefs was on the cold weather train and since departed it lol. Now the euro switched places. Is the gfs and gefs really that bad or is euro and eps that bad?
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The GEFS doesn’t even look that warm to me lol. It just warms up a bit around the 20th then quickly goes back to cold. At least that was 12z


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Loganelliott99 said:
The GEFS doesn’t even look that warm to me lol. It just warms up a bit around the 20th then quickly goes back to cold. At least that was 12z


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Euro and eps was real cold, which supports the +EAMT spike, if correct, should unlock the arctic flood gates.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Definitely a warming trend around the 20th on the GEFS.
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I'd hardly call 2 data sets a "trend". This doesn't even mention how the skill of the GFS at this range right now doesn't seem very consistent. If you have an eye out at H5 or even that big blob of cold air you'd know there's at least consistency in a cold air push which should be the focus, not 6 degrees of cooling hours 11 days out.
 
00z op gfs looks a lot like the 18z. No real push in cold air. It's delayed a bit and just kind of bleeds through. I wouldn't even call it a cold front but a zonal flow. Again the ensembles have not been supporting this. If the Euro is right with blowing the front through then something is very wrong with the gfs. The freaking update broke it....
 
GFS next Friday afternoon has warmed significantly while the Icon has remained fairly steady. How they can be so different is crazy.

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Met1985 said:
00z op gfs looks a lot like the 18z. No real push in cold air. It's delayed a bit and just kind of bleeds through. I wouldn't even call it a cold front but a zonal flow. Again the ensembles have not been supporting this. If the Euro is right with blowing the front through then something is very wrong with the gfs. The freaking update broke it....
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At first glance it looks not great but this is air that’s still plenty cold enough to support some winter weather with the suppressed storm track and blocking over top .. and the gfs is certainly playing with that idea right now .. cold enough for a thumping of snow with a dynamic system. Still gfs is a bad model so this is just eye candy but I won’t budge on believing anything it says until CMC but more importantly the euro agrees with it
 
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