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Pattern Dazzling December

Euro
sfcmslp.conus.png


GFS
sfcwind_mslp.conus.png
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
12Z Euro was a big nod to the GFS for the CAD threat.
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Eh .. for Appalachians it remains the same everyone else gets cold rain .. per what climo tells us should happen .. unless this thing goes full Miller B like the gfs is trying it’s hardest to do, I wouldn’t bank on anyone else seeing frozen precip than the mountains.
 
packfan98 said:
End of the GFS looks great! Merry Christmas!
500h_anom.conus.png
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It's one of the better long range patterns we've seen for cold. That said, we know with just about 100% certainty that it's way too suppressed at this lead. You see some kinks in the flow out west indicative of energy upstairs. It will get squashed with this look, but like I said, it's too suppressed. If this general pattern comes to fruition, there would be a chance for wintry weather here for sure.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png
 
Euro and Canadian suggest the upslope is in play on backside of the mid week event.

By the way the change is officially here at GSO. We have like one shot left to hit our avg High temp, maybe exceed by 1-2 degrees on Monday possibly. Thats it as we will hang out in the 40's for highs and lower than 40s for highs on multiple occasions through Christmas. Sitting at a cool 48 currently!
 
NCSNOW said:
Euro and Canadian suggest the upslope is in play on backside of the mid week event.

By the way the change is officially here at GSO. We have like one shot left to hit our avg High temp, maybe exceed by 1-2 degrees on Monday possibly. Thats it as we will hang out in the 40's for highs and lower than 40s for highs on multiple occasions through Christmas. Sitting at a cool 48 currently!
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Yeah we've been missing our daily high here by 10 to 15 degrees this week. Sitting ar 46 currently.
 
GSP is running +2 for the month with the worst behind us. The blowtorch of the last couple days +9 and +15.4 hit the average hard. But the next few days look seasonal, maybe slightly above due to overnight lows in the 40s. If the long range comes to fruition we may have to at least entertain the idea that our 12 year streak of above average December could possibly end.
 
We know this will change, but this general pattern is loaded with phasing potential. I think the vortex under the block has the potential to slide further east due to the trends discussed above with the precursor storm and TPV interactions (a positive) and be stronger, and if we can keep the energy diving down the ridge and take a suppressed track a big dog, phased Miller A bomb is absolutely one possible outcome.

ecmwf_z500_vort_namer_fh216-240.gif
 
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Hypsometric said:
We know this will change, but this general pattern is loaded with phasing potential. I think the vortex under the block has the potential to slide further east due to the trends discussed above with the precursor storm and TPV interactions (a positive) and be stronger, and if we can keep the energy diving down the ridge and take a suppressed track a big dog, phased Miller A bomb is absolutely one possible outcome.

View attachment 125279
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That's a nice split flow with a lot of cold air lurking nearby in Canada. I'm not sure I want to see the top of that ridge out west roll over like that, as it will direct the trough back towards the west. You'd get a nice phase over the Plains in that case.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_65.png
 
Rain Cold said:
That's a nice split flow with a lot of cold air lurking nearby in Canada. I'm not sure I want to see the top of that ridge out west roll over like that, as it will direct the trough back towards the west. You'd get a nice phase over the Plains in that case.

View attachment 125282
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I agree. I think (hope) this could be fixed if the vortex gets pulled further east. We know one thing for darn sure - we don't want the pattern to be *perfect* at D10 because there's no way we could hold that until verification haha.
 
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