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Pattern Dazzling December

Loganelliott99 said:
I honestly think the euro is going to cave. The euro/eps has burned us in giving us several times. They are both so consistent on showing complete opposite outcomes. Will be interesting


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Are you going to ignore verification scores?
 
Stevo24 said:
So what are we doing. Euro showing cold and GFS showing warm. When does one cave?
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At the end of the day just never trust the gfs whether is shows cold or warm/ bad or good.. it’s really just something to look at to see if it can align with the other models but I don’t put a bunch of stock in it especially since it was upgraded with worse verification scores.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Do not be shocked. It happens more often than you think. Warning you now.


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Occasionally it has happened with individual storms in an established pattern, but not with the overall wide scale pattern. The development of the blocking and -NAO has followed right along with the Euro/EPS combo
 
Chazwin said:
Occasionally it has happened with individual storms in an established pattern, but with the overall wide scale pattern. The development of the blocking and -NAO has followed right along with the Euro/EPS combo
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I’ve just heard the the Euro/EPS Have a bad reputation for developing +PNA’s that don’t verify. I understand your point though


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Some thoughts on the pattern going forward, what the heck...

I don't see any reason not to be optimistic of the prospects for wintry weather (i.e. a better than average pattern) for the period Dec 20 to Jan 10 when considering the expected upcoming +EAsia Mtn Torque episodes plus the MJO combining with the La Nina signal and progressing from Indonesia to WPac to SAmerica. I think any slow down of the MJO in the Indian Ocean is just a blip, as this isn't a slow moving MJO that initiates in the Indian Ocean and slowly moves east. Rather, this is more of a weak MJO signal that is cycling, and it doesn't impart a significant signal on the pattern until it combines with the ongoing La Nina convection in the Maritime Continent.

The NAO is a wildcard in my mind. On one hand, we are going to be losing some of the lower stratosphere support for -NAO in the near term (-NAO is 7 times more likely when the lower stratosphere is in a weak state). On the other hand, the aforementioned +EAsia Mtn Torque and MJO progression would favor renewed blocking per historical cases. A pattern of solid western ridging combined with a heavy -NAO would move this pattern to a 5 (excellent).

Post Jan 10, I think we could see a relaxation in wintry prospects.

Those are my thoughts. As always, any long range forecasts / ideas are no better than an educated best guess.

One last thing: every single winter storm / every single cold pattern that has come to fruition has 'faced' mounds of doubters and haters on weather boards and in the cyber world. That's just the way it is. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I’ve just heard the the Euro/EPS Have a bad reputation for developing +PNA’s that don’t verify. I understand your point though


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Ultimately I think it’s going to be a bit of the blend of the two with a lean on the final outcome to the Euro/EPS. I don’t know that we ever see a true +PNA in the pattern as I suspect it will max out around neutral… between 0-.3. That’s ok though because I think the blocking will be strong enough to control the pattern for some time.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I’ve just heard the the Euro/EPS Have a bad reputation for developing +PNA’s that don’t verify. I understand your point though


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Well for those hating on the GEFS let's look at how it's doing vs the EPS in the long range.

This is what the GEFS had a week ago for this upcoming Saturday.Screenshot_20221205_194646_Gallery.jpg

This is what it has now 5 days out when skill is higherScreenshot_20221205_194631_Gallery.jpg

Now the EPS long range
Screenshot_20221205_194606_Gallery.jpg

EPS now for this Saturday
Screenshot_20221205_194616_Gallery.jpg

They both did ok but the nod goes to the GEFS. It had less ridge bridging up top and a signal for a stronger west coast trough than the EPS
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Well for those hating on the GEFS let's look at how it's doing vs the EPS in the long range.

This is what the GEFS had a week ago for this upcoming Saturday.View attachment 124858

This is what it has now 5 days out when skill is higherView attachment 124859

Now the EPS long range
View attachment 124860

EPS now for this Saturday
View attachment 124861

They both did ok but the nod goes to the GEFS. It had less ridge bridging up top and a signal for a stronger west coast trough than the EPS
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Thank you . GEFS is a solid model.


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Stevo24 said:
So what are we doing. Euro showing cold and GFS showing warm. When does one cave?
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Once the details get ironed out. Too many moving parts for the models to be consistent but hey continue to react to the runs individually instead of letting the pattern come around. That’s half the fun.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Thank you . GEFS is a solid model.


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Agreed… of course it’s operational cousin is off it’s rocker a lot of times. I think the thing with these models is that they all have biases that let them pick up on different situations and set ups more effectively than others
 
Hypsometric said:
All you need to do is look at how it’s see sawing run to run. You don’t need to do any further analysis. The GEFS is nothing more than a low res deterministic model. It isn’t setup correctly and does not function the way an ensemble should (IMO). But what do I know?!
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I try not to take any model over 10 days seriously because they all flip flop. They do that inside 7 days some too. But it did look like both the EPS and the GEFS had the general pattern of east coast ridging and west coast troughing for this week correct nearly 300 hrs out. Luck? Probably but the point of that post is the GEFS can't be discounted because it doesn't show what people want. All models are essentially throwing darts at the wall past 10 days.
 
I think we should watch the wpo and epo. If they trend negative, it's going to get cold! The gefs, imo, handles the pacific pretty good so we shall see if eps trends towards gefs or gefs trends towards the eps. They should never have touched the gfs with updating it. They say don't fix what's not broken??. It was better before this change or whatever they did to it
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I try not to take any model over 10 days seriously because they all flip flop. They do that inside 7 days some too. But it did look like both the EPS and the GEFS had the general pattern of east coast ridging and west coast troughing for this week correct nearly 300 hrs out. Luck? Probably but the point of that post is the GEFS can't be discounted because it doesn't show what people want. All models are essentially throwing darts at the wall past 10 days.
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Ultimately what I look for is consistency and does it make sense. To me during the last 7-10 days, the EPS has really been very steady and consistent with it’s depiction and it continues to make sense with how the pattern reacts to high latitude blocking. The GEFS to me has seen some wild swings at times. Also like I said earlier it’s important to know the biases and we know that historically the EPS handles strong blocking better and what it does to the overall pattern
 
Stevo24 said:
What is this showing
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It’s showing a trend, and I use that word loosely when referring to the GFS, towards higher heights along the east coast and lower heights back west. Big change in the last 48 hours. Unfavorable but no one was really expecting this time period to produce. I think the only concern to be had is the kicking of the can. When does it stop?
 
Been watching my weather station back home today and I have to say that’s been a pretty persistent band of rain moving through north Georgia all day. Looks like it has been nearly continuous light to moderate rain there since about 1:15 PM

Already approaching 1.75” for the day and looks like a few more hours of rain are possible tonight. In addition to the 2.5” last week and there’s been a pretty decent burst of rainfall these past 7 days.
 
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