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Pattern Dazzling December

Meanwhile 00z UKMET looked like it was setting up for a monster. Initial "cutting" low so far north that it would help push a secondary low at hr 144 south towards a boundary near the gulf coast.. classic miller A setup there if it went out past 144 hrs.

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bouncycorn said:
First system on ECMWF cuts.. second system is suppressed into the middle of the GOM.. great.
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I joked the other day that I never worry about suppression (after all, we have like, what, 10-15 days a year when it's even cold enough for wintry precipitation), and I mentioned that if I saw lows running from Mexico City to Havana, it wouldn't bother me a bit. Well, the Euro just did that, lol. But it really wasn't that far off from the GFS here. Just give it a touch more spacing and room to breathe and it's good to go. It's a good position to be in 10 days out

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Pac ridge slightly flatter 1st system, nod to the Euro and Ukmet. Don't like the trends at all with that one. On to the next one

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Chances for scattered snow showers (possibly mixed with rain)
will be possible, but confidence is shaky. An outside chance for
some wintry mix is possible for the high elevations of North
Georgia Tuesday morning, with a better possibility Thursday
morning. The big fly in the ointment is a scrappy, occasional GFS
run putting in a pre- Christmas snow storm across North Georgia
Thursday Night into Friday morning. In this instance, this
solution is an outlier, but enough to warrant a slight chance for
snow across North Georgia at this time, with plenty of time
between now and then for the forecast to go one way or the other.
It`s too early to say whether North Georgia could have a White
Christmas, but it`s not entirely outside the realm of
possibilities at this point.

FROM NWS
 
Seems as though the first system we have multiple ways to score something here in NC. As for areas outside of here y’all need the tall ridge even more than we do. I’ll take absolutely whatever Mother Nature gives us as long as it’s wintry. I like to see that our second system has multiple ways of producing either overrunning or a miller A.. it’s much easier to get a widespread winter storm down here when you get the cold air established first.
 
The 6z GFS backed down for Wednesday night - Thursday system. The 0z showed a small event for Raleigh NE to just west of Virginia Beach. The European and Candian also show the potential event, but surface temps are warmer (less CAD). Funny thing is the 6z GFS was actually a little stronger with the CAD, just less precip. So in short, we need to continue looking at this first potential.
 
This past Monday I knew as much about my backyard weather forecast for the period Wednesday Dec 21 through Dec 26th as I do today, 5 days latter.

Today we should start getting things ironed out at 12z and again by 0z tonight. That Ukmet warning shot from several runs back, has had me worried. Espeacilly in light of the 0z Euro spitting out a Lakes Cutter.

The Ukmet is notorious for sniffing out Phased storms and forecasting them. MODEOLOGY is a tough business
 
FallsLake said:
I don't trust anything right now. All we can take from these runs is that we have a chance... Need to get within 5 days of these events.
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We are days away from the pieces being sampled and really nailing down the forecast. We are also in that range where storms like to "disappear" before coming back in the 2-3 day range. I'm not sweating any run right now just watching the ensembles
 
I'd love to be wrong but I'd lean Euro/Ukie with 1st system, probably inland too warm for most except higher elevation. I'm concerned the impressive cold press after will suppress 2nd system but NW shifts, historically, are more doable then SE one's. We shall see
 
With overrunning you’re going to get a relapse of last year. Front end FGEN driven moisture out ahead of the main system. That’s the reason why we got widespread 5-8” of snow before a switch over to sleet and ZR. Models had us with maybe 1-2” of front end snow before a switch over so this has front end over performer written all over it if this is how it actually goes. It’s a very long duration event. MBY for example gets about 9.5” between the 2 systems before 3-4” of sleet. Realistically it’s probably would be closer to a foot before the switch over with FGEN banding. But be happy with whatever you get
 
The differences on 500mb vort maps across southern Canada from the west coast to especially off the NE coast by hour 72 is really amazing. Explains how we got Globals going in diff directions with regards to sensible weather from that point onward. Got to get the big pieces pegged just right and we aren't exactly there yet.
 
Shaggy said:
We are days away from the pieces being sampled and really nailing down the forecast. We are also in that range where storms like to "disappear" before coming back in the 2-3 day range. I'm not sweating any run right now just watching the ensembles
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Yeah, it does seem the five-day disappearing act is real. It's almost like a day 7 model run is better than day 5.
 
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