Pattern Dazzling December

[Myfrotho704_]

Starting to get more bullish on a solid cold period east of the Rockies to the Deep South from just before Christmas into the 1st week of January. I think we'll see modeling improve with that as we go thru next week. Excellent sequence shown on the EPS for +EAsiaMtnTorq with strong high moving into SE Asia (1st loop). This should combine with the tropical convective signal emerging into the WPac next week (2nd loop) to move us into a --EPO / +PNA look. In addition, this sequence during La Nina favors a continuation of the current generally negative AO / NAO regime (3rd image).

See: https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather...-predict-north-atlantic-and-european-weather/

"...During La Niña years we also find the teleconnection from the MJO phases 6–8 makes the NAO– regime occur up to 2.5 times as often as the full climatology – this signal travels via the stratosphere, warming it and slowing the stratospheric polar vortex (Figure 4), with the total pathway taking around 20 days. There is a strong subseasonal link between the stratospheric polar vortex and the weather regimes throughout all winters [7], however, it is during La Niña years when there is the strongest subseasonal link between the MJO and the stratosphere [6]."

It’s interesting. Last dec-jan the lower stratosphere (30-50mb) became unfavorable for blocking into late dec/January as we ended up getting the WPAC forcing regime to setup that gave us the -EPO/+PNA combo. Hudson Bay vortex setup but absolutely no blocking, fast flow and sheared waves, very timing reliant. Looks like this time that strat becomes less favorable but not as unfavorable as -NAM continues to show up especially the lower down you go, but I see lots of wave breaking on the smoothed Ensemble means. Really wanna try this pattern out with a block, considering fast flow was the problem last jan.

 

[SD]

Starting to get more bullish on a solid cold period east of the Rockies to the Deep South from just before Christmas into the 1st week of January. I think we'll see modeling improve with that as we go thru next week. Excellent sequence shown on the EPS for +EAsiaMtnTorq with strong high moving into SE Asia (1st loop). This should combine with the tropical convective signal emerging into the WPac next week (2nd loop) to move us into a --EPO / +PNA look. In addition, this sequence during La Nina favors a continuation of the current generally negative AO / NAO regime (3rd image).

See: https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather...-predict-north-atlantic-and-european-weather/

"...During La Niña years we also find the teleconnection from the MJO phases 6–8 makes the NAO– regime occur up to 2.5 times as often as the full climatology – this signal travels via the stratosphere, warming it and slowing the stratospheric polar vortex (Figure 4), with the total pathway taking around 20 days. There is a strong subseasonal link between the stratospheric polar vortex and the weather regimes throughout all winters [7], however, it is during La Niña years when there is the strongest subseasonal link between the MJO and the stratosphere [6]."

I'm nervous that we get the pacific ridge oriented incorrectly or off by like 2 degrees and we take an L here. That said all signs do point to go. I think even if we were to fail early it would be similar to last year where we would eventually get there

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I'm nervous that we get the pacific ridge oriented incorrectly or off by like 2 degrees and we take an L here. That said all signs do point to go. I think even if we were to fail early it would be similar to last year where we would eventually get there

Trough just east of HI backs up or the Aleutian low lifts, we get a ---- tilt/Nina esque NPAC ridge. That’s the scary part

 

[SD]

Trough just east of HI backs up or the Aleutian low lifts, we get a ---- tilt/Nina esque NPAC ridge. That’s the scary part

Yep it's the same fight we fight when this pac ridge goes up. We win big or we take a fat L there's not much middle ground. Like i said I think we are good this time but if you aren't sweating a little bit can you give me that confidence

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

We complaining about below normal now?

I wouldn’t call it complaining. I just think it’s worth pointing out that all major ensembles have a warming trend around the 21st through Christmas Eve. . It’s still around average but it’s been backing off each run. I just feel like that’s worth mentioning


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[Ron Burgundy]

Nice trend GFS View attachment 125334

#Merica

 

[SD]

I wouldn’t call it complaining. I just think it’s worth pointing out that all major ensembles have a warming trend around the 21st through Christmas Eve. . It’s still around average but it’s been backing off each run. I just feel like that’s worth mentioning


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Do you understand why that's happening? Have you looked at the plumes to see what's changing or are you just throwing out a post salad? I'm asking this honestly not trying to be a ----

 

[Rain Cold]

Yep it's the same fight we fight when this pac ridge goes up. We win big or we take a fat L there's not much middle ground. Like i said I think we are good this time but if you aren't sweating a little bit can you give me that confidence

The D10 Euro shows how to do it the right way, but it's hard to put a lot of stock in one 10 day deterministic model run, particularly when the other two major suites show something different. Whatever the orientation of features at H5, we absolutely need the PV in eastern Canada, pressing the height field south. With the propensity for blocking this year, I'd give that pretty good odds of verifying at some point soon. Will there be any stability to it? That's a different question and harder to foresee.

At the very least, we should have a period of alignment between high latitude blocking with very cold air on our side of the globe coming up soon. We could do worse.

 

[Broken024]

Anyone have the EPS snow mean from last night?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Do you understand why that's happening? Have you looked at the plumes to see what's changing or are you just throwing out a post salad? I'm asking this honestly not trying to be a ----

Yeah I do after going back and reading everything


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

CAD/Fog/Mist for 7th day in a row. 43 degrees

 

[tennessee storm]

Pretty Nice signal on the EPS, no big dawgs but lots of light members, rather have that then a few big

James Spann said get ready for a cold Christmas View attachment 125383

key word POTENTIALLY lol

 

[Nomanslandva]

CAD/Fog/Mist for 7th day in a row. 43 degrees

Same here, this rots! I cant tell you the last time I saw the sun.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s hot

 

[iGRXY]

CAD/Fog/Mist for 7th day in a row. 43 degrees

Can’t see above about 750-1000 ft on the mountains around here. If it isn’t raining, it’s been misting and down right chilly with fog.

 

[iGRXY]

That’s hot View attachment 125389View attachment 125390

If this went out past 180, we would’ve been cooking with grease here.

 

[Fountainguy97]

Gfs has more separation between the two systems at 12z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Big changes out west this run, instead of connection between the 2 troughs (central and western US), the cutoff is retrograding back into the pacific. Western ridge incoming
Last run


This run

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GFS folding. Flat energy go bye bye. Should bode well for mountain peeps after the front swings through